2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Mock Bracket

I think we're down to just four weeks of the college football season left, which means there aren't too many mock brackets left to make. But every week, things seem to keep getting more and more confusing in the college football landscape, which makes building these mocks more and more complicated.

If you're unfamiliar with this playoff system, it's pretty simple. It's an expanded version of what college football currently uses, based on the system outlined by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in the book pictured here: 16 team playoff, with each conference champion getting an automatic bid, and higher seeds host for the first three rounds. It enhances the college football regular season by attaching meaning to far more games.

Now, to fill and seed the field, the authors wanted a selection committee, and for the purposes of this series of posts, I take on the mantle of selection committee. But I don't just blindly fill the field. I use a number of metrics to help me make my decisions. I look a little bit at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to see how tough of a non-conference slate teams built. More importantly, I look at results based on how good defeated teams are. That's where First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively), come into play. Then to reduce any bias on my part, I look at computer rankings from Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all kind of organically combine to create the seedings.

So, without further ado, let's build another mock bracket!

1. Georgia (9-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 41, PP2: 16.44, aPP: 41; SAG: 3, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1 (LW: 1)
2. Alabama (9-0, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 42, PP2: 13.89, aPP: 42; SAG: 1, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 2 (LW: 2)
3. Notre Dame (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 19, PP1: 39, PP2: 19.75, aPP: 39; SAG: 4, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 3 (LW: 3)
4. Clemson (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 41, PP2: 16.88, aPP: 36; SAG: 5, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 7 (LW: 5)
5. Wisconsin (9-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 36, PP2: 12.78, aPP: 36; SAG: 9, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 5 (LW: 6)
6. UCF (8-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 34, PP2: 12.75, aPP: 34; SAG: 17, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 4 (LW: 7)
7. Ohio State (7-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 33, PP2: 15.14, aPP: 29; SAG: 6, ROTH: 12, AMSTS: 10 (LW: 4)
8. Miami (Florida) (8-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 0, PP1: 31, PP2: 12.00, aPP: 31; SAG: 14, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 6 (LW: 9)
9. Oklahoma (8-1, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 31, PP2: 12.38, aPP: 28; SAG: 8, ROTH: 10, AMSTS: 11 (LW: 12)
10. TCU (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 33, PP2: 10.75 aPP: 30; SAG: 12, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 9 (LW: 8)
11. USC (8-2, Pac 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 37, PP2: 15.13, aPP: 34; SAG: 15, ROTH: 15, AMSTS: 13 (LW: 10)
12. Washington (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 30, PP2: 11.38 aPP: 26; SAG: 7, ROTH: 16, AMSTS: 12 (LW: NR)
13. Boise State (7-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 8, PP1: 32, PP2: 13.00, aPP: 27; SAG: 32, ROTH: 39, AMSTS: 24 (LW: 13)
14. Toledo (8-1, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 24, PP2: 8.38, aPP: 24; SAG: 43, ROTH: 28, AMSTS: 21 (LW: 14)
15. Florida Atlantic (6-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 24, PP2: 10.00, aPP: 15; SAG: 69, ROTH: 68, AMSTS: 37 (LW: 15)
16. Arkansas State (5-2, Sun Belt "Champion")-  NCSS: 6, PP1: 9, PP2: 3.00, aPP: 1; SAG: 75, ROTH: 83, AMSTS: 54 (LW: 16)

Photo from the Associated Press (Photographer uncredited)

Out of the playoffs: Iowa State (11)

I was really worried about a ton of upheaval, and while a lot of seedings got switched around, ultimately only one team got bounced from last week's mock, and that's Iowa State, a team that has knocked off the top two teams in the conference but just lost to West Virginia. Obviously, things can change and they could work their way back to auto bid contention, but with three losses their at large chances are pretty slim.

