Super Bowl XLIX Predictions and Prop Bets

We're almost here! The day that should be a national holiday is upon us, and with it, the biggest game of the year.

Slowly but surely, I've gotten over the Epic Collapse of 2015 that resulted in this matchup in Arizona. It's a matchup a lot of people predicted coming into the year, and was made all the easier by the fact that these two teams were the top seeds in their respective conferences.

So who will win on Sunday: Seattle or New England? And what about the more fun part of Super Bowl Sunday: the prop bets?

Given the significance of the day, I've recruited some help. After giving me a run for my money in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em this season, Adam is back to do prop bets with me. We will have our picks for a variety of bets following our Super Bowl predictions. All bets are taken from a list provided by Bovada. Let's get to it!

Game Notes: (MBK) Millikin University @ North Central College (1/28/15)

Final Score
Millikin 69, NCC 66

Game Summary
The Big Blue (8-11, 3-5) overcame an early 3-0 deficit to take early control of the game. The Cardinals (14-5, 4-4), after falling out of the D3hoops.com Top 25 this week, struggled to respond out of the gate but managed to keep it close, tying the game at 22 before Millikin went on another run, outscoring the Cardinals 15-6 to close out the half up 37-28. The Big Blue opened up their lead to as many as 14 coming out of the break, but the Cardinals rallied back, including a thunderous fast break dunk by Jack Burchett, to close the gap. A Rosenberg layup tied the game at 62, and a Burchett jumper tied it again at 64, but the Cardinals went four straight possessions failing to take advantage of a chance to grab the lead, and the Big Blue escaped Naperville with an upset win after a pair of three pointers in the final 20 seconds were off the mark.

Key Stats

• TJ Sims (MIL): 12-17 FG (1-2 3PT), 4-5 FT; 29 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 1 stl. Really, the best way to describe his game is, "Wow." Sims was hitting pretty much every shot he took last night. His jumper was fluid all game, and he hit some impossible shots. Pull up jumpers with a man in his face, a sideways-falling jumper... but most crucially, with time running down up one, he drove out of control to the basket, threw up a falling desperation layup... and bounced it home off the glass. It was that kind of night for him.
• Kevin Honn (NCC): 8-17 FG (1-4 3PT), 4-6 FT; 21 pts, 8 reb (3 off), 5 ast, 1 stl. Way back in November, I talked about how much of a key figure Honn would play for the Cardinals this year, but it really took until last night for him to show that off. He looked good on multiple drives to the basket, but struggled a bit on his jumpers (to think, had he hit one more three...). The rest of his numbers show how good of an overall game he had. Honn basically kept the Cardinals afloat in the first half.
• Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 5-9 FG (0-2 3PT), 9-12 FT; 19 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast, 5 blk. Rosenberg was one of the key figures in the second half rally, attacking the basket and getting to the line, where he was pretty effective. He had one of the Cardinals' two final tying looks on the last possession, but couldn't get it to go.

Around the CCIW

• @ Illinois Wesleyan 79 (14-5, 6-2), Wheaton 70 (9-10, 2-6) (OT)
• North Park 79 (11-8, 2-6), @ Carthage 75 (7-11, 3-5)
• Augustana 77 (17-2, 7-1), @ Elmhurst 73 (15-4, 5-3) (OT)

Final Thoughts

Photo from The Daily Herald

First, a non-game related note:I actually got to see my old mentor and legendary former Aurora Christian basketball coach Don Davidson at Merner last night. He was there to see Millikin head coach Matt Nadelhoffer, who is also an Aurora Christian graduate ('93), and for Davidson, it was a trip back to where he once played (he played college ball at Illinois Wesleyan, and Merner was in use back in his playing days). He said he loves the new digs. All in all, great to see him.

As for the game itself... this loss hurt. The Cardinals needed it to get back in the hunt for the CCIW Tournament. If the season ended today, they'd still make it, but now Millikin and Carthage are breathing right down their necks for the fourth and final spot, while Augie took care of business in overtime, and Wesleyan was able to escape with a home overtime win. Either way, losing four of five, including three straight home games and two in a row to the bottom teams in the conference are not a good omen.

The Cardinals stay home with a chance to right the ship on Saturday, where the early game will probably be bigger (though let's be honest, even the men's game will be huge) as Wheaton comes calling. I missed this matchup last year. I'm not missing it again. Be there, wear whatever color the Cardinal Crazies say you should wear, and be loud. Beat Wheaton.

Once More Unto the Breach

With the conclusion of last night's CCIW games, we've completed one run through the Gauntlet. Due to the double round robin format of regular season play, the eight teams that make up the Gauntlet must run it one more time, traveling to the schools they hosted and welcoming in the teams whose lairs they invaded earlier.

Today, I'm going to look back at my preseason predictions, and then I'm going to run through the standings of each conference and take a look at where NCC stands in each, plus take a look at the second half of conference play and how it bodes for the postseason.

