2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 7 Mock Bracket

In theory, at least, this process should be getting easier.

Last week I unveiled this season's first mock playoff bracket based on the format put together by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. I continue to cite them in all of these posts because I can't take credit for the idea for this format. It was their brainchild, and they deserve all of the credit.

They didn't delve much into how to decide that field, except that all conference champions would receive an automatic bid. How the seedings would be assigned is left to a selection committee. For the purposes of COAS, I am that selection committee.

I use a number of metrics to help me decide the teams who make it and their seeds. I combine the use of Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively), and then balance that out with computer rankings derived from formulas created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and now from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all combine somewhat organically to build the bracket.

If you want an explanation on these scores, you can view that in last week's mock post. For now, let's build a playoff.

1. Alabama (7-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 26, PP2: 10.14, aPP: 26, SAG: 1, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1. (LW: 4)
2. Michigan (6-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 21, PP2: 8.33, aPP: 21, SAG: 3, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 2. (LW: 1)
3. Clemson (7-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 25, PP2: 8.57, aPP: 25, SAG: 5, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 3. (LW: 3)
4. Texas A&M (6-0, At Large)- NCSS: 1, PP1: 19, PP2: 9.67, aPP: 19, SAG: 7, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 5. (LW: 2)
5. Ohio State (6-0, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 18, PP2: 6.67, aPP: 18, SAG: 2, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 4. (LW: 5)
6. Washington (6-0, Pac-12 "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 14, PP2: 4.50, aPP: 14, SAG: 4, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 6. (LW: 6)
7. Louisville (5-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 15, PP2: 6.40, aPP: 15, SAG: 6, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 9. (LW: 10)
8. Nebraska (6-0, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 15, PP2: 5.17, aPP: 15, SAG: 23, ROTH: 14, AMSTS: 8. (LW: 7)
9. Tennessee (5-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 21, PP2: 9.00, aPP: 21, SAG: 21, ROTH: 10, AMSTS: 12. (LW: 8)
10. West Virginia (5-0, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 12, PP2: 5.00, aPP: 12, SAG: 26, ROTH: 13, AMSTS: 11. (LW: 12)
11. Western Michigan (7-0, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 18, PP2: 5.43, aPP: 18, SAG: 28, ROTH: 15, AMSTS: 7. (LW: 9)
12. Boise State (6-0, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 7, PP1: 16, PP2: 4.83, aPP: 16, SAG: 30, ROTH: 11, AMSTS: 10. (LW: 11)
13. Oklahoma (4-2, Big XII "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 12, PP2: 3.50, aPP: 11, SAG: 9, ROTH: 29, AMSTS: 23. (LW: 14)
14. Troy (5-1, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 11, PP2: 3.60, aPP: 11, SAG: 65, ROTH: 27, AMSTS: 17. (LW: 15)
15. South Florida (6-1, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 12, PP2: 4.00, aPP: 10, SAG: 35, ROTH: 28, AMSTS: 22.(LW: NR)
16. Florida International (3-4, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 4, PP2: 1.00, aPP: -10, SAG: 159, ROTH: 151, AMSTS: 112.(LW: NR)

Out of the playoffs: Navy (13), Middle Tennessee (16)

Photo by Kevin C. Cox (Getty Images)

This one wasn't too terrible to seed out, especially at the top. When you sweep the computer rankings and lead in every Playoff Point category, there's absolutely no reason why you shouldn't be the top overall seed, and so the Crimson Tide jump three spots. Michigan and Clemson are pretty tightly contested; Clemson has more Playoff Points, Michigan has better computer rankings. Given Clemson's extra game to date, I'm giving the Wolverines the nod for the #2 seed and the third home game. Clemson would then be the consensus #3 seed, with a tight battle for the final second guaranteed home game. Texas A&M has the highest Playoff Points of the three, largely thanks to their win over a playoff team, something neither Ohio State nor Washington can boast at this stage.

Photo by Timothy D. Easley (AP)

The Buckeyes are better in every category than Washington, so they get the #5 seed over the Huskies, who the computers really like. We get a little dicey from here on out because there are still a bunch of undefeated teams left, but I come back to one-loss Louisville, whose aforementioned defeat came at the hands of the #3 seed. Their numbers are good enough for the #7 spot, and with Nebraska leading most of the categories among the remaining undefeated teams, they get the final home game in the first round.

Photo by David Dermer (AP)

Three undefeated teams remain eligible at this stage, but complicating matters is two-loss Tennessee. Normally keeping a two-loss team in at this stage of the season as an at large is unthinkable, but given their two losses are to the #1 and #4 seeds, they probably deserve to be here still. Originally I had the Volunteers in the 10 spot, but West Virginia's body of work, though unblemished, isn't quite as impressive as Tennessee's, so they get the #9 spot ahead of the Mountaineers. That leaves a pair of undefeated mid-majors in a tight race for the #11 seed. Western Michigan has the extra game which would tempt me to put Boise State ahead, but Western Michigan has higher Playoff Points and leads two of the three computer rankings, so I'll give them the nod here.

Photo from Big 12 Blog Network (photographer uncredited)

This leaves four other conference "champions", with Oklahoma getting the Big XII's automatic bid because Baylor is banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs. They have solid numbers in their own right despite two losses, numbers which beat out the pair of one-loss conference champions directly behind them. Troy and South Florida are in a tight battle, but Troy's one loss is to the #3 seed and, other than their bizarre Sagarin ranking, they're generally fairly even with South Florida, so I'm giving the Trojans the edge. Finally, Florida International, were it not for the automatic bids, would have absolutely no business in the playoffs as their numbers are absolutely terrible. I've never even put a team with a losing record in, but all three of Golden Panthers' wins have come in Conference USA, and they're the only team in that league that hasn't lost in conference play. I hate doing so, but they've got the qualifications for right now.

Middle Tennessee's loss knocked them out of first in that conference, while Navy was a tougher out; they're good, and tied with South Florida in the conference standings, but the Bulls have a better overall record and the metrics back them over the Midshipmen, so the auto bid there changes hands. Navy is still in the hunt, though they weren't one of the first three teams out. That was a tossup between Florida, Houston, and Memphis. The Gators are probably the first team out (Tennessee's head to head win comes in handy), followed by Houston.

It's still pretty early in the season, with at least a good month and a half of football left to play. This bracket will change a ton between now and the end of the season, though the top seeds are likely to remain locked in place as long as they continue to take care of business.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at NCSS for Week 8!