2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Mock Bracket

I mentioned it early this morning, but in case you didn't see, chaos reigned during Week 11 of the college season. There was even a little bit in D-III as well, where the playoff brackets are built, North Central won the CCIW's automatic bid, and until they get bounced in a disappointing Round 2 performance by UW-Oshkosh or something to that effect, all is right with the world.

Meanwhile, the selection committee for the College Football Playoff has a tall task on its hands, but not as tall as I've got. They only have to fill four spots; I have to fill 16. Now what helps is that, per the design created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan and perfected in the book pictured here, 10 of those spots go to conference champions, the way God and nature intended, yet is perverted by the greed of the big time conference commissioners. So it is that every year I try to take this system built by these authors, and set up a 16 team playoff the way they intend: seeded and on campuses through three rounds.

The trick is how to build the field. Since I don't have the benefit of a selection committee, I use a number of metrics to try and help myself out. To a very minor extent I look at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to see how tough teams made their out of conference schedules. This is mainly just a look at road/home imbalance and how Power Five teams tend to fill their schedules with home games against Group of Five teams (and tomorrow, you get my best rant of the year as to how Nick Saban is a coward). More weight then gets put on First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP). This is basically a tabulation of wins of vanquished teams by a given program, then a deeper look at how good those teams actually were, and then an adjustment to factor in losses. Finally, to make sure I get rid of any bias, I also look at three separate computer rankings: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), the late David Rothman's via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS).

These factors are all kind of organically combined to build the 16 team field that would decide a national champion. After much consideration, as well as some waiting for computer rankings to update while I was working on this, here is the sixth mock bracket of the season.

1. Alabama (10-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 53, PP2: 18.40, aPP: 53; SAG: 1, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1 (LW: 2)
2. Wisconsin (10-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 46, PP2: 17.60, aPP: 46; SAG: 7, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 2 (LW: 5)
3. Miami (Florida) (9-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 1, PP1: 41, PP2: 18.44, aPP: 41; SAG: 9, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 3 (LW: 8)
4. Clemson (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 49, PP2: 21.89, aPP: 43; SAG: 2, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 6 (LW: 4)
5. Georgia (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 44, PP2: 19.22, aPP: 42; SAG: 8, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 5 (LW: 1)
6. Notre Dame (8-2, At Large)- NCSS: 22, PP1: 45, PP2: 25.63, aPP: 44; SAG: 10, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 7 (LW: 3)
7. Oklahoma (9-1, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 44, PP2: 17.89, aPP: 40; SAG: 6, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 8 (LW: 9)
8. UCF (9-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 38, PP2: 14.33, aPP: 38; SAG: 17, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 4 (LW: 6)
9. Auburn (8-2, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 36, PP2: 17.13, aPP: 32; SAG: 4, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 11 (LW: NR)
10. Ohio State (8-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 43, PP2: 20.63, aPP: 38; SAG: 5, ROTH: 11, AMSTS: 9 (LW: 7)
11. TCU (8-2, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 36, PP2: 13.25 aPP: 31; SAG: 12, ROTH: 12, AMSTS: 13 (LW: 10)
12. USC (9-2, Pac 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 46, PP2: 17.44, aPP: 42; SAG: 19, ROTH: 15, AMSTS: 12 (LW: 11)
13. Boise State (8-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 8, PP1: 42, PP2: 15.00, aPP: 36; SAG: 32, ROTH: 39, AMSTS: 22 (LW: 13)
14. Florida Atlantic (7-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 32, PP2: 12.86, aPP: 23; SAG: 59, ROTH: 62, AMSTS: 32 (LW: 15)
15. Troy (8-2, Sun Belt "Champion")-  NCSS: 5, PP1: 26, PP2: 8.63, aPP: 18; SAG: 83, ROTH: 77, AMSTS: 45 (LW: NR)
16. Ohio (8-2, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 23, PP2: 8.13, aPP: 13; SAG: 51, ROTH: 64, AMSTS: 40 (LW: NR)

Out of the playoffs: Washington (12), Toledo (14), Arkansas State (16)