Game Notes: (WBK) Carthage College @ North Central College (1/21/15)

Final Score
NCC 101, Carthage 72

Game Summary
After moving up the rankings to 22nd in the country, the Cardinals (16-1, 5-1) opened the game with a three to take the early lead. The Lady Reds (11-6, 4-2) stayed with it, taking a lead of 6-5 before the Cardinals went on an 14-0 run to open up a big advantage. Carthage called time out to try and stem the tide, but the Cardinals would not be cooled off from outside, leading by as many as 34 before taking a 61-31 lead into the break. They had a sluggish start to the second half, but Carthage couldn't really take advantage, narrowing the gap to as small as 24 a couple times before North Central snapped out of it. The Cardinals led by as many as 34 in the second half before settling for that 29 point final margin. North Central broke the century mark with 21 seconds left, the tenth time this season that they've hit that threshold.

Key Stats

• Anita Sterling (NCC): 6-7 FG (5-5 3PT); 17 pts, 4 reb. This was probably Anita's best game as a Cardinal. Her previous career high for scoring was 16 points last season against Milwaukee School of Engineering. Anita has improved her outside shooting, but to go 5-5 is something pretty special. She only played ten minutes last night, leaving at one point in the second half after taking a charge and didn't return.
• Corrine Rowe (NCC): 4-9 FG (2-5 3PT), 2-5 FT; 12 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 1 stl. This is Corrine's first appearance among the "Key Stats: since coming to NCC, and part of me is surprised I haven't included her before. She's been a very good addition to the team as a good ball handler, distributor, and three point shooter. She only hit a couple threes last night, but she takes good shots, and her six dimes were second only to Bobbi Johns' eight.
• Alexis Hahn (CAR): 13-26 FG, 7-9 FT; 33 pts, 15 reb (4 off), 1 blk, 1 stl. Opposing forwards always have their best games against the Cardinals. Carthage played conservative against the press, preferring to get into a half court offense, but found Hahn early and often. She hit a bunch of layups, but was also able to hit a few mid range jumpers as well.

North Central System Watch

• Carthage Turnovers: 26. The officials spent most of the first half (and a good chunk of the second half as well) calling traveling by the book. Most of Carthage's turnovers came from these, though they did also commit a five second violation in the second half. 17 of the 26 came before the break, and the Cardinals managed nine steals on the game, led by Tess Godhardt's four.
• NCC 3PT: 22-52 (42.3%). This team has a tendency once in a while to get red hot from deep. That was the first half in a nutshell, when they hit 16 of their 31 attempts from beyond the arc (that's 51.6 percent, by the way). They regressed back to the mean in the second half, which is to be expected, but even so. Their red hot shooting pretty much knocked Carthage out of the game before it even started.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Anita Sterling drew the charge in the second half, and seemed like she took a good shot on it, as she left for the rest of the game. Coach Roof seemed encouraged that she would be all right, and she seemed to be okay after the game from what I could tell.

Around the CCIW

• @Illinois Wesleyan 84 (8-9, 2-4), Augustana 71 (7-10, 1-5)
• North Park 64 (10-7, 2-4), @Elmhurst 54 (9-8, 2-4)
• @Wheaton 78 (15-2, 5-1), Millikin 66 (12-5, 3-3)

Final Thoughts

Photo from NCC Sports Information Department

This was one of the games I circled on my calendar back in July, when the schedule first came out. Carthage has struggled in Naperville the last two years and came within a missed pushoff of getting beat last year. Needless to say, blowing these guys out was enjoyable, especially since I didn't expect this kind of offensive showing.

Quick officiating note: I wasn't nearly as mad as I've been in recent games, but out of a sense of fairness, I'll note it here. They didn't call many fouls in the game, with each team logging seven in the first half. There was a little more disparity in the second half favoring NCC, which Carthage coach Tim Bernero wasn't thrilled with, and I don't blame him, given the score.

The Cardinals close out their first round through the CCIW with a trip to North Park on Saturday at 5pm. Sunday, I'll take a look at the CCIW as a whole going into the second go-around.

Death to the BCS Quadrennial Tournament

With last week's championship game, I completed the fourth edition of the Death to the BCS Playoffs since I started Confessions of a Sportscaster. And since I'm bored and curious about different matchups as well as trying to get over maybe the worst loss I've ever endured, I'm starting another mini-tournament.

In reality, Ohio State won the first real championship at the highest level of college football last week. Before them, we had three paper champions: Florida State in 2013 and a pair of Alabama teams in 2011 and 2012. In Death to the BCS action, Alabama won championships in 2012 and 2014, while Oklahoma State took the 2011 title and Stanford won in 2013. There's overlap with one team, but overall, it begged a question to me: which team in the past four years is the best?

