Friday, February 23, 2018

2018 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament Preview

Tonight... the madness begins.

I suppose it has technically already begun; many conference tournaments around Division III are already well underway. But the CCIW, with just four teams surviving beyond the 25 game gauntlet, waits until the weekend to decide its automatic entrant into the NCAA Tournament. Enjoy this; it's the last time the top four are guaranteed entry into this contest.

I've only written about the ones North Central makes, so there's no writeup for the women's tournament being held down in Bloomington this weekend. I do, however, want to take a look at one taking place out west starting tonight.


2018 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament

Carver Center- Augustana College
(Rock Island, IL)

Oh great... this place again. This is the sixth time Augustana has hosted the tournament and the first since 2016. No other school has hosted more than twice (Carthage, Illinois Wesleyan, North Central). This is a facility I have on my bucket list largely because I'd like to get to every CCIW gym at least once. It's been a tough gym for North Central in recent years, with the Cardinals having lost four straight in this building (three to the Vikings plus to Elmhurst in the 2016 CCIW Tournament). The Vikings have had back to back 10-2 campaigns in this gym and the year before went 10-0 in the regular season, earned hosting rights for the CCIW Tournament and first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament, where they went 5-1.

Semifinal #1

(2) Illinois Wesleyan Titans
Record: 19-6 (12-4); 10th tournament appearance (1st since 2016), 0 titles

The Titans appeared to be cruising to hosting rights for the CCIW Tournament for a good chunk of the season... but a loss to Augie hurt their chances a little bit, and dropping their finale to North Central shifted the site. The Titans still boast a strong team with the second best offense in the CCIW (81.4 points per game). They've got a deadly backcourt led by unanimous First Team All-CCIW junior Brady Rose (21.4 PPG, 47/40/83) and Second Team All-CCIW Colin Bonnett (12.4 PPG, 46/44/79). Alex O'Neill came in to fill what appeared to be a preseason void at center (8.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG), and have gotten some nice contributions from guys like Jaylen Beasley (5.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and PA announcer assassin Jason Gregoire (8.2 PPG, 50/40/72). Even though they aren't hosting, this is still a dangerous team that the Cardinals beat on Tuesday, but will have a tough time with trying to beat for the second time in four days.

(3) North Central Cardinals
Record: 18-7 (11-5); 10th tournament apperance (4th consecutive), 4 titles

The defending tournament champions started out a little slow this season with losses at Augie and a heartbreaker at home to Illinois Wesleyan, though they have a couple questionable losses (at Elmhurst, at home versus Carroll), but boast a pair of wins over Wheaton and one over the Titans just the other day. The Cardinals boast the best defense in the conference (68.4 PPG against) and second best field goal defense (.419). The team is down one of its important complementary pieces in Erwin Henry, who has missed the last six games and won't return for the rest of the season, but other guys have picked up the slack. Alex Sorenson continues to do Alex Sorenson things (18.9 PPG, conference-best 9.0 RPG) en route to being a unanimous First Team All-CCIW player. He's joined on the All-CCIW First Team by Connor Raridon (12.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, conference-best 6.9 APG), and it's primarily these two who makes the Cardinals go. They get some additional scoring from Matt Cappelletti (9.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 50/41/79) and long range shooting from Mike Pollack (11.0 PPG, 48/47/89) and lockdown defense from Aiden Chang though he can also score when called upon (6.6 PPG, 36/35/83, scored 20 points at Wheaton this past Saturday while holding Aston Francis to 5-24 shooting). Depth took a hit when Henry went down, so they'll need contributions from Blaise Meredith and Tommy Koth as well this weekend.

Semifinal #2

(1) Augustana Vikings
Record: 20-5 (12-4); 13th tournament appearance (13th consecutive), 5 titles

Say what you will about the inspiration for the Jacket Watch, but Grey Giovanine is a hell of a basketball coach. He's led his team to every CCIW Tournament, something no other coach can claim. The Vikings were a preseason favorite after coming within a blocked layup of a national championship last season and pretty much lived up to the hype. Chrishawn Orange continues to be one of the most underrated guys in the league despite his being on the All-CCIW First Team (15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 49/45/71) along with Nolan Ebel (15.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, 50/47/77) while Dylan Sortillo (12.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 43/42/77) made the Second Team. This team is hurt by injuries though, with Pierson Wofford missing basically the entire campaign after blowing out his knee in a game against the University of Illinois, and Micah Martin (7.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) has missed the last two games and will be out for the the rest of the year. Fortunately for the Vikings, Grey Giovanine hoards bigs and guys like Brett Benning (9.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) can help fill the gap, as can Carson Frakes and A.J. Dollmeyer, which still makes this Viking team a tough out.

(4) Wheaton Thunder
Record: 17-8 (10-6); 9th tournament apperance (1st since 2014), 1 title

After a few down years, the Thunder find themselves back in the CCIW Tournament largely on the back of Fred Young Most Outstanding Player winner Aston Francis (27.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.5 APG, 41/37/82, hits ridiculous fallaway 28 footers) but he's far from the only weapon. He's backed up by the most lethal three point shooter in the conference in Second Team All-CCIW player Ricky Samuelson (16.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 53/51/89) and has gotten a lot of help from Kobe Eichelberger (12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 54/37/61). But they're going to need a lot of help down low where the focus will be on if Jay Spencer (5.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG), Luke Peters (6.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Spencer Peterson (5.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 45/24/73) can limit the Augie bigs while chipping in offensively where they can (and in the case of Spencer Peterson, as long as he's not taking threes). Francis can go off at any time though, so if he can get his while getting teammates involved and not being a complete defensive liability, the Thunder will be a very tough out.

Tournament Predictions

A week ago, I was really worried about the Cardinals; they were locked into a CCIW Tournament berth but had just blown a 21 point lead to Carroll and looked very vulnerable. They followed that up with arguably their two best performances of the season at Wheaton and at Illinois Wesleyan. It's hard to beat a team twice in four days, but this Cardinal team did a great job limiting Brady Rose on Tuesday. Defense travels; I fully believe they can beat the Titans a second time and make another conference title game. In the other semi, I fully believe Aston Francis will get his and will give Augie hell, but I think the Vikings advance as well. Then in the title game, a contest North Central has never lost, I think they finally get revenge for the two prior meetings which the Cardinals have refused to go away in and finally push past to grab their second straight title and punch a ticket back to the Big Dance.

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