2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 8 Mock Bracket

We're still a little over a month away from Championship Saturday, which means I can't fully prepare an actual playoff bracket quite yet. But it's good to get the practice in, and in an alternate universe where this is the actual playoff format, it's good practice for the selection committee. And so, I undertake my third mock of the season.

This is a playoff system outlined in the book pictured to the left, written a few years back by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. The premise of the book is simple: the old BCS system of deciding a national champion was elitist, possibly illegal, and patently unfair. So they came up with a fairer one that enhances the regular season: 16 teams, made up of the 10 conference champions (11 when the book was written), with the rest of the field filled by at large selections. They play with home field advantage for the first three rounds, making the season really mean something, and meaning that my seeding of this tournament needs to be perfect.

To help decide the at large teams and seed the field, I look over scores and try to watch games if I can, but because I can't watch every game, I use several metrics to help me out. To a minor degree I check a team's non conference schedule in the form of Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS). At the end of the day though, I'm more concerned about results, which is why hopefully you read today's Playoff Points rankings, where I look at First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively). That's basically a look at win totals of defeated opponents in a few different ways. You can view a full outline of how that metric works in my season introductory post. Then, to ensure that I eliminate any possible bias I may have, I also check three different computer rankings that factor in margin of victory: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), the late David Rothman's via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors are all kind of organically combined to build out a bracket, which you can view the newest mock of after the jump.

1. Alabama (8-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 29, PP2: 8.00, aPP: 29; SAG: 1, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 1 (LW: 1)
2. Georgia (7-0, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 24, PP2: 8.29, aPP: 24; SAG: 5, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 3 (LW: 2)
3. TCU (7-0, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 22, PP2: 5.57 aPP: 22; SAG: 12, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 5 (LW: 3)
4. Clemson (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 27, PP2: 11.50, aPP: 24; SAG: 6, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 9 (LW: 4)
5. Notre Dame (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 15, PP1: 23, PP2: 12.50, aPP: 23; SAG: 4, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 6 (LW: NR)
6. Wisconsin (7-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 22, PP2: 7.14, aPP: 22; SAG: 8, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 7 (LW: 5)
7. UCF (6-0, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 22, PP2: 8.67, aPP: 22; SAG: 15, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 4 (LW: 8)
8. Ohio State (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 20, PP2: 6.33, aPP: 19; SAG: 2, ROTH: 13, AMSTS: 10 (LW: 7)
9. Miami (Florida) (6-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 0, PP1: 20, PP2: 7.83, aPP: 20; SAG: 16, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 8 (LW: 10)
10. NC State (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 20, PP2: 7.83 aPP: 18; SAG: 19, ROTH: 18, AMSTS: 15 (LW: 11)
11. Washington State (7-1, Pac 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 1, PP1: 21, PP2: 9.00, aPP: 17; SAG: 23, ROTH: 21, AMSTS: 19 (LW: NR)
12. South Florida (7-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 13, PP2: 3.57, aPP: 13; SAG: 31, ROTH: 25, AMSTS: 18 (LW: 12)
13. Toledo (6-1, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 13, PP2: 5.17, aPP: 13; SAG: 51, ROTH: 47, AMSTS: 25 (LW: NR)
14. Marshall (6-1, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 7, PP1: 13, PP2: 4.50, aPP: 12; SAG: 63, ROTH: 57, AMSTS: 35 (LW: NR)
15. Colorado State (6-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 12, PP2: 2.33, aPP: 8; SAG: 60, ROTH: 74, AMSTS: 47 (LW: 14)
16. Appalachian State (5-2, Sun Belt "Champion")-  NCSS: 4, PP1: 7, PP2: 1.40, aPP: 5; SAG: 86, ROTH: 82, AMSTS: 61 (LW: 15)

Out of the playoffs: USC (6), Washington (9), North Texas (13), Akron (16)

Photo by Joe Robbins (Getty Images)

After replacing five teams last week, this week I replace four. Three of them were conference champions, representing the Pac 12, Conference USA, and MAC, with one at large team getting bounced. Washington was that at large team, and that mainly happened because USC was the "champion" in last week's rankings, but at two losses, I couldn't justify them getting the auto bid even though they're still tied with Washington State for the Pac 12 lead. That said, looking at the numbers, Notre Dame, who last week was either the first or second team out is easily in after beating USC. Pretty much the entire rest of the field was a given.

