2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas! As we close out 2016, I have one final college football related post to write out for the calendar year.

Last week saw the opening round of this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs, which was mostly chalk, with a couple exceptions, including the second straight year of a 14 seed knocking off the 3 seed. But now, the road gets tougher.

With the holiday, I ended up moving this week's games up to Friday so they wouldn't conflict with the NFL, and this also allows the players to get back home for Christmas after the fact. After all, these kids are students first.

So like in the last round, home field advantage goes to the higher seeded team. Weather at kickoff time is taken into account, and I try to adjust teams' offensive depth charts based on injury data taken from Don Best's handicapping website. These games are simulated as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

6pm Games

(9) USC @ (1) Alabama
Game 1: ALA 41, USC 10
Game 2: USC 31, ALA 14
Game 3: ALA 38, USC 13

Photo by Ron Jenkins (Getty Images)

The Crimson Tide converted a pair of third downs on their opening drive before stalling, but managed a field goal to take the early 3-0 lead. Late in the quarter however, the Trojans answered back, marching down the field and taking the lead on a seven yard strike to Daniel Imatorbhebhe. Alabama didn't need long to bounce back, as Damien Harris broke free for a 66 yard touchdown to give the Tide a 10-7 lead in the final minute of the opening quarter. They forced a punt, then marched right downfield again, with Jalen Hurts taking a quarterback keeper 10 yards for a touchdown to make it 17-7. It remained that way until the third quarter, when Alabama couldn't capitalize on a Sam Darnold interception, and the Trojans were able to tack on a field goal. They forced a three and out and got great field position, but Matt Boermeester, who had just hit from 49, missed from 50 off the upright, and the Tide needed just three plays to score, as a 39 yard catch and run by Miller Forristall set up a 12 yard Damien Harris touchdown to make it 24-10. Adoree' Jackson had a great kick return to the Alabama 40, but the Trojans stalled and had to settle for a field goal. USC also threatened early in the fourth quarter, but Darnold threw a pick to Marlon Humphrey to end the threat. Joshua Jacobs broke free for a 48 yard touchdown run for the Tide midway through the fourth and it was over, though Jacobs would add one more touchdown run for the final margin.

Jalen Hurts was an efficient 10-17 for 157 yards, but it was the ground game that won the day for Alabama. Damien Harris ran 13 times for 127 yards and two scores, Joshua Jacobs added 80 yards and two scores on 10 carries, and Hurts rushed for 40 yards and Alabama's other touchdown. Sam Darnold finished the day 26 of 40 for 250 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions and was sacked twice. After a solid game last week, Ronald Jones II was held to 54 yards rushing on 20 carries for USC.

(7) Western Michigan @ (2) Ohio State
Game 1: OSU 48, WMU 23
Game 2: OSU 23, WMU 20

Photo from Ohio State Department of Athletics

The Broncos' undefeated season comes to an end in Columbus, and in heartbreaking fashion. It was all Ohio State early, however, as J.T. Barrett broke loose on the first play of the game for a 53 yard keeper, and Mike Weber capped the drive with a four yard touchdown plunge that put the Buckeyes up 7-0 less than a minute and a half into the game. The Broncos were able to get into scoring range, but kicker Butch Hampton hooked a 44 yard field goal wide right. Ohio State took advantage, taking 4:29 off the clock in nine plays to get a 36 yard field goal and make it 10-0. Fortune began to favor the Broncos though late in the first quarter, when they blocked an Ohio State punt and recovered it at the Buckeye 29. Then, early in the second quarter, Zach Terrell hit D'Wayne Eskridge from 17 yards out for a touchdown, but Hampton missed the extra point to keep the score 10-6. Ohio State answered with an almost five minute drive that resulted in a 36 yard field goal and pushed the lead back to a touchdown. Neither offense got anything going until Western Michigan fumbled and the Buckeyes recovered with time winding down, but Dontre Wilson's late catch from Barrett saw him get tackled at the one and the Buckeyes were unable to get another snap off. The defenses played well to start the second half, but finally the Broncos woke up late in the third quarter as Jamauri Bogan broke free on a draw for a 30 yard touchdown to tie the game. The defenses settled in again, with Western Michigan even picking off Barrett once, which shifted field position in their favor. They had to punt, but pinned Ohio State deep, forced a punt, and got the ball well inside Buckeye territory. The Broncos needed just six plays and about two minutes before Jamauri Bogan broke free again, punching one in from seven yards out to give Western Michigan a 20-13 lead. Barrett completed a couple downfield passes on the ensuing drive, and Mike Weber capped the drive with a 20 yard touchdown run to tie the game with two and a half minutes to play. Western Michigan went three and out, and Ohio State needed to go only 37 yards as Tyler Durbin hit from 36 yards out at the buzzer to push the Buckeyes back to the semifinals.

