2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Automatic Bid Games

I started this feature last year, because in Week 14 it's almost all conference championship games, and as such NCSS really won't make any changes. There are a few games where changes will be made, with that said, and you can check my spreadsheet for those updates. A quick survey of my schedule shows that there are all of two games this week that fit that criteria, though I will throw the Army-Navy game in as a feature for this week even though it's a week and a half out. It does count for those metrics.

Speaking of that Army-Navy game, that game won't have any bearing on the playoffs; neither team is in contention for an at-large bid (Navy has five losses, and Army has three without the requisite metrics to overcome them). As such, it thus comes down to a total of twelve games to fill the ten automatic bids. Nine of those are conference title games; I'll go into those games below. The other three are Sun Belt contests, and as the only conference without a championship game, the tiebreakers are once again messy.


American Athletic
Memphis (10-1) @ UCF (11-0)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the American Athletic Automatic Bid.

ACC
Miami (10-1) vs Clemson (11-1) 
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the ACC Automatic Bid.

Big Ten
Ohio State (10-2) vs Wisconsin (12-0)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the Big Ten Automatic Bid.

Big 12
TCU (10-2) @ Oklahoma (11-1)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the Big 12 Automatic Bid.

Conference USA
North Texas (9-3) @ Florida Atlantic (9-3)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the Conference USA Automatic Bid.

MAC
Akron (7-5) vs Toledo (10-2)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the MAC Automatic Bid.

Mountain West
Boise State (9-3) vs Fresno State (9-3)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the Mountain West Automatic Bid.

Pac 12
Stanford (9-3) vs USC (10-2)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the Pac 12 Automatic Bid.

SEC
Georgia (11-1) vs Auburn (10-2)
Conference championship game.
Winner receives the SEC Automatic Bid.

Sun Belt
Troy (9-2, 6-1) @ Arkansas State (7-3, 6-1); Louisiana (5-6, 4-3) @ Appalachian State (7-4, 6-1); South Alabama (4-7, 3-4) @ New Mexico State (5-6, 3-4)
Regular season games. South Alabama @ New Mexico State is listed as a game that may be needed for tiebreaker purposes.
Troy receives the automatic bid with a win AND Appalachian State loss OR New Mexico State win vs South Alabama. Arkansas State receives the automatic bid with a win AND Appalachian State loss. Appalachian State receives the automatic bid with a win AND Troy win vs Arkansas State OR South Alabama win at New Mexico State. This is due to unofficial tiebreakers of results against teams starting in first place and working down the standings until the tie is broken.

Photo by Thomas Graning (Troy Messenger)

I looked back at last year's Sun Belt tiebreaker, and it was a little confusing but pretty straightforward. This one really hurt my head trying to get all the scenarios sorted out. The Troy-Arkansas State game settles half the question, but it's if Appalachian State wins that things get complicated, possibly even involving a game between teams that are a combined 11-13. In effect, all teams are somewhat in control of their playoff fates, but all need a little help to ensure they make it. Troy and Appalachian State have the easier paths in theory since they have an extra result that could tilt things in their favor.

Everyone else has a straightforward path to the Death to the BCS Playoffs: Win and you're in, and that's the case even in the Big 12, where the love of money completely invalidated their regular season. What's nice though is that unlike last year. all of the conference title games will mean something; Penn State and their permanent ban aren't here to muck anything up.

I will return on Monday, and when I do, it will be with the unveiling of the 2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs bracket!