Thursday, December 29, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

The fifth season of picking NFL games against the spread all comes down to this. One week. 16 games. The coalition separated by just six games.

Adam went insane last week, making his picks purely based on his fantasy championships. He did all right from what I understand, though he had one opponent whose team went bonkers and he went into Monday night needing Golden Tate to have something like 15 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns to mount the miracle comeback. But on here, his insanity paid off as he managed to take six of our 11 disputed games and pick up one of the games he's lost in recent weeks back. This includes yet another discrepancy between ESPN and Confessions of a Sportscaster where Adam picked the wrong team on ESPN. He actually has one more point than ESPN says he does, which narrows the gap.

This puts him in a tie for third place with my dad, three games back of me. And after spending the first month or two of the season spotting the rest of the coalition a cushion, I've caught fire in recent weeks, and Logan's lead has dropped to one game. It will all come down to these final 16 games. If you want a breakdown of how we've all picked in relation to each other, you can view a spreadsheet of that here.

Now, Adam is on his way to Dallas with his family [insert "Traitor!" video here]. As such, he was unable to get me his picks this week, which I totally understand. I was able to scramble reinforcements for this final week, thankfully. I tried to get Logan to fill in, but he was unable to, so my dad graciously stepped in to take his place and join me for this final round. He had this to say about doing so:
Note to Adam - I'm happy to fill in, only because I'm off from work this week and have the time. You are not Bledsoe to my Brady or Romo to my Prescott. The starting job is still yours.
Well, I guess it's good we don't have a quarterback picker controversy. As for this week, I must be my father's son, because we only disagree on three of the final 16 games. Sorry Dad, that means the best you can do is tie me.

To my fellow competitors: it has been a fun season, and an honor to compete with you all. Good luck!

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (+3.5)
Lucas: Bills. I look forward to Rex Ryan getting that tattoo of his wife in a Mark Sanchez jersey updated to Rams colors in three months. After just having it redone in Bills colors... this is why you gotta be careful with the ink, bro!
Scott: Bills. Buffalo's league leading playoff drought continues, but they will easily handle a Jets team that has lost six games by 18 points or more.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Well, Xavier, there really isn't anyone you need to worry about shadowing too much this week. But maaaaaaybe you should listen to your coach. Or make sure there's no miscommunication, if we want to go by the excuse you're hiding behind.
Scott: Bears. After a promising 5-0 start, the Vikings collapse wouldn't be complete without a home loss to the lowly Bears.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Lucas: Ravens. You know, I had something all nice and written out about Marvin Lewis retiring, and then he announces he's coming back. Fortunately, I don't have to change my pick. I can just say I'm picking the Ravens out of spite now.
Scott: Ravens. Baltimore is 3-3 in their last six games with the three losses coming at the hands of the Cowboys, Patriots, and Steelers, all playoff teams with a combined record of 36-9. The Bengals aren't in that class.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. We'll always have this, Cleveland.
Scott: Steelers. I make this pick after being inspired by seeing Rogue One on Tuesday night. The Cleveland Browns - the Stormtroopers of the NFL.
Lucas note: I got a kick out of this when my dad sent over his picks.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I know Dallas has absolutely nothing to play for this week, but Philly laying points? Come on.
Scott: Cowboys. The top seed in the NFC has nothing to play for and will likely rest many of their starters, so Tony Romo will come off the bench to take down the Eagles.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Texans. Get well soon, Marcus.
Scott: Texans. No Mariota for the Titans means playoff momentum for the Texans (until the playoffs start).
Lucas note: Savage.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Lucas: Colts. Forget London; maybe we should move the Jaguars to Mexico City. The nickname is already perfect, the time difference becomes a non-factor, and suddenly everything becomes like my custom team Madden league except for the lack of teams in Canada, Puerto Rico, and Wahpeton, North Dakota because any time you can put a professional football team in a town of about 8000 people where there's nothing else around for 25 miles, you have to do it.
Scott: Colts. I'm not sure why, but this was the toughest pick of the week for me. Taking the Colts for no reason whatsoever.
Lucas note: Take them for your hometown, Dad!

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+9.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Belichick needing a win to ensure the road to the Super Bowl runs through New England so the Tom Brady Revenge Tour can begin in earnest? Sign me up.
Scott: Patriots. New England is 10-1 since Tom Brady returned, with 8 of those wins coming by double digits. Playing for home field advantage in the AFC, they will cover the 9.5 points.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Lucas: Panthers. That feeling when you need to win and have 17 other things fall your way, including the worst team in the NFC winning to make the playoffs.
Scott: Panthers. The Bucs need a win and a lot of help to make the playoffs. They might get the win to give themselves a chance, but I'm taking Carolina and the points.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Dan Quinn does know that the requirement for Falcons coaches is to bomb your first playoff game, right? Enjoy your #2 seed and your division round exit.
Scott: Falcons. These teams rank #1 and #2 offensively, with the Saints having the edge in yardage and the Falcons leading the league in scoring at 33.5 points a game. An average game gives them the 8th highest single season point total in NFL history. The win gives them the 2nd seed in the NFC.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I don't really trust Matt McGloin, but when I went to Google and searched for GIF's with the search parameter of "Matt McGloin interception," pretty much all of the results were positive. Maybe that says something...
Scott: Broncos. The Raiders can clinch a first round bye with a win and also the #1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Patriots loss. Without Derek Carr, they fall to Denver and have to hope for a Kansas City loss so they don't open the playoffs on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (+5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. FAT GUY TOUCHDOWN!
Lucas note: Also, I enjoyed this.
Scott: Chiefs. The Chargers couldn't beat the Browns. I don't expect them to hang with a Kansas City team that has a shot at a division title and a first round bye.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (+6.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I mean, Bruce Arians has to at least finish half a game below .500, right?
Scott: Cardinals. Arizona has been inconsistent all season, but the Rams have scored the fewest points in the league. They aren't going to stay within a touchdown of the Cardinals.

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (-7.5)
Lucas: Giants. ...who the hell made this line?! Yeah, I get that the Giants have nothing to play for and Washington needs to win and have somebody win the NFC North Championship Game, but laying a touchdown?!
Scott: Redskins. New York is already in and Washington is playing to extend their season. The Giants haven't cracked 20 points in their last four games. Look for the Redskins to win, cover, and still be playing next weekend.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) 
Lucas: Seahawks. You know the perfect cure for struggles? Playing the worst team in the NFC. Watch San Francisco screw up their draft position and somehow pull this one out while bumping the Seahawks down to the fourth seed and have them host the Giants before they break out their January Voodoo Magic Bulls***.
Scott: Seahawks. Seattle has been inconsistent offensively, being held to 12 points or less five times this season. They won't have that problem against a 49ers defense that has allowed 30 or more points in nine games, all losses.

Sunday Night

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Fourth straight NFC North Championship Game for Green Bay, where they're 2-1 so far? Aaron Rodgers back to his normal, MVP self? Detroit not having won a division title since 1993? Indoor game? I like these odds.
Scott: Packers. Stafford and the Lions have been clutch all season long and nothing would make me happier than seeing Green Bay miss the playoffs. I just don't see that happening. 
Lucas note: I think I like this better than the potshot at the Browns, and the potshot at the Browns was good.

Records So Far
Lucas: 124-116 (8-8 last week)
Adam: 121-119 (9-7 last week)
Scott: 121-119 (9-7 last week)
Grant: 119-121 (5-11 last week)
Logan: 125-115 (6-10 last week)

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