To decide this, I'm going back into the simulator, but I'm switching the format around. With eight teams (technically seven, but 2012 Alabama is playing twice), I'm going to do this as a Round Robin type tournament similar to how the Glenbard West Holiday Classic I worked in 2011 went. The paper champions and 2014 Ohio State will play a round robin amongst themselves, while the four Death to the BCS Champions play their own round robin. The winner of each pool will battle it out for the first Death to the BCS Quadrennial Championship.

First, quick set of rules. For the round robin portion, I'm only going to simulate each matchup once, just to make things quick and easy. The championship game, however, will be a best-of-three simulation, with the "clinching" game being the official result. If 2012 Alabama advances in both pools, the championship game will not be played. All games will be "played" at a neutral indoor site to minimize the impact of home field and weather (and make things easier so I don't have to find dates to look up weather for). The team with the best record in each pool of four teams will advance to the title game. In the event of a two-team tie, the head-to-head winner will advance. In the event of a three-team tie (three teams go 2-1 in a pool with a rock-paper-scissors effect), the team with the best point differential in games involving the tied teams will advance. All simulations are once again provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play.

It Wasn't Supposed to End Like This

First and foremost, I'm just going to let this tweet by one of my editors for UKEndzone speak for itself.

Wow, Packers/Seahawks expected win % pic.twitter.com/mpR6QaM8y3
— Ollie Connolly (@OllieUKEZ) January 18, 2015

Photo by Evan Siegle (P-G Media)

I've been a sports fan my whole life. I've been through some tough losses that bridge the emotional spectrum. To me, the 2003 NLCS remains the worst, partially because it's the one loss I wasn't directly involved in that made me cry. The 2012 game in Seattle (which I'll spare you a link to; it doesn't matter anymore) made me the angriest I've ever been after a loss (other than maybe the '99 playoff game against the 49ers where Jerry Rice fumbled and it wasn't called). The 2014 Blackhawks' run (and my dream of walking into my wedding reception with Kristen lifting an inflatable Stanley Cup) came to an abrupt end in overtime of Game 7 at home, leaving me feeling like I'd been punched in the stomach. The 2008 Cubs spent six months making me believe it was finally the year before flaming out to the Dodgers, and prompted me staying up until 3:30 in the morning watching Family Guy so I could feel anything again.

That last one is probably the closest to how I felt around 5:30 Sunday evening. And even then... it's not the same. It's worse.

This wasn't how it was supposed to be.

Of course, coming into the day I didn't expect the game to be quite like that. I was on record saying Seattle would take advantage of a hobbled Rodgers and head to the Super Bowl. It was a great start and a pleasant surprise that the team I thought was best in the NFL was playing so poorly, even though Green Bay didn't take full advantage of it, only leading 16-0 at halftime before losing... like that. I haven't brought myself to watch any replays of the game since. It's too much.

Photo by Joe Nicholson (USA TODAY Sports)

This is the kind of loss that makes you look back at certain points of the game and wonder "What If". I've found myself replaying so many in my head. To a small degree, settling for two field goals that are effectively extra points off of Seattle turning it over. Most of the guessing comes from the end of the game though.

The fake field goal haunts me. I don't know how Green Bay didn't expect a fake in a situation up 16-0 in the third quarter. Being more prepared changes the tide of that game.

The 3rd and 19 conversion... man. You have eight back to cover five... and let a guy get open for 29 yards. While I think Seattle should have gotten that personal foul penalty tacked on after the sack because it was clearly an after-the-fact penalty, that doesn't excuse failing in that defensive situation.

I keep thinking back to Morgan Burnett's pick. I had no problem with him sliding at the time, but looking back, I wonder. He had at least ten extra yards, maybe more. Take them, see if you can add at least another field goal, and you win.

The onside kick... I can't totally fault Brandon Bostick for it. He should have had it if he was going for it, but what if he blocks? Do the Seahawks still get it? How can you let something like that happen? Even so, Bostick met with the media on Monday. He did the honorable thing, despite the death threats from Twitter idiots.

The two-point conversion... how can Ha Ha, who had had his best game as a pro up to that point, not go to knock the ball down or pick it off? Instead of going down to tie, Green Bay goes down the field to win, assuming Seattle's defense doesn't sit back and play soft.

And overall, I look at Mike McCarthy, who coached not to lose, instead of coaching to win. So many times he could have put the game away, instead of letting Seattle hang around... and hang around... and come back to win. A lot of people are calling for his head today. I don't know if I'd go that far; he's led Green Bay to the playoffs almost every year, made three trips to the NFC title game, and has a Super Bowl ring. But after this game, I would put him on the hot seat for next year. I hope he learns from this game. You can't coach not to lose. You have to coach to win.

Photo by Jeff Chiu (AP)

Kristen said to me after the loss that at least it was a good game, and that losing a close game is better than getting blown out. In a vacuum, that might be true, but when you factor in how dominant Green Bay had been for almost 55 minutes only to lose the way they did... it's worse. It sucks.

