2015 MLB Preview: NL East

We are now just five days away from kicking off the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means I need to get back to the predictions.

Yesterday saw a look at the American League East, and today we're swapping leagues while staying out east. Last year's predictions for this division were much more on the money, other than being swapped around at the bottom. Like last year, this division has a clear favorite, though the wild card chances are probably greatly diminished.

2015 MLB Preview: AL East

Spring is upon us. It's starting to warm up again (finally), we've had about a month of spring training baseball to whet the appetite, and we're just a week away from lighting mups at Wrigley Field.

So, as is my custom, I'm going to go division by division and take a look at all 30 clubs, complete with predictions. I look forward to totally overrating a couple clubs while some surprises sneak in and throw everything off, as happens every year.

Since last year's World Series champion came out of the National League West, I'm starting in the opposite league on the opposite coast. You can view last year's AL East predictions here.

Mr. Mitzel's Extra Credit Opportunity- Week 2

Welcome back O'Neill Middle School students! Last week, Mrs. Mitzel offered you some extra credit points for answering a couple math questions related to the NCAA Tournament. With the field now narrowed down to the Sweet 16, we've decided to offer another opportunity for some extra credit.

Before we get to this week's questions, here's an answer key from last week. I heard there were some questions about the answers this week, so hopefully this will clear it up a little bit.

1. You guys have learned about percents and the percent proportion, so we'll apply it to last year's NCAA Tournament bracket. Of all the "Second Round/Round of 64" games last year, what percentage of those games were "upsets"? (For those of you who aren't familiar with the NCAA Tournament or sports in general: the bracket is split up into four groups of 16 teams who receive a "seed", a number from 1 to 16. The 1 seed is the best team, the 2 seed is second best, and so on. An "upset" is where the team with a higher number seed wins over the team with the lower number seed. For example, the 12 seed beating the 5 seed would be an upset.)

Looking at the 2014 bracket, there are 32 games in the "Second Round/Round of 64". Of those games, eight met the definition of an "upset": #9 Pitt beating #8 Colorado, #12 Stephen F. Austin beating #5 VCU, #11 Dayton beating #6 Ohio State, #10 Stanford beating #7 New Mexico, #12 Harvard beating #5 Cincinnati, #12 North Dakota State beating #5 Oklahoma, #11 Tennessee beating #6 Massachusetts, and #14 Mercer beating #3 Duke. So, using the percent proportion, we multiply 8 by 100 and divide that by 32. 8*100 = 800; 800/32 = 25. So, 25 percent of the "Second Round/Round of 64" games last year were upsets. However, in talking to Mrs. Mitzel, it sounds like some of you misunderstood what I meant by "Second Round", and looked at the "Third Round/Round of 32" instead (not your fault; the NCAA is dumb). Those of you who found five upsets were correct, and out of 16 games, the correct answer would be 31.25 percent.

2. We're going to try a probability question. Starting on Thursday, the field of 64 will start playing, and by Sunday, only 16 teams (known as the "Sweet 16") will still be in the Tournament. If you pick one team out of the 64, what is the probability that they will make the Sweet 16? Express this answer as a percent (rounded to the nearest whole number), a decimal (rounded to the nearest hundredth), and a fraction.

Dictionary.com defines probability as "the relative possibility that an event will occur, as expressed by the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences." Basically, you're dividing the number of outcomes you want by the total number of possible outcomes. A good comparison would be to take a bag of 64 marbles. 16 are blue, 20 are red, 24 are green, and 4 are yellow, and you want to know what the probability of drawing a blue marble would be. This would mean you divide 16 by 64. 16/64 = 1/4 = 0.25 =25%.

If you have any further questions, you can leave them in the comments below or ask Mrs. Mitzel. In the meantime, here is this week's question.

1. You guys may have learned about this last year, but if not, you will have to look up how to do it (yes, you can use Google). Look at the bracket and take note of the seeds (this will be the number next to each team listed on games scheduled for either March 26th or March 27th) of the 16 remaining teams. Find the mean, median, and mode of this set of data. Round all answers to the nearest hundredth.