Photo by Karl L. Moore (Gwinnett Daily Post)

As we look at the field itself though, the top stays almost the same. Georgia and Alabama are 1-2 in some order. Though the PP1 and aPP just barely favor Alabama, Georgia's resume is better as evidenced by their higher PP2, and the computers generally agree with this notion. The Bulldogs keep the top overall spot with Alabama right behind them. Notre Dame stays in at #3 and seems a little more entrenched there this week as opposed to last. Then we ran into some chaos with Ohio State's loss. Clemson is tied with Georgia for the second-highest PP1, and other than the fact that their one loss came to a mediocre Syracuse team, the rest of their metrics measure up well enough that they slot into #4 and get a second home game.

Photo by Darron Cummings (AP)

They edge out Wisconsin for that honor. While the Badgers are undefeated, they don't have that signature win to really push them over the top, but they still lock in a first round home game. I don't know what's up with Jeff Sagarin's ranking, because that's the only thing that goes against what seems to be the grain of Central Florida being a really good team, and one good enough to easily slot in at #6. Right after that is where Ohio State falls in. Two losses is a lot for a first round host, but Ohio State has the fairly solid resume to back it up, and the computers didn't punish them too harshly for losing at Iowa. Then rounding out the top eight, I bumped Miami-Florida up. Their numbers compare pretty favorably to teams like Oklahoma competing for that last home game, but the computers like the Hurricanes better, so with that, all five unbeaten teams will host at least one playoff game.

Photo by Sue Ogrocki (AP)

Oklahoma will have to settle for the #9 seed for now and a trip to South Beach in the first round, but that win over Oklahoma State, as well as the earlier win over Ohio State have them right on the doorstep of a first round home game. You could argue that the head to head win over the Buckeyes, plus Ohio State's having lost a second game means they should flip, but the Buckeyes still have the better metrics. It's close, but the Sooners just edge out TCU for that #9 seed, though that will end up changing next week as they face each other. The Horned Frogs' computer rankings give them the edge over two loss Pac-12 champ USC, who have strong Playoff Points numbers, but aren't as loved by the computers, knocking them down a spot from last week. We have one last at large bid up for grabs, and after looking at a few teams, it goes to Washington, who at 8-1 is probably in the driver's seat for the Pac 12 North title (at least until they play Washington State in a few weeks). The computers love the Huskies as well, which puts them in at #12.

Photo by Otto Kitsinger (AP)

The final four spots go to our Group of Five champions with losses on their resumes. It's a tough call between 7-2 Boise State and 8-1 Toledo for the #13 seed, but the Broncos have a far superior Playoff Point resume, and the computer rankings only slightly favor the Rockets. Boise State gets the 13 seed, while Toledo will have to settle for #14. Conference USA leader Florida Atlantic gets the #15 seed with an equal PP1 and higher PP2 compared to Toledo, but aPP and the computers widely favor Toledo. Atlantic is heads and shoulders above the #16 seed though in a 5-2 Arkansas State team whose numbers don't even come close to any other playoff team.

Photo by Joe Hermitt (Pennlive.com)

As mentioned above, only one team dropped out, and I had four candidates to replace Iowa State. Washington took their spot, but then of the remaining teams I looked at, Michigan State is probably the first team out. Since two loss teams are on the table at this point, Michigan State probably has the best resume of anyone left after knocking off Penn State. Two loss Washington State was also at the table, and could sneak in if they beat Washington in a few weeks. The other team I looked into was Memphis. They're 8-1, and a one loss team from the Group of Five still deserves consideration, especially since their lone loss was to unbeaten UCF. But their metrics just don't quite get them into the picture. We'll keep an eye on them though, and an 11-1 Memphis team with enough other chaos could find itself in the final picture.

Now, if they were eligible, Penn State even at 7-2 would probably have grabbed an at large bid. But remember, as Penn State football is a cult that prioritized the reputation of the program over the well-being of children, they are permanently banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs. For the first few mock brackets, excluding an undefeated team made this decision a little more controversial from a football perspective, but now that they're having some on-field struggles it looks a little more justifiable. But I don't care what outside opinion says: I will not have a cult in these playoffs. Penn State deserved the death penalty, and the NCAA were cowards not to take that option.

I'll get off my high horse now. That's it for our Week 10 college football coverage! I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the non-conference schedule for Week 11.