I'd have to go back and look, but I think collectively this was the best week we've ever had as a group; going 4-0 in consensus games probably for the first time ever helps with that. But the tiers are starting to look a little closer together even though Adam and I still have a decent lead on the rest of the group. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Remember that Aiden forgot to get some picks in on ESPN, but we credited him with five extra wins from that week since he didn't know what had happened.
There is no longer a tie atop the group though, as Adam took three of the five disputed games last week and Geoffy took two of three to win the week; this gives Adam a one game lead again and Geoffy has a one game lead on Jim for third place, but he's five back of me for second.
This week, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 14. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (+9.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I'm hesitant to lay double digits on a Thursday night, but after the Niners just took Carolina behind the woodshed over the weekend, I don't see why that can't continue even on a short week; Arizona's not that good yet.
Adam: 49ers. San Francisco is looking good and just dropped a jumbo 51 on a decent Panthers team. I don’t see the Cards putting up much of a fight here and the 49ers roll.
Sunday Morning
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Lucas: Texans. At least here, the fine people in London can be treated to Deshaun Watson doing Deshaun Watson things. Watson with one eye is probably better than 80 percent of other NFL quarterbacks with two.
Lucas note: Honestly though... Foles might be an upgrade. Let go of the hate boner.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Washington is bad, but I'm not sure I feel comfortable laying double digits with an iffy offense in Buffalo.
Adam: Redskins. The Bills just got worked by the Eagles. Washington isn't anything to be afraid of, but I think they are a better team than a two score dog; I would have put this line closer to seven, give or take half a point.
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Low-hanging fruit? Low-hanging fruit.
Lucas note: I was one of the poor saps subjected to this line. I laughed at first, but then I looked at the schedule... and it didn't seem like it was that unrealistic. Regression to the mean is a female dog.
Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Lucas: Titans. Last time the Panthers got 50 dropped on them, it broke them for the rest of the season. I also can't figure out the Titans, so I'll take the points and we'll see if the Panthers are broken again.
Adam: Titans. Just a gut pick. Nothing really to say here other than both teams are playing with just ehhh quarterbacks. In reality, I would expect the Panthers to roll, so when I say this is a gut pick, maybe its more of a "I expect to have this be a hero so why no go for it" pick. Lucas note: Sorry to steal your hero pick.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)
Lucas: Colts. Adam Vinatieri might be fixed, and degree of difficulty for Pittsburgh just stepped way up. Have fun wrangling Jacoby Brissett, guys.
Adam: Colts. Ewww! How is this game only a 1.5 point line? The Colts are much the better team here and should have no problem with the Steelers even on the road.
Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. With Mahomes' status still in doubt, combined with a defense that just got lit up by Aaron Rodgers now having to deal with a hot Kirk Cousins, I'll take the upset, thanks.
Adam: Vikings. I originally had the Chiefs here but took it down once I saw that Froggy still looks like he will be sidelined. As such I think this will be one of the closer games this weekend.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (+5.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Yeah, the Dolphins are actively tanking and not doing much to hide it, but I feel like they're being run infinitely better than the Jets, who might be on the hook for millions (NOTE: Tweet below contains NSFW language).
Adam: Dolphins. The Fins looked like they had it for a hot second last week up 14–0 at one point. Oh well, the visions of a W faded quickly as the first half closed and the second half went on. Also, how awesome does Fitzmagic look with his beard and helmet? Fins for the W here.FINAL CHAPTER OF KELECHI OSEMELE, ABRIDGED:— Captain Schlasser: Leader of Men (@UrinatingTree) October 26, 2019
Kelechi - "I just got surgery, and they discovered the damage was severe"
Lawyers - "We're going to file a grievance to the NFLPA for your negligence"
*LONG AWKWARD SILENCE*
NY Jets - "Fuck you, you're cut"
THE END https://t.co/bm8ACH91KA
Lucas note: It's pretty majestic.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Lucas: Lions. Tough call, especially with the Lions selling a little bit at the trade deadline, but I don't totally trust the Raiders. I'll take the couple points.
Adam: Lions. Tough call, tough call... with Kerryon Johnson out for the Lions, they had to rely on Stafford and the passing game and it went off in spades. The Lions are a surprise team this year and I think they keep on with a win versus the Raiders.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Don't bet against Russell Wilson at home, especially going up against The Bakery.
Adam: Seahawks. The Bucs are on a three game losing streak and you really never know what Tampa team you will get on any given Sunday. I like the line, and it will be close, but just barely I will take the Seahawks by seven.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Lucas: Browns. Yeah, Freddy Kitchens is an idiot, but the Broncos aren't very good, and that maybe enough to kickstart the Browns to... something a little more respectable?
Adam: Browns. Getting my gambling juices going: I saw a guy on a blog give 4 locks, 3 of them I agree with; this one not quite as much. But then again, don’t really know why I should hate it, so yeah I'm just going with it.
Lucas note: It's not quite Opposite Week, but it'll work?
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm down for getting an extra home game where I only have to lay just over a field goal with God Tier Aaron Rodgers, who is arguably the second-best Aaron on the Packers roster.
Adam: Packers. How is this a line? I know you generally give the home team about 3 points. But that means on a neutral field you are saying this only a 6.5 point game... yeah, I don’t see that. A-A-Ron is coming on good and the whole Green Bay offense is humming. Pack by 17.
Lucas note: I know there are some adjustments to that three point rule. In Green Bay sometimes it might trend towards four, Seattle probably similar... do the Chargers have a negative home field advantage? We can't rule it out, but even if they don't, I agree; this line seems too low.
Sunday Night
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (+3.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I almost took the Ravens here, and I'm still really tempted to, but I saw a graphic on Sunday about New England's dominance this year of quarterbacks drafted in 2018. Sorry, Lamar.
Adam: Ravens. Here is another gut pick. Everything in my body says to pick the Pats, but I just don’t want them to. And here at least we have a team that could, if they play the right game, beat the Pats. So here's to hoping and dreaming.
Monday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+7.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I don't totally trust the Giants with Dallas coming off a bye presumably a little healthier. Just what we need, more arrogant Cowboy fans running around...
Adam: Giants. Now the Cowgirls get to see a Manning-less team. With Barkley back and the Dallas D not playing up to their expectations, in New York I see a rather entertaining Monday night. I know I have given the Cowgirls a lot of crap this season, but this is a pivotal game for them. Win, I think they take the East; lose and you're missing the playoffs. Good Luck G-Men, but I see a backdoor cover and a Hail Mary chance for an upset.
Records So Far
Lucas: 66-55 (9-6 last week)
Adam: 67-54 (10-5 last week)
Joe: 55-66 (8-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 61-60 (10-5 last week)
Aiden: 53-68 (9-6 last week)
Jim: 60-61 (10-5 last week)
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