So instead of planning where to watch the big game in Glendale, the Packers have to have their final memory of the 2014 season be a game they let slip away. They have things to do in the offseason, but there's no reason they can't be back to this point next year. They just have to do what needs to be done when the time comes so that they can take the next step.

Game Notes: (MBK) Elmhurst College @ North Central College

Final Score
Elmhurst 66, NCC 57

Game Summary
It was another Heat Check game early for the Cardinals (13-3, 3-2) who jumped out to an early 12-5 lead. The Blue Jays (13-3, 3-2) battled back quickly to tie, and took command with free throws, carrying a 36-32 lead into the break. The Cardinals came back in the second to tie the game at 48 and took a couple one point leads, but the Blue Jays stayed with it. The closest the Cardinals would get was 60-57 late, but free throws sealed the deal for Elmhurst.

Key Stats

• North Central: Committed 28 fouls to Elmhurst's 16. Normally, issues with officiating get put in the final thoughts section. Last night... wasn't great. By and large, I can't dispute the Cardinals getting called for 28 fouls. Elmhurst only getting called for 16... something doesn't seem quite right. It was a fairly physical game, so there shouldn't be this kind of foul disparity, especially when it results in Elmhurst shooting 36 free throws to 18 for North Central. This wasn't the main reason for the loss, but it didn't help.
• Elmhurst: Out-rebounded NCC 48-33. This disparity was much worse at halftime; the Blue Jays had more offensive rebounds (12) than NCC had total rebounds (11), with Elmhurst totally 29 at the break. NCC out-rebounded them in the second half, but nowhere near enough to stem the tide.
• Jayme Moten (NCC): 8-15 FG (8-14 3PT), 1-2 FT; 25 pts, 4 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. Jayme had another monster game from outside, scoring the Cardinals' first 12 points on threes before cooling off as the game went on. In a game where the inside presence wasn't there again (Jack Burchett and Charles Rosenberg combined for 13 points), he needed to step up.

Around the CCIW

• @Illinois Wesleyan 76 (12-4, 4-1), North Park 66 (6-10, 1-4)
• @Carthage 80 (7-8, 3-2), Millikin 76 (6-10, 1-4)
• @Augustana 78 (15-1, 5-0), Wheaton 74 (8-8, 1-4)

Final Thoughts
The officiating was bad for the second straight game, but I can't fully blame the loss on them. The Cardinals couldn't get anything going inside, got out-rebounded, and that probably to some degree explains the 2-1 free throw disparity. This loss probably puts the Cardinals in a very bad position regarding the Top 25, considering it's their second straight loss. This creates a bit of a log jam for the final two spots in the conference tournament, but there's a lot of time left before that happens.

The Cardinals hit the road for two straight to close out the first run through the Gauntlet, and they need a win against Carthage next week.

Game Notes: (WBK) Elmhurst College @ North Central College (1/17/15)

Final Score
NCC 82, Elmhurst 79

Game Summary
The Cardinals (15-1, 4-1) jumped out to an early lead behind some three point shooting, but Elmhurst (9-7, 2-3) battled back to tie the game at ten. The Cardinals quickly regained the lead, but went into a dry spell offensively. Fortunately for them, the Blue Jays were also struggling. They kept it close thanks to free throws, but the Cardinals took a 41-38 lead into halftime. North Central got a three on the opening possession of the second half, then went on a field goal drought for several minutes as the Blue Jays took a 58-47 lead. The Cardinals woke up from there and unleashed a barrage of threes to close the gap, then went inside to take the lead, and free throws sealed the deal.

Key Stats

• Bobbi Johns (NCC): 4-8 FG (2-3 3PT), 12-16 FT; 22 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 2 stl. Bobbi pretty much put the game away last night, hitting a couple threes (something she usually doesn't do a ton of) and attacking the basket relentlessly, getting to the line a ton of times. While she did turn it over five times, she more than made up for it with late game heroics, including a pair of free throws with ten seconds left to clinch the game.
• Tess Godhardt (NCC): 6-10 FG (0-1 3PT), 5-5 FT; 17 pts, 7 reb (6 off), 2 stl. The former Blue Jay was held in check in the first half, only attempting one field goal while scoring just four points before taking over inside in the second half. She continues to be a key for the Cardinals' success.
• Fiona McMahon (ELM): 15-22 FG, 4-10 FT; 34 pts, 11 reb (3 off), 4 ast, 1 blk. McMahon very nearly beat the Cardinals by herself, frequently getting open behind the Cardinal press for multiple easy layups. Were it not for her 40 percent night at the line, she very well may have.

North Central System Watch

• Elmhurst Turnovers: 33. The Blue Jays turned it over 19 times in the first half alone, owing to several travels and errant passes. The Cardinals forced a pair of five-second calls, then a ten second call late in the game, overturning what was originally a foul on Bobbi Johns. The Cardinals also managed 15 steals.
• NCC 3PT: 11-39 (28.2%). This is a lower number in terms of attempts for the Cardinals, but they made them count. Corrine Rowe and Jamie Cuny each hit four to do a ton of damage.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Therese Pettersson drew one early in the game to help set the defensive tone. There weren't any other calls that came super close in the game.

