2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 8 Mock Bracket

The loss of a couple undefeated teams is definitely throwing a monkey wrench into things this week. There are officially nine teams left without a blemish on their records, though one of them is ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs this season.

So there are eight eligible undefeated teams who are going to be making an appearance in today's field, which leaves eight spots for other teams to stake a claim to. Conference champions get an automatic bid, but with the number of unbeatens dropping, we're going to have to decide between teams with losses to fill the field.

This is a continuation of the brainchild of Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan, taking their brilliant creation and trying to apply it to the current season. You can view my first mock of the season for something of a primer on how this works. In a nutshell though, berths and seedings are dependent on Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS), with myself serving as the selection committee using these rankings to help make an educated decision.

1. Alabama (8-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 34, PP2: 13.75, aPP: 34, SAG: 1, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1. (LW: 1)
2. Michigan (7-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 28, PP2: 11.71, aPP: 28, SAG: 2, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 2. (LW: 2)
3. Clemson (7-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 28, PP2: 11.29, aPP: 28, SAG: 4, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 3. (LW: 3)
4. Texas A&M (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 1, PP1: 21, PP2: 11.67, aPP: 21, SAG: 9, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 4. (LW: 4)
5. Ohio State (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 21, PP2: 9.50, aPP: 19, SAG: 3, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 8. (LW: 5)
6. Louisville (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 21, PP2: 7.83, aPP: 21, SAG: 6, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 7. (LW: 7)
7. Washington (7-0, Pac-12 "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 16, PP2: 4.86, aPP: 16, SAG: 5, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 6. (LW: 6)
8. West Virginia (6-0, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 17, PP2: 5.83, aPP: 17, SAG: 15, ROTH: 10, AMSTS: 11. (LW: 10)
9. Nebraska (7-0, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 20, PP2: 6.29, aPP: 20, SAG: 24, ROTH: 19, AMSTS: 10. (LW: 8)
10. Tennessee (5-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 24, PP2: 13.00, aPP: 23, SAG: 21, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 13. (LW: 9)
11. Western Michigan (8-0, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 27, PP2: 8.13, aPP: 27, SAG: 28, ROTH: 14, AMSTS: 5. (LW: 11)
12. Boise State (7-0, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 8, PP1: 25, PP2: 7.71, aPP: 25, SAG: 30, ROTH: 11, AMSTS: 9. (LW: 12)
13. Oklahoma (5-2, Big XII "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 16, PP2: 5.00, aPP: 11, SAG: 9, ROTH: 30, AMSTS: 25. (LW: 13)
14. Troy (6-1, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 15, PP2: 5.17, aPP: 15, SAG: 66, ROTH: 29, AMSTS: 19. (LW: 14)
15. Navy (5-1, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 1, PP1: 17, PP2: 7.80, aPP: 14, SAG: 54, ROTH: 45, AMSTS: 27.(LW: NR)
16. Louisiana Tech (5-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 7, PP1: 11, PP2: 5.20, aPP: 2, SAG: 74, ROTH: 76, AMSTS: 63.(LW: NR)

Out of the playoffs: South Florida (15), Florida International (16)

Photo by Kevin C. Cox (Getty Images)

Most of the seedings ended up staying the same, though Ohio State's loss threw a bit of a monkey wrench into things. Alabama has clearly established itself as the top team in the country by leading in every category, albeit with an extra game over much of the rest of the country because they haven't had a bye yet. Michigan and Clemson are neck and neck for the #2 seed and the third home game, but the Wolverines get the edge thanks to the higher PP2 and computer rankings. That leaves Clemson as the consensus #3 seed with a second home game, but the #4 seed is much trickier. There are still five undefeated teams unseeded, and as much as I hate to keep Western Michigan and Boise State on the road, their conferences just aren't as good. Nebraska and West Virginia are both technically "at large" teams at the moment, so they fall short as well. That leaves Washington and a trio of 6-1 teams. Unfortunately for the Huskies, their numbers just don't quite match up with that trio. That's a tight race, as all have 21 First Degree Playoff Points, but the Second Degree Playoff Points and computers all point to Texas A&M getting the other quarterfinal home game (combined with their 1-1 record against playoff teams).

Photographer uncredited (photo from share-trends.com)

Ohio State also has a 1-1 record against playoff teams thanks to their win at Oklahoma, and even though their loss is to a non-playoff team, it wasn't to a bad team, and it was closer than Louisville's loss to Clemson. The slightly higher PP2 also helps to give them the edge for the #5 seed. Washington falls a spot this week; despite being undefeated and being loved by the computers, they really haven't beaten anyone of significance yet, though that can change this weekend against Utah. Finally, despite one fewer game, West Virginia gets the home game over Nebraska in the first round thanks to better computer rankings.

Photo by Bruce Thorson (USA TODAY Sports)

This forces the Huskers to go out east for their first round matchup, and they get the edge thanks to the undefeated record over our last at large team in Tennessee. They have a very high Playoff Point count in all categories, and the computers are still largely in favor of the Volunteers. That helps them out as we finally get to our last two unbeatens. Western Michigan gets the edge, despite one more game having been played, thanks to taking two of the three computer rankings. Boise State is close behind though, and if it weren't for the bye we could go either way.

Photo by John Weast (Getty Images)

This leaves us with four flawed conference champions. Oklahoma gets the nod at #13 with the second-most PP1 of the remaining teams and the highest computer rankings, as well as one of their losses coming to Ohio State. This, combined with the Big XII having better Playoff Point averages, gives them the edge over Troy. The Trojans have a pretty strong resume, including some surprisingly high computer rankings, which gives them the #14 seed over Navy despite Navy having more Playoff Points with one fewer game played (and Navy's seeding can get complicated with the Army-Navy game looming should the Midshipmen be in the playoff conversation at the end of the season). Finally, our latest Conference USA "Champion" wins the right to get slaughtered by Alabama in Louisiana Tech, who get the mock automatic berth thanks to head to head wins over both Western Kentucky and Florida International. And honestly, I'm glad Florida International gets dropped out of the picture at this point because it would have been crazy to justify a 3-5 team making the playoff.

Photographer uncredited (photo from danegeld.org)

Out of fairness too, I want to outline the teams that I looked at who were first out of the mix. Most of them were one-loss teams: Toledo and San Diego State have decent cases and would get in over the Conference USA champ were it not for the auto bids, but that's about it. South Florida is also still a compelling case, and if they run the table the rest of the way they may be a 10-2 team to keep an eye on. The toughest out by far though was Utah. The Utes are right in the mix in Playoff Points, but their computer rankings fall just a hair short. I was prepared to put them in, but I can't bump them up without knocking out an at large team who deserves it more. They sit right on the precipice, though with the amount of season left they can definitely still sneak in. This is also the part where I want to issue a reminder than Penn State and Baylor are both banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs due to their various sex abuse scandals. I should also issue an advance warning (looking at you, North Carolina fans) that teams who play multiple games against FCS competition, unless it's a last-minute schedule change to fill a cancelled game or something, disqualify teams from the playoffs as well.

That will do it for this week. I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the non-conference slate for Week 9, and I think all my college football posts will be a little delayed this coming week due to homecoming festivities at North Central.