Like last week, please send your answers back to Mrs. Mitzel in an email by the end of school on Thursday. Mrs. Mitzel will give you an extra credit point for each of these correct answers. On top of those, for a possible additional extra credit point, look at the Sweet 16, and pick one team that you think will make the Final Four. Here's the catch: you cannot pick the same team that you picked last week. So those of you who wasted your extra credit point on Kentucky last week... sorry, I'm not sorry. If whatever team you pick does make it, you will get that bonus point.

NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

We're down to 64 teams. And with that, the best four day stretch in all of sports can begin.

Adam and I have spent the last three days hard at work looking over the bracket, thinking about possibilities, rethinking them, and writing up predictions on what we think will happen. Today, we finish stuff out just in time for the opening tip.

With time running out, if you're still looking for a pool to join, you can join the official Confessions of a Sportscaster pool. I'm pretty sure it closes when the games start, so time is short.

And with that, here's our thoughts on the West region.

The Future of Football

With the NFL's offseason in full swing, a lot of crazy stuff has been happening. We've been documenting it over on UKEndzone. Between podcasts and articles, you can keep up with just about everything going on. Yet with the new discussions going on this week, I feel compelled to address what everyone else is talking about.

On Monday, San Francisco 49ers linebacker Chris Borland shocked the world by announcing his retirement. He had just finished a rookie year where he played all but the final two games, and still racked up 84 solo tackles, a sack, five pass deflections, two picks and a fumble recovery. He earned my vote for Defensive Rookie of the Year, which helped him place fourth in UKEndzone's voting.

Screenshot from overthecap.com.

He was in line to replace Patrick Willis at middle linebacker for a 49er team that was falling apart. He was on a pace to make about $3 million over the course of his rookie deal, and made about $600,000 in that one year. He'll have to return some of that with his retirement, but he commented that it's not about the money. To him, it's all about his health and being able to spend time with his family. I'm sure it was a tough decision to make, and I commend him for it.

Of course, the meatheads came out in full force after the fact. One major rule of the Internet is "Don't read the comments," though I do anyway because some of them are amusing. Of course, you had the obligatory "Borland is a quitter," "The pussification of America continues," "You're screwing over your team," comments, all of which are easily refutable and I won't waste my time doing so here. The alarming thing, however, comes from some professionals. SI's Michael Rosenberg penned a piece that boggles the mind (I linked to a tweet and not the article, because I refuse to give SI ad revenue for clicks to asinine content), and then, not to be outdone, an NFL shill came out to respond to Borland's appearance on Outside the Lines today.

Here's the thing: riding a bike or a skateboard can cause harm, yes. So can youth football. Concussion protocol has improved in the NFL, and by extension, at the NCAA, high school, and even youth levels. Problem is, it's not just concussions. All those little hits to the head add up over time. As more research has been done, it comes out that changes have needed to be made, but none of that disputes the fact that yes, football can be dangerous, even if it is "safer than ever before."

Photo by Patrick Kunzer (Daily Herald)

Don't get me wrong: I love football. I have since I was a kid. It wouldn't have comprised just less than 50 percent of the posts on Confessions of a Sportscaster (a total of 218, unless I missed some way back when before I started tagging these posts) if I didn't. I enjoy throwing the ball around with friends and using my height and reach (which gave me the nickname Rodan) to play decent defense. Before I started high school, I got a call from then-Aurora Christian head coach Oz Price about joining the football team. I remember telling him that I would think about it. I told my mom, who was in the room at the time, about the call. She told me there was no way I was playing football. I don't blame her; I was 5'11" or so and about 120 pounds soaking wet at the time. I probably would have gotten hurt, and this was before the concussion issues really started to come to light. I look back and kind of wonder, "What if?" sometimes, but I don't think missing out on playing football hurt me any.