Around the CCIW

• Wheaton 65 (14-2, 4-1), @Augustana 62 (7-9, 1-4)
• Millikin 75 (11-4, 3-2), @Carthage 61 (11-5, 4-1)
• Illinois Wesleyan 89 (7-9, 1-4), @North Park 72 (9-7, 1-4)

Final Thoughts
Coach Roof told me after the game last night that "we needed this one." I agree; they're maintaining a perfect home record so far while moving into a three-way tie for first place in the CCIW with the win and Carthage finally dropping a conference game. I told her too that this was the type of game that bodes well for the rest of the year. This team has overcome double digit deficits multiple times to come back and win the game, including in quite a few home games.

The Cardinals get a chance to stay in first place as they welcome Carthage to Merner on Wednesday. This one is somewhat personal for me, considering how the Cardinals got robbed last year.

NFL Championship Round Preview

It was a good weekend overall in the NFL playoffs. Despite some controversy with the officiating (some completely unfounded, some other also unfounded as any ire should be directed at the rules committee), it was a great weekend. We also saw tradition continue, as one home favorite lost outright. It wasn't one I figured would happen, which is bad for my record, but good for my fandom. I got three of the four winners right, but finished at .500 for the week against the spread.

Speaking of the spread, that information is being taken from Vegas Insider as close to posting time as possible. Let's preview the games.

Game Notes: (MBK) Augustana College @ North Central College (1/14/15)

Final Score
Augustana 75, NCC 64

Game Summary
The #9 Cardinals (13-2, 3-1) came out tough but got into early foul trouble. The top ranked Vikings (14-1, 4-0) played them close despite cold Cardinal shooting. Tied at 27, Augie made a run ignited by a Jawan Straughter dunk plus a foul and led by as many as ten before a late three made it 41-34 at the break. After scoring on their first possession to make it 41-36, the Vikings answered with a run and North Central completely lost their composure, with Charles Rosenberg picking up a technical after a jump ball, and Augie scored 14 unanswered to go up 55-36. Todd Raridon called for time, and the Cardinals fought back into the game, going on an 11-0 run of their own to make it interesting. The Cardinals would close the gap to five at 57-52, but Augie got an unconventional three point play and were able to clamp down and hang on for the win.

Key Stats

• Jack Burchett/Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 3-13 FG (0-1 3PT), 3-4 FT; 9 pts, 10 reb (2 off), 3 ast, 3 blk, 1 stl. The Cardinals largely need these guys to play well to have a chance at winning, and they didn't have it last night. Burchett went scoreless on five shots but led the team with six rebounds. Credit Augie's defense for clamping down and double teaming both guys when they tried to make a move in the post, but it was clearly an off night for both.
• Danielius Jurgutis (AUG): 6-8 FG (1-2 3PT), 5-5 FT; 18 pts, 2 reb (1 off). It was hard to pick one outstanding Viking. I was planning on going with Jawan Straughter, but he only had six points and five boards (but those six points were probably the biggest of the game). Jurgutis led the team in scoring, splitting his points evenly between halves and playing good defense.
• Jayme Moten (NCC): 8-15 FG (5-10 3PT), 1-2 FT; 22 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 4 ast. Jayme had a monster game, hitting that key triple before halftime to make it a single digit deficit, then all but singlehandedly answered the Augie run, catching fire from outside the arc and picking up a couple lay ups to boot. If the inside game ever struggles, we know he can take over if he has to.

Around the CCIW

• Carthage 70 (6-8, 2-2), @Elmhurst 68 (12-3, 2-2)
• @Wheaton 88 (8-7, 1-3), North Park 82 (9-6, 0-4)
• @Illinois Wesleyan 93 (11-4, 3-1), Millikin 60 (6-9, 1-3)

Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch
This is a special one-time (per season) feature with this game. If you've followed CCIW basketball for any decent stretch of time, you'll know that one of the most entertaining figures to watch is Augustana head coach Grey Giovanine. From what I understand, off the court he's the nicest guy ever, but on the court he is a maniac. The most fun thing to do is see when his suit jacket comes off. The official scorer and I figured it would be off by about two minutes into the game, but he seemed mellow at first. While he did yell more as the game went on, the jacket remained on to the point that I even texted Geoffrey Clark to tell him the shocking development. Eventually, we lucked out: the jacket came off with 4:52 left in the first half following one of the Cardinals drawing a charge.

