I decided in my first full fall of writing for COAS that I wanted to do a weekly series picking NFL games against the spread. It's now Year Five, and I couldn't be more thrilled to pick this series up again.
Of course, I never like to do this alone, so to make a competition out of it I have invited Adam Quinn, a buddy of mine, to join me in this weekly escapade. He and I will post our picks here weekly with a short rationale. Sometimes these will be grounded in reality. Other times, we pick based on things like cheerleaders, polar opposites to gut reactions, or out of disgust for bee uniforms.
Whatever Adam did last year, it worked. He is our defending champion, and will be going up against not only me, but a few invited guests. My dad, who also beat me last year, returns for the second straight year, and I've also recruited my cousin Grant into the fold. My brother Logan, who is a senior at Aurora Central Catholic, will round out our group of five. I will have our standings posted at the bottom every week.
So as we kick off the season, Adam and I disagree on only four of the 16 games. Without any further ado, let's get to it! Good luck to my fellow pickers!
Thursday Night
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I'm normally inclined to go with the defending champ in the opener, but the Broncos are led by Trevor Siemian against a still pretty fearsome defense. Unless Wade Phillips does more Wade Phillips things on defense, I'm taking the road team.
Adam: Panthers. Is this really a question? What does Denver have left? A few solid receivers but a nobody to throw to them. I have avoided the Denver receiving corps pretty much all fantasy draft season. Superman shows us the way in this contest.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Had the Seminoles not come back from their big deficit against Ole Miss, I would have made a bunch of crab leg jokes here. Not that it matters; the Bucs still employ Chris Conte at safety.
Adam: Falcons. The Bucs should be improved over last season with 2nd year QB Winston but I see a bigger bounce back at home for Matty Ice and his receiving corps. Julio for 95yd and 2TDs.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Bills. I'm not sold on the Ravens, so I'm a little shocked they're favored, even if it's only half a point above the usual home field advantage spread. Take the points.
Adam: Bills. Hey, here is a great idea: let's release our lead back to hope that we can get him back…WHAT. Okay, I am
sure there is some still salary thing that they did it for, but man, if that was
me, I would be like, "Eff you man, I’m out."
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans (-4.5)
Lucas: Texans. Josh Sitton can only help you so much inside. Who gave JJ Watt the Senzu Bean?
Adam: Texans. Here are the rules: if the spread is less than a touchdown either
way, I will pick against the Bears. Anything +/- 7.5 or more I take the Bears. I fear this will be another tough season for Chicago. Oh, and the Bears take advice
from the History Channel freak.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+1.5)
Lucas: Jets. Taking the points and the home upset. I'm a little worried with Ryan Fitzpatrick not getting full camp reps, but he should be fine.
Adam: Bengals. Should be a good game, but I am seeing a resurgence from
Hill not Forte. With that it takes away
from the coverage from A.J. and the passes start to connect. Hill with 17-123-1. Oh, and the BenGals are hot.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Lucas: Browns. Taking the points only because I don't have that much faith in Carson Wentz (Go Bison).
Adam: Eagles. Philly at home, I’ll give the points, but that is all I have
to say about this crappy game.
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
Lucas: Packers. I want to know what the hell Ted Thompson was thinking cutting Josh Sitton. Is there something we didn't see? Not that it should matter for this week, but still.
Adam: Packers. I am a little surprised the line is not a little higher, but
it is early in the season. Nelson is
coming off his injury and Rodgers is coming off his worst season in a while, if
not ever. The Jags should be a much improved
team but I think Bortles will be a huge bust this season... at least from a
fantasy perspective.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Lucas: Titans. Let's see... you replace your young star quarterback whose knee asploded with a quarterback who doesn't have a perfect health history because his knee also asploded? What could go wrong?
Adam: Titans. Actually a pretty hard call given the Minnesota QB
situation. But I think the Titans,
behind Mariota, are able to meld a little better than AP, I mean Minnesota.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Only to take the points, even though the Chargers aren't very good and are missing one of their best weapons. Just a hunch.
Adam: Chiefs. I hate large spreads in games that should be a blow out, but
could end up pretty close. Given that
Ware will get the totes for KC since Charles is sidelined (I think). With both teams at 100% I am confident with
KC. Now I'm not as sure, but still think the Chiefs' offense will have some pretty solid players.
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Lucas: Saints. I think the Raiders might be the better team, but they're playing at 10am according to their body clocks. Give me the home team with the narrow edge.
Adam: Saints. For my season long projection pick, Coby Fleener out scores
Gronk-a-lonk in total touchdowns. But let’s be
honest, there is not much in Oakland that can be trusted. I am not even that high on Carr this year.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. While I'm normally iffy about taking an almost double-digit spread, the Dolphins are not very good, and Seattle is at home. I'd probably even consider this pick if you gave the Dolphins another three or four points.
Adam: Dolphins. Taking the points, but also I think Fins are being undervalued and Seattle overvalued at this point in the season. Also if you are in fantasy, buy all the shares of Christine Michael that you can. Rawls will fall on his face.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Lucas: Giants. Dak Prescott at quarterback? No thanks, not today.
Adam: Giants. Exhibit A [EDITOR'S NOTE: NSFW LANGUAGE]...
Lucas note: #FlyTheW
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Lucas: Colts. I still want to know how the Lions intend to replace Megatron, because it's not going to help this week. Andrew Luck, King of the Back Door Cover won't need a back door cover this time.
Adam: Colts. Not much to say, just like the Colts by a TD in this spot.
Sunday Night
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. This line was up probably a month before the game started, and I'm pretty sure this took into account that Jimmy Garoppolo is starting for the Pats. I'm taking that into account with my pick. [expletive] Goodell.
Adam: Cardinals. Oh, if only the Pats had Brady for this game. Man would that be fun. David Johnson shows why he was worthy of that 1st
round draft spot. Here is my obligatory
hottie for the week: T Swift singing
Brady’s song.
Lucas note: I'm as anti-T-Swift as they come, but this is pretty good.
Monday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (+3.5)
Lucas: Steelers. No Le'Veon Bell? Shouldn't be too big a problem. I look forward to "You Like That!: The Sequel," Kirk.
Adam: Steelers. Like I said before, sometimes I don’t get the lines but it is
early in the season. Even with Bell smoking
sitting on the sidelines for a few games, I don’t see how Pittsburgh does not rout
Washington.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
Lucas: Rams. It's going to take some getting used to typing "Los Angeles Rams" instead of "St. Louis." I guess it could be worse; in an alternate universe, the Chicago Bears relocated to Mexico City in 2013 and become the Rhinos with a scorpion logo for some reason. I still mourn the waste of poor virtual Aaron Rodgers' career.
Adam: Rams. ‘Murica.
Records Last Season
Lucas: 116-140
Adam: 126-130
Scott: 119-137
Grant: 0-0
Logan: 0-0
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