J.T. Barrett completed 16 of 22 passes for 211 yards and also picked up 99 yards rushing on 25 carries, while Mike Weber got the glory with 22 carries for 66 yards and two touchdowns for Ohio State. Zach Terrell completed 12 of 16 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown, Jarvion Franklin ran 23 times for 106 yards, Jamauri Bogan ran 14 times for 61 yards and two scores, and the Bronco defense sacked Barrett four times in the loss.

9pm Games

(5) Michigan @ (4) Washington
Game 1: WAS 50, UM 17
Game 2: UM 34, WAS 29
Game 3: WAS 48, UM 13

Photo by Elaine Thompson (AP)

I thought for a minute that we'd have a fun third simulation, but WhatIfSports and the Huskies had other ideas. This one got out of hand quick as Lavon Coleman broke a 68 yard touchdown run on the first play of the game to put Washington up 7-0. The Wolverines went three and out, Washington started from midfield, and they tacked on a field goal to make it 10-0 before a lot of people could even blink. After another three and out, Myles Gaskin broke a 46 yard run to set up another field goal to make it 13-0. Michigan finally picked up a first down on their next drive, but had to punt away again, and after a great return, Washington needed just four plays and a hair over a minute for Gaskin to punch one in from six yards out and make it 20-0 late in the first quarter. Michigan got in the red zone early in the second quarter, but had to settle for a field goal to break the shutout. Later in the quarter Michigan would finally get a long, sustained drive that was capped off by Ty Isaac punching one in from ten yards out to make it 20-10. They left three minutes on the clock, however, and the Huskies only needed about half of that after a solid kick return Lavon Coleman would eventually take one in from 28 yards out to make it a 27-10 game at halftime. The Wolverines got a field goal late in the third quarter to make it a two score game again, but a 44 yard Gaskin run helped set up a touchdown strike to Chico McClatcher right before the end of the third quarter to make it 34-13. Taylor Rapp added a pick six for Washington, and the Huskies would tack on one more touchdown following a turnover on downs to reach the final margin.

Myles Gaskin ran wild again for the Huskies with 193 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries, Lavon Coleman made the most of his six carries with 104 yards and a touchdown, and Jake Browning completed 16 of 30 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown. Ty Isaac had Michigan's lone touchdown, but managed just 14 yards rushing on eight carries, De'Veon Smith picked up 82 yards on 18 carries, and Wilton Speight finished the day 20-36 passing for 203 yards and that pick-six by Taylor Rapp.

(14) Western Kentucky @ (6) Oklahoma
Game 1: OU 49, WKU 41
Game 2: OU 59, WKU 52 (2OT)

Photo by Kyle Phillips (The Transcript)