Final Thoughts
I seem to harp on this sort of thing way more than I should with these games... but the officiating last night was absolutely horrendous. Probably more horrendous than it usually is when I complain. I probably could have made an entire blog post just on that. Multiple over the back fouls missed, a couple traveling calls missed during that Augie run in the second half, Cardinals getting called for fouls when Augie players are arm-barring them, an obvious backcourt violation call that was inexplicably overturned... you get the idea. It was awful. All of that said... that isn't why the Cardinals lost. They lost because their frontcourt couldn't score and got into foul trouble. They lost because they lost their composure during the Augie run. They lost because they got into early foul trouble and the Vikings made them pay at the free throw line. It's a tough loss, but that's why Augie is number one in the country.

It's a home double header on Saturday. The NCC women bounced back from their loss at Wheaton last weekend with a 95-82 win at Augustana last night, and face off against an Elmhurst team that is pretty good in both men's and women's basketball. The Cardinals will look to improve to 4-1 in conference and try to maintain their ranking in front of a raucous home crowd.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Championship

In an ideal world, I would be letting the game in Arlington, Texas Monday night play out on its own to decide this playoff system's champion. However, since home field advantage means a ton apparently, I have to simulate one more matchup. If you wish, consider this sim a third place game.

Last week the top two seeds of the Death to the BCS Playoffs escaped with narrow wins to make it to Arlington. While Ohio State won the real trophy in Arlington last night, Alabama and Florida State will take the virtual field to take up a virtual championship banner.

Since these teams have been dropped from Don Best's handicapping site, I'm using the standard starting lineups given to me. Since AT&T Stadium has a roof, weather is not being taken into account (so basically, 70 degrees, no wind, no precipitation). Since this is the title game, I will simulate this as a best-of-five as opposed to a best-of-three that I've done through the first three rounds. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's crown a "champion".

NFL Divisional Round Preview

The quest to improve my picking resume for the 2014 season has failed. It's now impossible for me to finish above .500 for the year including the playoffs after an off week last week.

While I correctly picked three out of the four winners, in terms of spreads, one team covered that I expected not to, and another had to scrap out a late touchdown to win, forget about covering. This week, the "top four" teams in the NFL all get to host games.

Included with each game once again will be a line provided by Vegas Insider, taken as close to posting time as possible. If nothing else, maybe I can salvage a few games and make myself look like I kind of knew what I was talking about in 2014.

Game Notes: (WBK) Millikin University @ North Central College (1/7/15)

Final Score
NCC 95, Millikin 75

Game Summary
After finally getting the national recognition they deserve, the #24 Cardinals (13-0, 2-0) were able to battle the Big Blue (10-3, 1-1) pretty evenly early with threes falling at a reasonable clip. The two teams tied seven times and swapped the lead seven more, though the Cardinals seemed in control late in the half, leading by as many as nine before taking a 45-40 lead into the locker room. The Cardinals came out firing in the second half, but the Big Blue kept pace, getting as close as three at 59-56 before the Cardinals started to pull away. Despite having time to go for the century mark, Coach Roof called off the dogs with about 90 seconds to go.

Key Stats

• Jamie Cuny (NCC): 6-11 FG (4-7 3PT); 16 pts, 12 reb (3 off), 6 blk. One of the more underrated parts of Jamie's game is her outside shot. She's struggled a little bit from beyond the arc, but her performance last night puts her at 31.9 percent from beyond the arc. She led all rebounders, and with four first half blocks, broke Lindsay Feris' record of 52 blocks in a single season... and we're only 13 games in.
• Tess Godhardt (NCC): 8-14 FG (0-1 3PT), 6-8 FT; 22 pts, 11 reb (8 off), 6 stl. This was Tess' game to command, as she was able to find space in the lane for some good looks at layups. A couple of her offensive rebounds came on one sequence where she came up short on layups but got her own rebound. She's been a godsend all season, helping keep the Cardinals putting points on the board when the threes aren't falling.
• Alyssa Saklak (MIL): 12-24 FG, 4-5 FT; 28 pts, 11 reb (7 off). The defending CCIW Player of the Week followed up a strong performance last week with a monster game despite only playing 19 minutes due to foul trouble. She was able to make adjustments to her offensive game around the contesting arms of Jamie Cuny and other Cardinal post players to log a season high in points.

North Central System Watch

• Millikin Turnovers: 24. Millikin has struggled historically against the system, and 24 turnovers hurts a lot. They had one five second call on an inbounds pass, a handful of travels, and threw a few passes away, but 14 of the turnovers came on Cardinal steals. Tess Godhardt led the way with six, while Miranda Grizaffi, Mayson Whipple, and Corrine Rowe each had two.
• NCC 3PT: 15-61 (24.6%). Overall... not the best outing. The Cardinals shot 6-29 from deep in the first half before catching some fire for stretches in the second half. The percentage isn't great, but making 15 when you shoot 61 isn't too terrible. Most of the threes were open, but not always taken with set feet. That will probably help boost the percentages a little bit.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 2. Therese Pettersson and Bobbi Johns each picked up a charge in the second half, and I wasn't sure because the officials made delayed calls of offensive fouls. This helped to offset the multitude of offensive fouls the Cardinals had called on them in the first half.