That said, I do wonder about the future of the NFL and football in general. For right now, it seems like it's too big to fail. The NFL brings in billions of dollars of revenue a year. There are millions of kids who play high school football every fall in the hopes of playing in college, then thousands who play in college in hopes of making it to the elite level of the NFL. The success rate of those high schools kids isn't very high, but their chances of getting hurt remain. Positive steps have been taken with regards to injuries, but even so, there will be parents who will be like mine and refuse to let their sons participate in football because there are and always will be risks. It's possible that down the line, I will be one of those parents as well.

For all we know, the NFL will continue on as it has been and continue to grow in popularity, and the lower levels will also get along just fine. Even if they do, the NFL needs to take a better approach than by just saying, "Oh, the game is safer than it's ever been!" Many of their decisions prioritize "protecting the shield" over protecting its players and alumni. Being willing to come further forward than they have and taking increased steps for player safety (say, working with helmet developers or more closely with neurologists while also being open minded about head injuries) will go a long way towards maintaining the integrity of the shield.

NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region

Two regions down, two to go.

Adam and I are halfway through our early set of predictions for the NCAA Tournament. If you're just joining us, we're going region by region to make some picks about what we think will happen.

If you want to join us for some overall bracket filling, you can join my Yahoo! group and see if you can beat us.

Today, we are on to the South region.

NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

Happy Tuesday! We get the First Four starting tonight to whittle the field down a little bit, but in the grand scheme of things, that doesn't impact our selections here.

Yesterday, Adam and I began our region by region look at the 2015 bracket. I'll have a link to that posted below.

With a couple days left, you still have time to join in on the official Confessions of a Sportscaster bracket pool. It's free to join, and while there's no money to be made, you can earn bragging rights, which are pretty cool in and of themselves.

Today, we're going across the bracket to the East Region. Let's get to it.

NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

We're here! Hoops! Brackets! Upsets! BASKETBALL!

Selection Sunday saw the unveiling of the field that will be whittled down over the next three weeks until we arrive at a single champion. In years past, I've done a single general post about the upcoming tournament. This year, I'm expanding it and bringing in some outside perspective again.

Adam Quinn, who you may be familiar with from his appearances in Pigskin Pick 'Em last season, wanted in on some March Madness action. I'm happy to welcome him back for the next few days as we pick apart each region.

Because odds are that we're going to differ on opinion on each region, we aren't going to go pick by pick (also, it would probably end up being a longer blog post). Instead, we'll pick out a few key facts. We're each going to pick who we think will make it out of each region, a likely first round upset, a sleeper team, and a bust.

Meanwhile, if you want to go bracket to bracket with us, you can join my tournament pool on Yahoo! at the link provided. For now, here's a look at the Midwest Region.

Mr. Mitzel's Extra Credit Opportunity- Week 1

In the three and a half years I've been writing on Confessions of a Sportscaster, I've done a lot of different projects. I've picked three seasons' worth of NFL games against the spread. I've blasted the corruption of big time college football in favor of a more equitable playoff. I've chronicled the rise of The System that is slowly destroying my vocal chords (but I love every minute of it). I've even proved that the 1996 Chicago Bulls are the greatest NBA team of all time. But today... I'm giving a homework assignment. Kind of.

If you are one of Mrs. Mitzel's students in either Common Core 7, Math A, or Foundations, welcome to your extra credit opportunity. One of the great things about math is that it's everywhere; you just have to know where to look. And with the greatest four day stretch in sports coming up this weekend, we're going to find some.

There are plenty of ways math applies to March Madness. Mrs. Mitzel and I came up with a few questions for you about the NCAA Tournament. Answer the following questions below in an email back to Mrs. Mitzel, and she will give you some extra credit points.

1. You guys have learned about percents and the percent proportion, so we'll apply it to last year's NCAA Tournament bracket. Of all the "Second Round/Round of 64" games last year, what percentage of those games were "upsets"? (For those of you who aren't familiar with the NCAA Tournament or sports in general: the bracket is split up into four groups of 16 teams who receive a "seed", a number from 1 to 16. The 1 seed is the best team, the 2 seed is second best, and so on. An "upset" is where the team with a higher number seed wins over the team with the lower number seed. For example, the 12 seed beating the 5 seed would be an upset.)
2. We're going to try a probability question. Starting on Thursday, the field of 64 will start playing, and by Sunday, only 16 teams (known as the "Sweet 16") will still be in the Tournament. If you pick one team out of the 64, what is the probability that they will make the Sweet 16? Express this answer as a percent (rounded to the nearest whole number), a decimal (rounded to the nearest hundredth), and a fraction.

