2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 12 Mock Bracket

Over in Division III of the NCAA, Saturday was the first round of the playoffs, North Central is still alive as one of the top 16 teams in the country. It's a shame that in reality, a 16 team bracket at the FBS level is nothing more than a pipe dream because of corruption and greed. That's where I'm glad Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan wrote the book pictured here.

In this 2010 (and updated in 2011) classic they tear the old Bowl Championship Series apart piece by piece and introduce their replacement plan, which I've adopted as my pick I'd advocate for: a 16 team field where every conference gets its champion in automatically. The rest of the field is filled with deserving at large candidates, and home field advantage reigns for the first three rounds.

The at large selections and seeding processes are suggested to be done by a committee. Since said committee doesn't exist, I try my best to be the committee and build out this scenario to the best of my ability. To do so, I use a number of metrics. I start with a casual look at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which gives a score based on what that schedule looks like. More points are awarded for road games and/or games against Power Five schools, while teams get penalized for playing down a level, though they don't get soapboxed unless you're one of the five schools full of cowards this past week. More importantly, I look at First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, aPP, respectively) as a way of looking beyond records to how good the teams you beat were. Finally, to help reduce bias, and also to factor margin of victory in, I use three sets of computer rankings: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), those compiled by a UCLA staffer using the late David Rothman's formula (ROTH), and those from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS).

These factors all somewhat organically combine to build the field. So without further ado, here is my penultimate 2017 mock bracket.

1. Alabama (11-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 59, PP2: 20.36, aPP: 59; SAG: 1, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 1 (LW: 1)
2. Wisconsin (11-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 59, PP2: 22.91, aPP: 59; SAG: 3, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 2 (LW: 2)
3. Miami (Florida) (10-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 1, PP1: 53, PP2: 23.20, aPP: 53; SAG: 9, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 3 (LW: 3)
4. Clemson (10-1, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 55, PP2: 24.70, aPP: 48; SAG: 2, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 6 (LW: 4)
5. Georgia (10-1, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 56, PP2: 24.60, aPP: 54; SAG: 8, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 5 (LW: 5)
6. Oklahoma (10-1, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 50, PP2: 20.10, aPP: 46; SAG: 7, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 9 (LW: 7)
7. Notre Dame (9-2, At Large)- NCSS: 23, PP1: 56, PP2: 30.44, aPP: 55; SAG: 10, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 7 (LW: 6)
8. UCF (10-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 45, PP2: 16.40, aPP: 45; SAG: 16, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 4 (LW: 8)
9. Auburn (9-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 45, PP2: 21.22, aPP: 41; SAG: 4, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 11 (LW: 9)
10. Ohio State (9-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 49, PP2: 22.56, aPP: 43; SAG: 6, ROTH: 11, AMSTS: 8 (LW: 10)
11. USC (10-2, Pac 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 55, PP2: 21.10, aPP: 51; SAG: 13, ROTH: 15, AMSTS: 12 (LW: 12)
12. TCU (9-2, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 43, PP2: 16.11 aPP: 38; SAG: 12, ROTH: 12, AMSTS: 13 (LW: 11)
13. Boise State (9-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 8, PP1: 49, PP2: 17.00, aPP: 42; SAG: 30, ROTH: 36, AMSTS: 19 (LW: 13)
14. Florida Atlantic (8-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 42, PP2: 16.63, aPP: 32; SAG: 55, ROTH: 59, AMSTS: 30 (LW: 14)
15. Toledo (9-2, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 33, PP2: 12.22, aPP: 30; SAG: 51, ROTH: 46, AMSTS: 26 (LW: NR)
16. Troy (8-2, Sun Belt "Champion")-  NCSS: 5, PP1: 30, PP2: 11.88, aPP: 21; SAG: 81, ROTH: 77, AMSTS: 41 (LW: 15)

Out of the playoffs: Ohio (16)

Photo by Rick Wood (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

There's nothing really new to report in the top four of this week's mock. Alabama and Wisconsin seem pretty close at a glance; Wisconsin has a win over a playoff team, and Alabama doesn't, but the computers favor the Tide by a fairly wide margin. Bama keeps the top spot, but Wisconsin has done well enough to earn the #2 seed for now and get that third home game. Miami will have to settle for two at the moment even though they have two wins over playoff teams; they don't have quite as many Playoff Points (a function of the Arkansas State cancellation) and the computers aren't as high on them either. It's a tough battle for that #4 spot between Clemson and Georgia; both have a win over a playoff team, and Georgia's biggest argument for the #4 seed is the fact that their loss was to a playoff team in Auburn while Clemson's was to a seven loss Syracuse team. But the Tigers have a slightly higher PP2 and the computers like them more. You could talk me into switching them around, but for now Clemson has the edge.

