Thursday, October 20, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 7

I had a decent bounceback week in Week 6 of our consortium's picks against the spread, but unfortunately I haven't gained any ground.

Adam and I split our six disputed games last week, leaving us where we were the week before. He has a nine game lead over me and remains in first place, maintaining a three game lead over my cousin Grant. Meanwhile, I'm still in last place, though I picked up a couple games on my dad and Logan to keep everyone reasonably well packed in together.

We've got another two teams on bye this week, leaving us with 15 games to pick. Adam and I disagree on five games on this week's slate. If you want a breakdown of how everyone has picked in comparison to each other, I've got an updated breakdown available here.

Thursday Night

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Lucas: Packers. Everything in my head is screaming at me to not take the Pack. They're 0-3 at home against the spread this season, their best corner just went on injured reserve, Aaron Rodgers has been replaced by an imposter, and with Eddie Lacy and James Starks hurt, Knile Davis is the answer to the problems. Then again, I look across the field and see a team that blew a 13-0 lead at home to freaking Jacksonville. I'm going to take Green Bay despite the huge line, but I'm not 100 percent sold on it.
Adam: Bears. Going back to my Week 1 comments, I pick the Bears if the line is over a touchdown.

Sunday Morning

New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
Lucas: Giants. EFF OFF, BEN MCADOO! THEY'RE IN LOVE! WHO ARE YOU TO SAY THAT A MAN CAN'T MARRY A KICKING NET?!
Adam: Giants. I hope OBJ and the net live happily ever after.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Sure, Miami just pulled off a big upset against the Steelers last week, but the Bills are on a roll, and I don't see Ryan Tannehill and company knocking them off course.
Adam: Bills. Give the Fins credit for last week, but even with McCoy potentially out, the defense of Buffalo will ride wild.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5)
Lucas: Browns. Pulling for a second straight back door cover, because this line is pretty high. Also, I've lost count of how many times I've written this on here, but Vontaze Burfict is a thug who needs to be suspended, not fined. Idiot doesn't get it.
Adam: Browns. See my comments from last week... back door cover for the point...

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (-1.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Methinks I've been underestimating the Skins so far this season, and this seems like a good time to stop.
Adam: Redskins. No faith in Detroit from me right now.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Titans. If you can't beat a struggling Brock Osweiler, how can you expect me to pick you to lose by less than a field goal or win against a so-so Titans squad?
Adam: Colts. Tough game to call, I will take Luck and Hilton over Mariota this week.

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Lucas: Saints. Taking the points and praying that if I go down, I go down via a fat guy touchdown.
Adam: Saints. Even Brees on the road is better than most QB's in the league.

Oakland Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I think we can safely say at this point that Jacksonville was overrated by the media at large this season. Especially since Oakland has done a pretty good job flipping the narrative of West Coast teams playing at noon, I'll take them in the pick 'em.
Adam: Raiders. How is this line only 0.5? Way to short in my opinion; Jacksonville should be a dog by 2.5.
Lucas note: Can't argue with that line. Maybe the sharps playing the "West coast team playing out east" angle, even though the Raiders have kind of spit in the face of that logic?

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I know home field is supposed to be worth about three points, but this line almost seems too low for me. Are they overrating Photoshopped Sam Bradford?
Adam: Vikings. Another example of why I don't set lines. I don't see how Philly is only a 2.5 point dog at home against the crazy good Minnesota defense.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (-0.5)
Lucas: Ravens. ...are the sharps watching the same Jets team that by pretty much all accounts is a garbage team? HOW ARE THEY FAVORED?!
Adam: Jets. In other news, Geno Smith can now talk and it seems he did deserve to be punched in the face...
Lucas note: On a related note, Brandon Marshall is the best.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

San Diego Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Atlanta shouldn't need to hold out for a missed pass interference call to win this time around, even though they covered even with the miss. On a related note, I'm totally open to making PI calls reviewable.
Adam: Falcons. Until Matty Ice and crew can show me a reason they are not a one touchdown favorite against just about any team I will keep picking them. And at home? Slam dunk in my book.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (+1.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Whatever your stance on the anthem kneeling controversy, it's spread to the CCIW. I'm really only referencing this because "Big Blue" is a weird team nickname, though it's hilarious to say the words "Big Blue ball" over the PA system, especially when the person sitting next to you at the scorers' table, without skipping a beat, comments, "That is a big blue ball."
Adam: 49ers. Don't care, don't care, don't care.

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. With Big Ben out, this is almost unfair. What did we learn last week, Adam?
Adam: Patriots. Oh Ben.

Sunday Night

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) 
Lucas: Seahawks. Seattle might be finding its groove at this point in the season, and I'm surprised they're getting a point and a half. Arizona isn't all that good.
Adam: Cardinals. DJ - need I say more? He is basically match-up proof against a weaker than expected Seattle D.

Monday Night

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Lucas: Texans. I don't like this line. I think it's too high, so I'm taking the cushion, but I could totally see the Broncos winning this one going away.
Adam: Texans. I just like the points here; not sure why, just like them.

Records Last Week
Lucas: 41-51 (8-7 last week)
Adam: 50-42 (8-7 last week)
Scott: 44-48 (6-9 last week)
Grant: 47-45 (8-7 last week)
Logan: 43-49 (6-9 last week)

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