Photo by Morry Gash (AP)

We have a new leader atop the field. With Georgia falling, Alabama retakes its throne as the #1 overall seed and the (theoretically) easier path to the national title game. I had a little bit of a hard time deciding what to do with Clemson as the #4 seed last week that won, but we have two more undefeated Power Five champions, and though their Playoff Points scores aren't quite as high, the computers round Wisconsin out equally and Miami just a hair behind. Wisconsin has higher Playoff Points numbers than Miami, possibly due to the extra game, but also slightly better computer averages, so at this junction Madison would host three playoff games and South Beach two. Clemson holds firm at #4, but could be primed to move up depending on how the rest of the season goes.

Photo by Brett Deering (Getty Images)

Georgia's drop isn't too far, as they slot in at #5. Their numbers still match up very favorably, and they have the head to head result over #6 Notre Dame. The Irish are pretty highly seeded for a two loss team, but their two losses are two the #3 and #5 teams in the field... which could mean a second round rematch with the Hurricanes according to this mock. I'm fine with it for now, but I did correct what could be perceived as an injustice by moving Oklahoma up into the top eight. Now that they have a couple more really good wins, their numbers compare favorably with a lot of other teams, and they finally leapfrogged Ohio State who they beat back in Week 2. We round out our home teams with our last undefeated team in Central Florida. Their numbers compared to a lot of the rest of the field are mediocre, but that zero has to mean something. They get a home game, albeit a tough one.

Photo by Julie Bennett (al.com)

The Golden Knights would get a tough round one test as they welcome a 2017 newcomer in Auburn to the field. The Tigers have two losses, one to #4 Clemson, and another to a pretty good LSU team, but they counter those with their recently acquired win over Georgia. They're favored by the computers, which is what helped them jump in ahead of Ohio State. The Buckeyes won yet dropped three spots even though their numbers are still pretty good. That said, I needed to account for their two losses, especially the Oklahoma one I've kind of ignored for a while. That Playoff Point advantage, combined with computer rankings, does keep them ahead of TCU and as a bonus helps me avoid a first round rematch. Meanwhile, USC wins, but still ends up dropping a spot to #12 with the computer not being as bullish as their Playoff Points are, and it helps avoid another first round rematch.

Photo from Troy Media Relations (photographer uncredited)

We round out the field with our remaining Group of Five champions. Boise State still has the best resume of the remaining champions, and holds firm at #13 with a newly added win over a playoff team to boot. Florida Atlantic is the only three loss team in the field, but they have the most Playoff Points of teams left to seed and the best average computer ranking. They stand pat ahead of our two newcomers. Troy has been lurking in the Sun Belt picture but was blocked by an Arkansas State team that hadn't lost in league play until this past weekend. They have more playoff points than our other remaining team in MAC leader Ohio, though the computer prefer Ohio to Troy. The tiebreaker for me was that Troy has a win over a pretty good LSU team; Ohio has no such signature win.

Photo by Andrew J. Breig (Memphis Daily News)

I figured given the chaos there would be more upheaval with the bracket this week, but it wasn't bad overall. I had to shuffle a bunch of teams around, but at the end of the day only three teams fell out, with just one being an at large berth. I'm still not really sold on the Washington-Washington State debate; WSU has an extra win and more playoff points, but the computers prefer the Huskies, and Washington has a higher NCSS. Then you throw in an 8-2 Oklahoma State team for consideration, a team loved by the computers more than both Washington's and with a reasonable amount of Playoff Points, and the picture becomes muddied. That's also before you factor in an 8-1 Memphis team that the computers kind of like as well, but don't quite have the Playoff Points to factor in, though they're close. Those are definitely my first four out, but I'm not sure what order I'd put them in. That will be fixed over the next couple of weeks, thankfully.

That's all for Week 11! If you're not a fan of hot takes or self-righteous grandstanding, you're going to want to avoid tomorrow's NCSS post. If you are a fan of that type of thing or hate Alabama, you're definitely going to want to check it out as I go to town against cowardice in big time college football.