2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Mock Bracket

I guess today you can call me Dr. Frankenstein.

Halloween just happens to fall on a Monday this year, which is when I'm doing my mock college football playoff brackets. And given the carnage that took place over the weekend, the name seems appropriate.

Just five undefeated teams remain at the FBS level, and no more than one in any given conference. The good news is that this helps free up some at large berths. The bad news is that picking out my conference "champions" for the week is going to be difficult, as I have to really look at standings.

As a refresher, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are the format created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in an effort to get rid of the elitism rampant in big time college football. They created a 16 team field filled with all ten conference champions and six at large teams, though their method of filling the bracket was left to a committee. As a committee of one, I look at records and try to fill that in with seven metrics: Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These kind of organically merge together to seed the field 1-16, with home field advantage going to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. This means the top two seeds get three home games assuming we rock chalk, the top four seeds get two, and a top eight spot earns you a first round home date. So, without further ado, let's check out the latest mock bracket.

1. Alabama (8-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 39, PP2: 17.13, aPP: 39, SAG: 1, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1. (LW: 1)
2. Clemson (8-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 37, PP2: 15.00, aPP: 37, SAG: 4, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 3. (LW: 3)
3. Michigan (8-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 32, PP2: 13.13, aPP: 32, SAG: 2, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 2. (LW: 2)
4. Washington (8-0, Pac-12 "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 25, PP2: 8.25, aPP: 25, SAG: 5, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 4. (LW: 7)
5. Ohio State (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 29, PP2: 13.57, aPP: 27, SAG: 3, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 5. (LW: 5)
6. Texas A&M (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 25, PP2: 13.57, aPP: 25, SAG: 9, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 6. (LW: 4)
7. Louisville (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 23, PP2: 8.86, aPP: 23, SAG: 7, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 7. (LW: 6)
8. Western Michigan (8-0, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 27, PP2: 9.13, aPP: 27, SAG: 24, ROTH: 13, AMSTS: 8. (LW: 11)
9. Auburn (6-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 21, PP2: 9.17, aPP: 20, SAG: 6, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 9.(LW: NR)
10. Wisconsin (6-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 26, PP2: 11.33, aPP: 25, SAG: 11, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 10.(LW: NR)
11. Nebraska (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 23, PP2: 9.00, aPP: 21, SAG: 24, ROTH: 19, AMSTS: 10. (LW: 9)
12. Oklahoma (6-2, Big XII "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 20, PP2: 6.83, aPP: 17, SAG: 10, ROTH: 27, AMSTS: 19. (LW: 13)
13. Troy (6-1, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 15, PP2: 5.17, aPP: 15, SAG: 66, ROTH: 26, AMSTS: 16. (LW: 14)
14. Wyoming (6-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 21, PP2: 9.50, aPP: 16, SAG: 88, ROTH: 46, AMSTS: 21.(LW: NR)
15. Temple (6-3, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 22, PP2: 9.33, aPP: 14, SAG: 49, ROTH: 52, AMSTS: 38.(LW: NR)
16. Louisiana Tech (6-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 7, PP1: 14, PP2: 5.17, aPP: 5, SAG: 68, ROTH: 74, AMSTS: 49.(LW: 16)

Out of the playoffs: West Virginia (8), Tennessee (10), Boise State (12), Navy (15)

Photo by Melina Vestola (USA TODAY Sports)

Two of the four knocked out teams were undefeated, but I'll get back to them a little later. There isn't much of a change at the top; Alabama is still far and away the best team in the country by pretty much every measurement. This brought up a good battle for the #2 seed between Michigan and Clemson, and despite Michigan holding the edge coming into the week, the Tigers have two wins over teams in the Death to the BCS Playoffs field, while the Wolverines only have one, which breaks the tie between my metrics (advantage Clemson) and the computers (advantage Michigan). And finally with a signature win over Utah to put on their resume, Washington jumps three spots to secure a second home game.

Photo by Don Speck

Among one home game teams, we've got our three one-loss at large teams that have been up in the mix here for most of the season since I started doing mocks. The Buckeyes actually stand pat while Texas A&M drops two spots to below Ohio State, as the Buckeyes' rebound victory over Northwestern is a better win than the Aggies' rebound win over New Mexico State. With Ohio State's lead in pretty much all metrics, the numbers back this up. That bumps Louisville down a spot to #7, as their aggregate numbers aren't quite as good. And finally, with only five undefeated teams left, I can safely bring Western Michigan up into the realm of hosting seeds and grant them the eighth and final home game in Round One, despite their bye this past week.

Photo by Jason Caldwell (scout.com)

There were still three at large berths left to fill at this point, and I ended up really looking at five teams for these three spots. Auburn, who had largely been off my radar despite having a solid season, jumps into the field at 6-2 and leapfrogged other teams like Houston, who I hadn't really thought of for this week, largely due to their top-nine computer rankings and top-35 Playoff Points numbers (which is a low estimate due to their PP2). They edge out another newcomer in Wisconsin due to a better result over a common opponent (LSU), as well as better computer rankings to trump the Badgers' stronger Playoff Points resume. I then gave the last at large bid to Nebraska, with the Huskers' victory over a conference champion (and thus playoff team) being the deciding factor over a couple of the teams I had to leave out. That leaves five conference champions left, starting with a 6-2 Oklahoma team that doesn't quite have the resume to jump out of the #12 seed, but is a prime 12-5 upset candidate.

Photo from Temple Football Twitter (photographer uncredited)

We then round things out with Troy, who was idle this past week but still maintains the strongest numbers of the remaining conference champions, moving up a spot to #13. The Cowboys, who upset Boise State over the weekend, get their first spot in a Death to the BCS mock bracket with their current hold on first place in the Mountain West's Mountain Division and get the edge over San Diego State due to the aforementioned Boise State win. They edge out Temple for the #15 seed, who thanks to their win over South Florida would win the American Athletic East Division and their better numbers than Navy seal the deal. Finally we round out with our Conference USA champion in Louisiana Tech, who beat Rice, for all the good that does, this week, but are clearly the weakest team in the field.

Photo by Jenna VonHofe (Casper Star-Tribune)

I debated about South Florida (and Houston to a degree), but both were really out of consideration quickly. West Virginia's first loss knocked last week's #8 seed out, as they don't have a signature win to boast of this season. Tennessee had a strong start to their year, but with three straight losses they can't be taken seriously. A three loss team has no business being an at large entrant into the playoff field; I don't think I've ever put one in, and I'm not starting now, not with a number of qualified 1- and 2-loss teams still in play. Boise State was my first team out; they rank in the top 10 in First Degree and Adjusted Playoff Points, but they don't have a signature win on their resume either. They were right in the mix of things with Auburn, Wisconsin, and Nebraska for that last at large berth, and if they go on to finish 11-1, they stand a decent chance of climbing back in. We'll keep an eye on it.

I also want to make sure I note for those of you new to Confessions of a Sportscaster that no, I did not forget about Penn State. They've got a very strong resume and are clearly one of the top teams in the country. However, due to their earlier insistence on covering up child rape, they are permanently banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs. Baylor suffered the same fate going into this season due to their sexual assault scandal. The only other teams disqualified are any teams that have played multiple FCS opponents, which to date should just be Kent State, who isn't in a position to earn a playoff berth.

I figured things would be a bit of a mess, but overall it wasn't too bad. I really had to look at a few resumes to give a couple of boots and finalize the seeding, but I think overall it's one of my stronger mock brackets. I'll be back next weekend, hopefully on time, with another mock bracket with all Week 10 data included!