Monday, October 30, 2017

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

I'm running a little behind this week. With Halloween tomorrow and hosting a family party for several of Kristen's and my parent friends, other than scoreboard glancing I saw pretty much no college football over the weekend and didn't get to poring through results until today.

There was chaos over the weekend though, and the numbers we had last week will probably be vastly different this week.

So this morning, I'm going through all the results, and below you will see how each conference ranks in average win totals and the various forms of Playoff Points. If you need a refresher on how Playoff Points work, you can view that here.


American Athletic
Wins: 4.33 (7th)
PP1: 12.50 (5th)
PP2: 7.03 (5th)
aPP: 4.50 (5th)

ACC
Wins: 4.71 (4th)
PP1: 15.07 (4th)
PP2: 8.25 (3rd)
aPP: 6.57 (4th)

Big Ten
Wins: 4.79 (3rd)
PP1: 16.79 (1st)
PP2: 8.94 (1st)
aPP: 9.57 (1st)

Big XII
Wins: 4.50 (T-5th)
PP1: 12.40 (6th)
PP2: 5.70 (6th)
aPP: 3.50 (6th)

Conference USA
Wins: 3.71 (11th)
PP1: 8.21 (9th)
PP2: 4.60 (10th)
aPP: -4.43 (10th)

Independents
Wins: 4.25 (8th)
PP1: 11.50 (7th)
PP2: 5.61 (7th)
aPP: -2.75 (7th)

MAC
Wins: 3.83 (10th)
PP1: 7.92 (10th)
PP2: 4.93 (9th)
aPP: -4.33 (9th)

Mountain West
Wins: 4.00 (9th)
PP1: 10.50 (8th)
PP2: 5.01 (8th)
aPP: -3.25 (8th)

Pac-12
Wins: 5.00 (1st)
PP1: 16.75 (2nd)
PP2: 8.83 (2nd)
aPP: 8.00 (3rd)

SEC
Wins: 4.93 (2nd)
PP1: 15.36 (3rd)
PP2: 7.46 (4th)
aPP: 9.29 (2nd)

Sun Belt
Wins: 4.50 (T-5th)
PP1: 6.17 (11th)
PP2: 3.55 (11th)
aPP: -9.83 (11th)

To see the updated spreadsheet, click here.

Photo by Jay LaPrete (AP)
For the most part again, we have no real surprises. I do have to note out of full disclosure: last week I forgot to update the Adjusted Playoff Points in the ACC (read: I forgot to take away points from the teams that lost). I didn't update the Week 8 post, but those adjustments factor into this week's rankings, which is why the ACC had the drop in aPP it did. I'm impressed most by the Big Ten overall though; they're third in average wins (though only a few wins off the Pac 12's pace) but lead the nation in all three Playoff Points metrics, though most of their leads are narrow. The SEC has some good numbers, and is just outside the Big Ten's lead in aPP. But once again, the stat that amazes me most is how the Sun Belt is tied for fifth in average win totals for its member teams, but is dead last in every Playoff Points metric, and by a lot. The dropoff is pretty stark everywhere, but especially in Adjusted Playoff Points. Their losses have hurt.

Photo by Brian Spurlock (USA TODAY Sports)
This weekend also shook up the leaders in the various Playoff Points categories. Clemson is now in first in PP1 with 34 points, followed by Penn State at 32, Notre Dame with 31, and then there's a three way tie between Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State with 30 points. Notre Dame leads the country in PP2 with 15.43 points, followed by 2-7 Tulsa with 14, 5-3 Iowa with 13.80, Clemson at 13.71, and 4-4 Syracuse rounds out the top five with 13.25 points. Remember though that this is an average of First Degree Playoff Points of defeated opponents, and Tulsa's win over a decent Houston team with a fairly strong resume skews the result a little bit. Finally, in Adjusted Playoff Points, Notre Dame and Penn State are tied at the top with 31 points, with Clemson, Georgia, and Alabama tied for third just one point behind. If you're curious, the worst team in this metric is 1-8 San Jose State, with -33 points, and Baylor has a five point cushion over them for second to last.

I need a little time today to digest this and look over the standings and computer rankings. Later this afternoon, I'll be back with my fourth mock bracket for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

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