The clock strikes midnight for the Hilltoppers, but only after one of the best games in Death to the BCS Playoffs history. The Hilltoppers needed three plays and less than a minute to begin their quest to keep on dancing as Anthony Wales hauled in a 46 yard touchdown pass from Mike White. The Sooners went three and out, but got a huge defensive play on a Steven Parker interception, which they turned into a four yard Mark Andrews touchdown catch seven plays later. The Hilltoppers tacked on a 28 yard field goal late in the quarter to take a 10-7 lead, but the Sooners answered right back, as Baker Mayfield hit Dmitri Flowers from 18 yards out to make it 14-10 Oklahoma. Western Kentucky responded in kind on a 22 yard strike to Nacarius Fant two minutes later, and the shootout was on. A Samaje Perine 55 yard run put the Sooners on the doorstep, but they had to settle for a field goal that tied the game at 17. The offenses stalled for a few minutes after that, but the Hilltoppers marched 77 yards, plus penalty yardage they had to earn back, and Mike White hit Nicholas Norris from four yards out to make it 24-17 Western Kentucky. But Baker Mayfield hit Nick Basquine for a 47 yard catch and run, and Basquine got out of bounds with eight seconds left. After a 10 yard Mayfield scramble out of bounds, the Sooners were able to add a short field goal to make it 24-20 at the half. Perine fumbled on the first play of the third quarter, the Hilltoppers recovered, and White hit Shaquille Johnson five plays later from 22 yards out to make it 31-20. Mayfield was able to convert a third and 16, but on the next play threw a pick to Leverick Johnson, and after a 40 yard draw by Quinton Baker, Mike White hit Anthony Wales from three yards out to give Western Kentucky an 18 point lead. Oklahoma stalled again just outside of field goal range, but pinned the Hilltoppers deep, forced a punt, and Mayfield found Mark Andrews for a 52 yard catch and run touchdown to narrow the gap. The Sooners scored again early in the fourth quarter on a Perine one yard plunge, and got the two point conversion on a pass to Dede Westbrook to make it 38-35. The Hilltoppers answered with a drive deep into Sooner territory, but Jordan Thomas picked off Mike White, and the Sooners went 56 yards in just over three minutes for a 37 yard field goal to tie the game. Western Kentucky got a quick answer, as Anthony Wales' 67 yard scamper set up a nine yard touchdown to Nicholas Norris with about five and a half minutes to go, and the Hilltopper defense forced a punt. Western Kentucky burned a chunk of clock and got into scoring range, but Skyler Simcox's 37 yard attempt bounced off the upright and Oklahoma had life. They overcame a second and 15 after a sack, and with ten seconds left, Mark Andrews was able to take a Mayfield pass and find the end zone to tie the game.

In the first overtime, a Dede Westbrook 28 yard catch converted a third and 15, and a few plays later Joe Mixon punched one in from six yards out to give Oklahoma the lead. On their possession, Western Kentucky converted a fourth and four and got a pass interference call to set up first and goal at the one, and White hit Taywan Taylor to tie the game. In the second overtime, White was picked off by Jordan Evans, and Baker Mayfield hit Nick Basquine from a yard out to win the game (though they then inexplicably kicked the extra point, so it should have been a 58-52 final).

Baker Mayfield was ridiculously efficient, completing 29 of 35 passes for 514 yards, five touchdowns, and one pick. Samaje Perine had 16 carries for 103 yards and a score, Dede Westbrook caught seven passes for 137 yards (plus a two point conversion), Mark Andrews had five catches for 107 yards and three touchdowns, and Tay Evans recorded two sacks for the Sooners. Mike White had a pretty good day for the Hilltoppers, going 27-42 for 412 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions, including that crucial one in the second overtime. Taywan Taylor caught nine passes for 136 yards and a touchdown, Anthony Wales had 27 carries for 154 yards and added four catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns, Nicholas Norris chipped in six catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns, and Western Kentucky sacked Mayfield five times.

To see the updated bracket, click here.

Photo by Alex Otte (Glasgow Daily Times)

We now have a game in the annals of the Death to the BCS Playoffs that rivals last year's TCU-Stanford overtime thriller. It's just a shame that the Cinderella story that Western Kentucky was writing collapsed in the fashion that it did.

As seems to happen in most of these playoffs though, chalk got rocked. Our top two seeds saw their guarantee of three home games and took them, as Alabama and Ohio State will host games on New Years Eve. For the Tide, it's the second straight season they will host a third playoff game as they continue their quest for a repeat. Ohio State finds itself in the semis for the second straight year, but they will end up facing an Oklahoma team bent on revenge for last year's elimination. Alabama, meanwhile, will have to go through a prolific Washington offense in Tuscaloosa on New Years Eve for the right to return to Pasadena and a spot in the Death to the BCS Championship.

I will be back on New Years Day with a look at how these games ended up, noting that we have some slight differences from the College Football Playoff that will be taking place on the same day. Enjoy the rest of your 2016!