Monday, October 9, 2017

2017 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 6

Saturday saw a lot of chaos in college football, which I love. It means that the order of things gets thrown out of wack, and forces everyone to look differently at the playoff picture.

I'm not quite there yet, because after last week, there were still too many undefeated teams to build out a mock playoff bracket. That may change after today, but I need to run the numbers to be sure.

Below I will run through the average win totals for each conference, plus the independents collected as their own "conference" for the purposes of these rankings. I will also update the Playoff Point totals and give each conference average for those as well. A primer on how exactly these metrics work can be found here.

American Athletic
Wins: 3.08 (5th)
PP1: 5.33 (5th)
PP2: 1.77 (6th)
aPP: 3.00 (5th)

ACC
Wins: 3.43 (T-3rd)
PP1: 6.79 (4th)
PP2: 2.74 (4th)
aPP: 4.21 (4th)

Big Ten
Wins: 3.43 (T-3rd)
PP1: 7.93 (1st)
PP2: 3.44 (1st)
aPP: 5.71 (1st)

Big XII
Wins: 3.00 (T-6th)
PP1: 5.20 (6th)
PP2: 2.12 (5th)
aPP: 1.80 (6th)

Conference USA
Wins: 2.43 (11th)
PP1: 2.93 (10th)
PP2: 1.02 (9th)
aPP: -3.36 (10th)

Independents
Wins: 2.50 (10th)
PP1: 4.00 (7th)
PP2: 1.50 (7th)
aPP: -3.25 (9th)

MAC
Wins: 2.67 (T-8th)
PP1: 3.25 (9th)
PP2: 1.42 (8th)
aPP: -2.92 (8th)

Mountain West
Wins: 2.67 (T-8th)
PP1: 3.33 (8th)
PP2: 0.82 (10th)
aPP: -1.83 (7th)

Pac-12
Wins: 3.67 (1st)
PP1: 7.50 (3rd)
PP2: 3.02 (2nd)
aPP: 5.33 (2nd)

SEC
Wins: 3.64 (2nd)
PP1: 7.57 (2nd)
PP2: 3.00 (3rd)
aPP: 5.29 (3rd)

Sun Belt
Wins: 3.00 (T-6th)
PP1: 1.92 (11th)
PP2: 0.53 (11th)
aPP: -4.50 (11th)

To see the updated spreadsheet, click here.

Photo from UBBulls.com
I think for me the most interesting thing for me was to see the Big Ten tied for third in average wins, but in first place in every other category, and it's not really that close. The Pac 12 leads in wins and comes in second in every other category, with the SEC right behind them in every metric, except PP1, which they hold a narrow lead in. We're also seeing the same disparity in Adjusted Playoff Points that we did last year: the Power Conferences, collectively, are well above the zero mark, with pretty much every Group of Five conference fairly well below the mark except the American Athletic, which has done well for itself, and the independents are getting dragged down by BYU being bad and Massachusetts being abysmal.

Photo by Ian Maule (AP)
By my count, 22 teams have made their way to double digit First Degree Playoff Points. Clemson leads the way with 21, followed by Georgia and Alabama with 17 apiece, then Penn State with 16, and USC rounds out the top five with 15 points. Florida State is our Second Degree Playoff Point leader with an eight point average, but that's easy to do with just one win. A pair of our undefeateds, Washington State and Clemson, are fifth and sixth at 5.67 and 5.50 point averages, respectively. Georgia isn't far behind at 5.17,a nd USC is at 5.40 points. Michigan State ranks second overall with a 7.25 point average. Adjusted Playoff Points follow the same top five and scores as PP1. By my count, 0-6 UTEP is the worst in this category at -16 points.

I ran the numbers. We have 13 undefeated teams (though one is ineligible) spread across seven conferences. Given that we need ten automatic bids, the numbers work out well enough that we can begin to build mock brackets! I'll pore through the numbers today, and be back this afternoon with our first mock of the season!

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