Friday, December 20, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

We're down to the second to last week of the NFL season, and with that our quest to pick NFL games against the spread nears its end.

At this point, I think I all but have to concede another odd year victory to Adam. He took four of seven disputed games last week to further solidify his lead, but for most of the group it was a very successful Week 15, even for me. But I now find myself tied for third after a Geoffrey heater pushed him to second, while Jim and I are standing pat together with 32 games to go.

Adam is off gallivanting on a cruise in the Caribbean this week, so I've recruited Joe to fill in for him. With Adam gone, Joe can finally retaliate for all the unprovoked potshots Adam has taken at him this season, so this should be fun.

Joe and I disagree on seven games out of 16. Let's get to it!

Saturday, Early Afternoon

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
Lucas: Texans. This will probably be a shootout, and even though Jameis can light it up, he'll probably serve up just enough from the bakery to be the difference for Houston.
Joe: Texans. Houston is on a quest to win the AFC South and a trip to the postseason. Even though the Bucs are 7-7 I don’t think they get this win at home.

Saturday, Late Afternoon

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Lucas: Bills. So do the Pats have sideline film on the Bills we aren't aware of? It's a much better defense, and while I still think the Pats win, I think Buffalo makes it close.
Joe: Bills. The Pats had their home game winning streak snapped this year. They are at home and get the win, but I think the Bills make it a close game. I don’t think the Pats make the spread here. Pats win by 3.

Saturday Night

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Lucas: Rams. Taking the points; San Francisco is really good, but I wonder just how good.
Joe: 49ers. San Francisco has their ticket punched to the playoffs, but are still in an NFC West battle with Seattle to win the division. They punish the Rams this week.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Adam's probably picking with his Nick Foles hate boner, but the Falcons seem like they're trying to right their record back to something more... mediocre.
Joe: Falcons. The Falcons took care of business last week against the 49ers. This cost me to lose miserably in our fantasy football league to Lucas. If the Falcons can play like they did last week they will make the points against the Jags.
Lucas note: To be fair, when I get over 65 points combined from my three running backs and a monster Brees-Thomas combination effort... it's hard to overcome that.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. MIAMI'S A FAVORITE!!!!
Joe: Dolphins. TANK BATTLE Part 2. I mean, it is a race for Joe Borrow at this point: who wants him more? Right now it looks like the Bengals will do anything they can to get their new quarterback. Rumors are if Tua makes the draft the Dolphins might bite if he does well at the combine.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+10.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I shouldn't lay double digits on a division game, but the Browns are in absolute freefall. Don't trust the Factory of Sadness.
Joe: Ravens. 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson... that is all.

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Lucas: Saints. I should be leery of the Saints on the road in December... but I'm really not at the moment. Check back with me in the playoffs.
Joe: Saints. Sean Payton’s team is looking for that first round bye for the playoffs; that means they need to win out. Booger McFarland said it on Monday night: it doesn’t really help physically, but it helps a lot mentally and he has experienced both. Having that week off to mentally get your mind in gear will help the Saints push to the Super Bowl.

Carolina Panthers @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I don't trust the Panthers... but I don't trust the Colts either. Taking the points.
Joe: Colts. Indy got smashed on Monday Night Football this week. The Colts are at home against a 5-9 Carolina team that announced they are moving on from Kyle Allen and putting in rookie quarterback Will Grier out of West Virginia. I don’t believe Grier will have a strong outing on his first NFL start.

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Lucas: Giants. Good to see the Giants found their anti-tank weaponry.
Joe: Redskins. Washington is at home and has the same record as the New York Giants at 3-11. Lucas, you think this could be a mini tank battle? It should be fun to see how empty FedEx field is going to be. $71 will buy you a ticket to sit right behind the team on the 50 yard line. I think this is the first time FedEx won't be able to deliver a full house, brought to you in part by the Redskins and the NY Giants. (Horrible Dad Joke)
Lucas note: FedEx Field has been fairly empty for a decent chunk of the season. But the culture... is damn good, right Bruce?


Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. The Steelers are still fighting for their playoff lives, and getting a pushover in the Jets where I only have to lay a field goal? Come on.
Joe: Steelers. This team has been through it all: starting 0-3 to end up as possible wild card playoff team. If the season ended today, they would have the 6th seed. They won’t let a little... bump on the head keep them out of the playoffs. Steelers win and make the points.
Lucas note:

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Glad to see the Lions are keeping their inept folks around for another year. The rest of the NFC North thanks you.
Joe: Broncos. The Lions owner announced this week that their GM and head coach will be staying for the 2020 season, but he has high standards for next year. This tells me the team has packed it in and with the Patricia knowing his job is safe for another year, let's see how far they tank to get a good pick in the draft.

Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I thought about taking a parting shot at the Black Hole, but they kinda scare me. Don't think Vegas is getting the star-studded team they were hoping for.
Joe: Raiders. At the beginning of the season, I thought the Chargers were going to be that surprise team that would make it to the AFC Championship Game. Well, I was wrong and I also did not see the Raiders doing as well as they have been. Rookie Josh Jacobs has been a stud pick up at running back; even though he is injured, he played well last week. If he plays again it should be fun to see him and Gordon run against each other.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I have more faith in Dallas than I do in Philly... and that scares me. Let the stupid "We dem Boyz" nonsense continue for two weeks until the Cowboys get bounced in the playoffs like they always do.
Joe: Eagles. Uncle Jim has said it as well as many other Cowboys fans: when the Cowboys play in Philthy it is a slug match. As Adam and I know, each time Da Bears have played the Eagles at home it is tough. Just like the Bears-Packers game, these teams don’t look at the standings or records. Both teams play each other with hate. The Eagles get revenge from their loss this year at Jerry’s World and sit at number 1 in the horrible NFC East. After last week's win for the Cowboys over an okay Rams team... Is this really your year Cowboy fans?

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Taking the points, but this is also a solidarity pick for my Cardinals the Stagg Bowl. Fight one more round, boys. Bring home the Walnut and Bronze.
Joe: Seahawks. Like I mentioned in my 49ers pick, the Seahawks also want to win the NFC West. Russell Wilson and friends (Lockett and Metcalf) will beat the Cardinals at home, with no 12th man necessary to help them.

Sunday Night

Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears (+5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Ah yes... the "Ryan Pace F***ed Up Bowl." Glorious.
Joe: Bears. Nagy versus Reid; Student versus Teacher. I believe the Chiefs will win this game but I think it will be a close game. Da Biscuit has been playing better and Nagy is finally understanding that the run game works and letting Mitch play his style of football helps. It is rare to have a pocket passer in the NFL now since the rules changed in favor of the quarterback. Trubisky and Mahomes will be fun to watch if both are on their game. Bears lose by 3, but we get the points.

Monday Night

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Lucas: Packers. Getting points on this one? Cool. Go win the NFC North and leave the door open for home field advantage, boys.
Joe: Vikings. The Packers are already in the playoffs with a win over the Bears last week. The Vikings have to play two tough teams at home to get a wild card spot. Minnesota is going to be more hungry the next two games, and playing at home will be in their favor. Vikings win by a touchdown. It would not surprise me if the Packers RELAX the last two games.
Lucas note: ...with the division still up for grabs, and not only a first round bye, but home field up for grabs?

Records So Far
Lucas: 112-112 (10-6 last week)
Adam: 123-101 (11-5 last week)
Joe: 105-119 (8-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 113-111 (12-4 last week)
Aiden: 95-129 (5-11 last week)
Jim: 112-112 (10-6 last week)
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