Photo by Daniel Shirey (Getty Images)

Head to head plays an important role as we decide the next spot, as Notre Dame has a slight edge in Playoff Points, but the computers prefer the Bulldogs and Georgia has the all-important head to head victory. They get the #5 seed. The Irish end up falling and switching places with Oklahoma, which if you look at Playoff Points makes no sense, and the Irish hold a slight edge in computer rankings. The big difference: the Sooners are 2-0 against other playoff teams, while the Irish are 0-2. That makes a difference, combined with the fact that Notre Dame has two losses to begin with. Oklahoma moves up. I won't drop Notre Dame any further than #7 though; they've at least got some good wins against teams like Michigan State; Central Florida, even though they're undefeated, has a good win over Memphis, but other than that hasn't really beaten as many high caliber teams, and it shows in their Playoff Points. Nonetheless, that zero in the right spot means something, and it means enough to give UCF the last first round home game.

Photo by Josh Winslow (BuckeyeSports.com)

The rest of the field is full of two-plus loss teams, with Notre Dame being the only one lucky enough to get home field. It's a tough battle to decide which of these teams to send to Orlando. Ohio State has a Playoff Point advantage; Auburn has a computer advantage. The Tigers are 1-1 against playoff teams, while the Buckeyes are 0-1. Even though Ohio State is locked into a conference title game and the Tigers need to beat Alabama this next week, if the season ended today, Auburn gets the edge. At this point, we have two more at large spots to fill, plus a two loss USC team that would hold the temporary auto bid from the Pac 12, and all three are in the mix for spots 10-12. USC has an edge in PP1 and aPP, but they have an extra game. That leaves TCU and Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have the edge in all categories, so they hold firm as well. Comparing TCU and USC, the computers slightly prefer TCU, but USC with their extra game has a hold on Playoff Points, though nothing TCU does this week will likely catapult them ahead. I'll bump the Trojans ahead a spot, and this also serves as my justification to avoiding an Oklahoma-TCU rematch in the first round. The Horned Frogs fall to #12 and get a draw at Georgia instead.

Photo by Allen Eyestone (Palm Beach Post)

That leaves our four Group of Five champions who aren't undefeated for the final four spots. Boise State is the only team in this group with a win over a playoff team (Troy), and they have far and away the best metrics of all remaining teams, so they stand pat at #13. The remaining teams all have a loss to a playoff team, but Florida Atlantic, despite an extra loss that Toledo and Troy don't have, have better Playoff Points numbers. Toledo's computer rankings are better, but the Playoff Point gap is too hard to ignore. The Owls stand firm at #14, which slots Toledo into #15 ahead of Troy due partially to the extra win and the resulting Playoff Point boost, but also thanks to a significant computer advantage. That drops Troy to #16 and Alabama's sacrificial lamb.

Photo by Bettina Hansen (Seattle Times)

Looking at teams to put in over one of the at larges, I was ultimately down to three choices: Washington, Washington State, or Memphis. Memphis has the advantage of being a one-loss team, but Washington State has the edge in Playoff Points, and I can't discount Washington as a two loss Power Five team. Ultimately though, their numbers weren't quite as good as the last at large team, in this case TCU. It's hard to know in what order I'd put those three, but they're the first three out. Obviously, with the Washington-Washington State game coming up someone will gain a major advantage there.

It's that last point that will really have a lot of bearing. Historically, I've given a lot of preference to teams that lose the conference championship game. Even if that team goes in at 10-2, I'm willing to give an at large bid to a three-loss team if that third loss was in that game. I won't boost Playoff Points in any conference championship games this year, partially because not every conference has one (next year, Sun Belt), but also because I'm not sure I want to penalize the team that loses it any more than I have to.

One final note: if you're scoring at home, you may note I've omitted a team from consideration. Penn State's numbers (51 PP1, 22.00 PP2, 46 aPP, and computer rankings SAG 5, ROTH 10, AMSTS 10) would be good enough to take TCU's bid away, though probably nothing more. But I've said it before: Penn State is permanently banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs for being a cult that prioritized the image of the program over the well-being of children and sheltered a pedophile. If you don't like it, don't support a cult. Penn State didn't get the Big Ten auto bid last year for the same reason (Wisconsin got it automatically even though they lost the Big Ten Championship Game), and they're not getting a bid this year or any year in the future.

That's it for Week 12. Tomorrow I'll have a look at the schedule for Rivalry Week and the changes that will be made to NCSS scores. I'll follow that up after the weekend with what will probably be my final look at Playoff Points and my last mock bracket before the real one drops the first week of December.