Around the CCIW

• @Elmhurst 63 (8-5, 1-1), Augustana 49 (6-7, 0-2)
• @ Carthage 58 (9-4, 2-0), North Park 53 (8-5, 0-2)
• Wheaton 72 (12-1, 2-0), @ Illinois Wesleyan 46 (6-7, 0-2)

Final Thoughts

And all it took was a 12-0 start, a WSJ article, a @d3hoopsville appearance, and the ramblings of a homer PA guy: http://t.co/wqsGIyKSZX #24
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) January 6, 2015

I tweeted this out on Tuesday morning after learning that the Cardinals finally broke into the Top 25, something that was a long time coming, and this game was a good first test for a ranked team. The Big Blue just seemed to run out of gas as the game went on, a pretty common occurrence in this system.

The Cardinals are on the road for the next week, with the true test coming up on Saturday: #13 Wheaton. They're the consensus team to beat in the CCIW and are one of only two teams (Carthage being the other) that hasn't lost to the system, and the Thunder have never had the close calls Carthage has had. Saturday will be a good barometer of how good this Cardinal team really is.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Semifinals

The Death to the BCS Playoffs march on, even though the matchup for the national championship in the College Football Playoff has already been decided. Even so, I promised simulations for this, so I have to oblige.

We did have some interesting developments in the past week though. In the opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, Ole Miss ended up beating TCU in Texas, but in reality, TCU ended up winning on a neutral field. Out of curiosity, I ran a sim of what would have happened had TCU won in the first round, and ultimately... it didn't impact anything. Thus, the final four remains intact.

So as a refresher, the two semifinal matchups will be simulated best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official result. Don Best's handicapping site is being used to make sure injured players don't impact the outcome, and because I actually forgot to check the weather conditions at or near kickoff time on Saturday, weather data for this week is being taken from Weather Underground. All simulations this week are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's see if we get a replicated championship.

Game Notes (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (1/3/15)

Final Score
NCC 78, IWU 72

Game Summary
A tight and fairly chippy game followed the women's comeback heroics as the Cardinals (11-1, 1-0) locked into a tight battle and saw leading scorer Charles Rosenberg get in some early foul trouble. The Titans (8-4, 0-1) had similar trouble with one of their leaders and the teams had to find other players to step up. Both sides managed to keep it a tight ball game, with the Cardinals taking the biggest lead at four points late in the half, while Wesleyan stayed within a basket otherwise, going into halftime with a 36-35 Cardinal lead. The Titans pushed to take a couple small leads early in the second half, but their last was a 46-43 edge about five minute in. The Cardinals went on a mini rally to retake the lead and maintained it within a couple baskets for a few minutes before opening up a ten point lead. Wesleyan pulled to within two at 72-70 with a minute to play, but timely free throw shooting put the game away for the Cardinals.

Key Stats

• Jack Burchett (NCC): 9-16 FG, 7-8 FT; 25 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 4 ast. With Rosenberg in foul trouble much of the game (he only played 15 minutes), Burchett took over the major scoring duties in the paint. A 9-16 line isn't bad, but what really impressed me was his free throw shooting. He shot about 29 percent from the line as a freshman, then after a year off improved to 41 percent, then 47 percent last year. His 87 percent night last night bumps him up to 50 percent for the season.
• Brandon White (NCC): 1-3 FG, 2-2 FT; 4 pts, 7 reb (5 off), 2 ast. White is only 6'3", but in the land of a bunch of giants, he led all rebounders, and was a key part of the Cardinals getting 13 second chance points. You need someone to do the dirty work, and he did a great job of it last night.
• Jordan Nelson (IWU): 5-11 FG (4-8 3PT); 14 pts, 1 reb, 3 ast. With the Titans' leading scorer in foul trouble, the Titans had to turn to their bench for scoring, and Nelson led the way. He was lethal from deep. Two of his threes came during Wesleyan's late rally from down 11, one to start the rally and the other to make it a two point game.

Around the CCIW

• Augustana 73 (11-1, 1-0), @Carthage 42 (4-7, 0-1)
• @Elmhurst 83 (11-1, 1-0), Wheaton 75 (7-5, 0-1)
• Millikin 77 (6-6, 1-0), @ North Park 67 (8-3, 0-0)

Final Thoughts
Honestly (and I find myself saying this a lot lately), the officiating was pretty bad, but it was bad both ways. There was a stretch before the Titans' final comeback where the Titans got some pretty bad calls go their way, but the many Titans fans that infiltrated Merner were also upset many times at the calls, to the point where allegedly one of them dropped an F-bomb on a ref during a timeout (I didn't hear it, but someone else at the table did). Even so, despite all the fouls and all the free throws that were shot late, the Cardinals took care of business. They're going to rise in the ranking from #21, while Illinois Wesleyan will definitely falter a little bit from their spot at #9.