Mrs. Mitzel will give you 1 extra credit point for each correct answer. In addition to this, pick one team out of the field of 64 that you think will advance to the Sweet 16. If that team is still alive on Monday morning, she will give you an additional extra credit point. All of this is due before the start of school Thursday morning.

Then, for kicks and giggles, if you want to fill out a bracket and see how well you can do, you can join my free pool over at Yahoo! Make sure that this is okay with your parents first before you join. Good luck!

2015 NCC Women's Basketball Recap

I really wish I didn't have to write this piece this soon. I wasn't ready for the ride to end. Unfortunately, "All good things...", et cetera, et cetera.

Just four days after the journey was given an extension, the Cardinals saw their season come to an end at the hands of Wisconsin-Oshkosh. I'll give this game a quick focus before moving on to the season as a whole: it's hard to win when you get outrebounded 59-32. To me, that, combined with having two of your best players fouling out with like five minutes to go, makes it all but impossible. They were right in it until the very end though, and for that, you have to give this team credit. There's nothing for anyone to hang their heads about. This was a great season.

2015 NCC Men's Basketball Recap

While the women's basketball team got to celebrate a berth in the NCAA Tournament on Monday, the men's team watched and were probably disappointed as they did not make the field of 62.

I had mentioned last week that given their regional ranking and position in the CCIW, the Cardinals were on the bubble and probably needed the auto bid to get in, or at least upset Augie in the semis and hope for the best. Unfortunately, they couldn't do that. That in no way takes anything away from what this team was able to accomplish this year.

This is a team that finished with a record of 18-8, which is nothing to sneeze at, especially given how tough the CCIW is. This is a conference that got two at large bids out of a possible 19. This team deserves credit for that. They had a monster non-conference portion of the season that slowed down once they got into the thick of CCIW play, but when this team needed to buckle down and win games, they did so.

There were some great performances this season that deserve a ton of credit. For the most part, this team lived and died by its inside presence. Senior forwards Jack Burchett and Charles Rosenberg, who were both a part of this team for that magical 2013 Final Four run, used that experience to help propel the Cardinals.

Burchett did it with his defense and rebounding (a team-leading 7.9 boards per game), but he also showed he could do it on the offensive end, averaging 11.2 points per game on 57.6 percent shooting, getting to the basket at will while also running the point from time to time. He also finished with what I believe was a career-best 58.8 percent mark at the free throw line. While in a vacuum, this is an awful number, he improved drastically over the course of his career and took advantage of his opportunities, especially once conference play kicked into high gear. Jack was selection to the All-CCIW First Team after winning two CCIW Player of the Week awards.

Meanwhile, Rosenberg was the leading scorer of the team, averaging 16.5 points per game on 53.9 percent shooting. While he sometimes took some head-scratching jumpers (including 24 threes, of which he only hit four), he was a force inside on both ends of the floor. Rosenberg also won a pair of CCIW Player of the Week nods while getting named to the All-CCIW Second Team. He also won the Chicago Marriott Naperville Tipoff Tournament MVP back in November after scoring 48 points and pulling down 11 rebounds in wins over Trinity International and Bluffton.

Both of these guys will be gone next year, and their presence will be missed. Burchett finished his North Central career third all time in games played and field goal percentage, seventh in rebounds, tied for sixth in blocks, and (maybe not the most ceremonious honor) ninth in free throw attempts. Meanwhile, Rosenberg leaves the Cardinals tied for sixth in blocked shots with Burchett, but only after blocking 37 this season, the second most in a single season in Cardinal history. That kind of inside presence is hard to replace, especially since their main backup, Mike Reinke, is also a senior and will not be back next year.