Photo by Katie McMekin (Knoxville News Sentinel)

I'm curious about the Rothman formula, because I'm not sure how four teams are ahead of Alabama in his rankings. They're tops in everything else though, so at the moment they are clearly in the driver's seat for the top overall seed. Georgia has the #2 seed on lockdown at the moment, though one of these two teams will probably end up dropping after the SEC title game. TCU, as an unbeaten major, slots in at #3 without much of an argument, but the #4 spot is tricky. You could go with unbeaten Wisconsin as the Big Ten "champion," or with either Clemson or Notre Dame. But the Tigers have the best Playoff Points figures out of the three, and that to me is enough to edge out the better computer numbers for Notre Dame.

Photo by Jose Luis Magana (AP)

The Irish will have to settle, at least for now, with the #5 seed. They lead the country in Second Degree Playoff Points and the computers love them. If they run the table the rest of the way, you can all but guarantee they'll move into the top four. Wisconsin slots in right after them, an unbeaten record not quite as impressive as the resumes of the teams ahead of them. Central Florida got a big win over Navy this past week to flip them just ahead of Ohio State, who despite one loss gets the nod for the last first round home game.

Miami will have to head to Columbus in round one of this mock after taking hold of the ACC "championship" from NC State after catching up to the Wolfpack's conference record with their bye. NC State's having a loss combined with the computers liking the Hurricanes more means NC State drops to #10 as our final at large team. The last major "champion" is Washington State, who was just on the outside last week, and slots in as being the only team tied for the conference lead with just one loss on the year. Their Playoff Points numbers also beat Washington's, which is part of the reason the Huskies are out this time. That just leaves the Group of Five champions, with South Florida getting the #12 seed as the last unbeaten in the field.

Photo by Jasen Vinlove (USA TODAY Sports)

It's then a battle of teams with one or two losses for the final four spots. Toledo out of the MAC and Marshall out of Conference USA are both 6-1, but Toledo gets the nod due to slightly higher Playoff Points scores and significantly higher computer rankings. That puts Marshall clearly at #14 over the pair of two loss champions. Colorado State gets the nod over Appalachian State due to the extra win, but also thanks to being better by all of my measurements.

If we look at teams on the outside looking in, Michigan State, who hasn't really gotten any love yet this season, is probably the first team out. USC will stay in the mix, but with two losses it'll be tough to steal back an at large berth. Washington will certainly stay in consideration as well, but the dark horse here might be Memphis. The Tigers are 6-1, with their lone loss to an unbeaten UCF team and wins over a good Navy team and decent UCLA team. Sagarin might hold them back a little bit, but if they make the American Athletic title game they may have a shot.

Cartoon by Rob Tornoe (Philly Enquirer)

Now it's time for the weekly reminder of something important, primarily for those of you who are new to Confessions of a Sportscaster or the Death to the BCS Playoffs. If you're one of these people, you're looking at the field and noting a glaring absence. In a vacuum, Wisconsin would end up pushing out NC State with an at large bid and Penn State would be the #2 seed and receive the Big Ten auto bid. But this isn't a vacuum, and Penn State is a cult that put the football program ahead of the safety of children. Because the program and school aided and abetted a child molester for years, they are permanently banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs (important note: though the system Wetzel, Peter, and Passan put into place didn't specify anything about that, this is my executive decision because the NCAA is filled with spineless cowards too afraid of backlash and loss of revenue to do the right thing). If you're a Penn State fan who doesn't like that, it's your fault for being part of a cult that only cares about football and as such deserved the death penalty. If it makes you feel any better, they aren't the only permanently banned team: Baylor is also due to their institutional coverup of sexual assault. The difference here is, Baylor is awful and Penn State is good. If the roles were reversed, I'd be chastising Baylor instead of Penn State... though I'd probably still chastise Penn State for being a cult.

But enough of being on my soapbox. That's this week's mock. Assuming I've counted weeks on the schedule correctly, I should have five more of these left to go before I have to do the real thing following Championship Saturday when the auto bids get decided. In the meantime, I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the Week 9 schedule as it pertains to non-conference games.