The men begin a two game road trip, traveling to Decatur to take on Millikin before next Saturday's double header at our greatest rival in Wheaton. They'll be back home on Wednesday the 14th to take on an Augustana team that's ranked second in the nation.

Game Notes: (WBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (1/3/15)

Final Score
NCC 59, IWU 56

Game Summary
It was a slow start for the Cardinals (12-0, 1-0) offensively, as many of their shots, especially threes, failed to fall. The Titans (6-6, 0-1) meanwhile, picked apart the North Central press and got some easy baskets. Then head coach Mia Smith unleashed a brilliant strategy: run four corners on offense to slow the Cardinals down, and expose the back door if it's open. This helped keep the Titans ahead, but the Cardinals slowly crept back into the contest and made it a 29-23 Titan lead at halftime. The Cardinals pulled to within three quickly, but then the Titans retook control, seemingly grabbed every loose ball and built the lead back up to 15. The Cardinals struggled to break through, though they did get the deficit into single digits a couple times, until there were less than seven minutes left. The Cardinals ultimately closed on a 20-6 run, capped off by a go-ahead layup with under a minute to play, and a couple free throws sealed the deal.

Key Stats

• Bobbi Johns (NCC): 3-5 FG, 3-4 FT; 9 pts, 1 reb, 6 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Bobbi actually had a very good floor game, distributing the ball quite a bit during the comeback, while also finding holes in the defense for easy layups. She drove inside to hit what turned out to be the game-winner, then hit a pair of free throws with one and a half seconds left to ice the game.
• Jamie Cuny (NCC): 2-4 FG (0-1 3PT), 1-2 FT; 5 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 6 blk, 1 stl. Jamie typically won't score a ton of points, unless she's hitting a couple threes or getting wide open looks down low. Instead, she cleans up on defense. Her six rebounds led the team, and with six blocks on the night, she has 49 on the season, needing only four more to break the single season record... and we're only halfway through the campaign. She's also now eighth on the all-time list for blocks, and will probably own the all time record by the end of the season.
• Kasey Reaber (IWU): 9-15 FG, 1-4 FT; 19 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 1 blk, 3 stl. Reaber frequently exposed back door openings during the Wesleyan Four Corners phase. She was on pace to be the player of the game, but the late rally was enough to frustrate her.

North Central System Watch

• IWU Turnovers: 18. This is low for North Central in terms of forcing turnovers. The Titans did a pretty good job taking care of the ball, with only a couple throwaways. Ten of them came on steals, with Bobbi Johns and Mayson Whipple each leading the way with two.
• NCC 3PT: 8-37 (21.6%). This is one of the lower numbers in terms of attempts, for one thing. The team shot 3-20 from deep in the first half, with a couple of the makes coming late. Their second half numbers were closer to their average for the season, and they always seemed to come at key moments.
• NCC Chargers Drawn: 5. They had a ton tonight. Truth be told, the first one drawn by Therese Pettersson was probably a bad call, but the following four were all legit. Bobbi Johns, Maryssa Cladis and Anita Sterling also picked up charges in the first half, and then Johns drew a second one in the second half.

CCIW Watch

• Wheaton 67 (11-1, 1-0), @Elmhurst 56 (7-5, 0-1)
• @Carthage 74 (8-4, 1-0), Augustana 51 (6-6, 0-1)
• Millikin 69 (10-2, 1-0), @North Park 66 (8-4, 0-1)

Final Thoughts

This is the sort of game that the 2013-14 Cardinals would have lost. There was a little bit of panic at times where they played out of control, but they never gave up. I kept waiting and waiting for them to make a play in the second half to turn the tide, and eventually they did. It was cause for celebration, but they have to remember: there are 13 games left in conference play. Anything can happen.

Meanwhile, this team remains undefeated, and there is still no respect from the national polls. Mililani comes calling on Wednesday, so we'll see how the Cardinals do against another strong opponent. Meanwhile, enjoy this scene from the end of the game.

Post by North Central College Athletics.

NFL Wild Card Preview

Happy 2015! I hope your 2014 was full of wonderful moments and memories, and that your 2015 will have more of the same!

With the NFL playoffs fast approaching, I want to run through all of the upcoming games this weekend. Much like last year, a lot of people are up in arms about the format of the playoffs, especially that a team with a losing record gets to host a playoff game. I'll say what I said last year: Win your division, get a home game. If you didn't do well enough to win your division, focus on that, not on the supposed "injustices" of the system.

Each game is accompanied by a line from Vegas Insider, which will be taken as close to posting time as possible. This means another 11 games of picking against the spread, something I did not do well in 2014. I did, however, do enough to beat Adam in the Pigskin Pick 'Em. Going in, I needed to tie him to hang on, and it didn't look good after the noon games. Then the Packers got Matthew Stafford to intentionally ground a pass and the Cardinals gave the 49ers a good game and I was able to hang on by a game. The sanctity of COAS is secure for another year.

Let's look at this weekend's slate.