North Central will obviously need to retool its frontcourt, but the backcourt will be in good shape for next year. The most notable return for next year is junior transfer Jayme Moten, who was second on the team in scoring at 15.7 points per game on 49.4 percent shooting, including a scorching 45.3 percent clip from beyond the arc, probably a top-20 mark in the nation (which I can't be sure of, because the NCAA's stats don't include any games after February 22nd). his 82 makes from deep broke a three-way tie for the record in a single season, which was done twice by a sharpshooter from my WONC days in Reid Barringer. Barringer's all-time mark is probably safe since Moten has only one year left, but that man Heat Checked the Cardinals back into several games this season. Had he not missed three and a half games, he would have had more. Too bad.

Joining Moten as a leading senior will be guard/forward Kevin Honn, who showed a great two-way game, averaging 7.9 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting, including 35.5 percent from three point range. I had him pegged as a guy who would be a key figure for the team, and to a degree, he was. He had some monster games, including the regular season finale against North Park to send the Cardinals to the CCIW Tournament.

After Honn, there's a bunch of youth that, with the benefit of a year of going through The Gauntlet, will be back and better next year. Erwin Henry averaged 7.5 points per game as a freshman, and was key in the win at home against Wheaton. Brandon White wasn't a major scorer, but stepped up when he needed to and provided some good defense. Joe Kennell had almost twice as many assists (58) as turnovers (30) as a freshman, and while his inexperience showed a bit at times, he'll be back and better next year. That's a pretty solid backcourt.

All in all, this team has nothing to hang its head about. They played well for the entire season, and were in the discussion for an at large bid even at the end of the year. (Quick aside, since I mentioned I would throw a hissy fit if Wisconsin-Stevens Point got an at-large bid over North Central: while they did maintain a weaker record against regionally ranked opponents than North Central and lost to the Cardinals in Stevens Point back in December, the Pointers were ranked higher regionally and ended up with a slightly higher strength of schedule; I can't really argue it as vehemently as I threatened.) While you can't discount the rest of the CCIW (Augie is Augie, Wesleyan is always good, Elmhurst had a good year and is young, North Park is young and will be right back in the mix next season, to go through the Top 5 from this year), the Cardinals are still in decent shape for 2016 and beyond. These young guys can take the lessons they learned this year and apply them to next season, and come back ready to tackle the Gauntlet.

And Now, We Dance

On a Wednesday in November, I paid a visit to Merner Fieldhouse to go say hello to a women's basketball team preparing for a new campaign with something to prove. Hearing from many people around that team, there was a lot of talk about something special brewing.

Three and a half months, 22 wins, six weeks of Top 25 appearances, three weeks of high regional ranking, 143 loud yells of "THREEEEEEEEE!" and about 872 rants about how good this team is later, this happened.

We aren't done yet!! #NCC #tourneytime 💪🏀 pic.twitter.com/uRqRht1TCB
— Jamie Cuny (@jamiecuny) March 2, 2015

It's been 31 years since the last time North Central made the NCAA Tournament. Just to reference how long it's been, my parents were still in college back in North Dakota the last time this program made it to The Dance. Of course, that team went to the Final Four, a nice follow up to winning it all back in 1983, their only two prior visits. This year's team has a chance to join that pantheon of great Cardinals women's basketball teams.

Of course, it won't be easy; it never is. 63 teams all have the same dream this Cardinal team does. In a few weeks in Grand Rapids, Michigan, one of them will take home the crown. But that's a few weeks away. Right now, the focus turns to the road ahead.

The System and the Whims of the NCAA

The historic ride for the women's basketball team at North Central continued this weekend at Wheaton... but is there more to come?

I followed along with the action as much as I could this weekend, doing a bunch of stat watching of the Elmhurst win and then again in the third loss of the year to Wheaton. From what I saw though, the Cardinals gave the Thunder hell. Wheaton truly had to earn their automatic bid. They're also unbeaten at home, which has to count for something.

So with the Thunder getting the CCIW's automatic bid, the question now becomes: will North Central get one of the 20 at-large bids?