2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 7 Mock Bracket

Last week I had just enough room in my first mock bracket of the season to squeeze in every eligible unbeaten team. And then, go figure, a bunch of them fell like flies.

This complicates the Death to the BCS Playoff picture, even though we still have a good month and a half of season left to play. Teams will separate from the pack a little bit more, and hopefully things will become easier, but in the meantime, I need the practice for bracket building.

So here's a refresher on how this works. The ten conference champions, along with six at large selections, will be seeded 1-16, with higher seeds getting home field advantage for three rounds. To pick out the at large teams and seed the field, I use several of my own metrics, focusing a little on Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) and more so on First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively) to help. Then, to help reduce bias, I use computer rankings that factor in margin of victory created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all get kind of organically combined to build the field. The Rothman rankings are up this week, so unlike last week, all three computer rankings will be under consideration.

So without further ado, let's make a mock bracket.

1. Alabama (7-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 24, PP2: 6.86, aPP: 24; SAG: 1, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 1 (LW: 2)
2. Georgia (7-0, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 20, PP2: 5.43, aPP: 20; SAG: 5, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 2 (LW: 3)
3. TCU (6-0, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 18, PP2: 4.67 aPP: 18; SAG: 12, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 4 (LW: 6)
4. Clemson (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 23, PP2: 7.83, aPP: 20; SAG: 4, ROTH: 10, AMSTS: 9 (LW: 1)
5. Wisconsin (6-0, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 16, PP2: 4.67, aPP: 16; SAG: 8, ROTH: 12, AMSTS: 6 (LW: 7)
6. USC (6-1, Pac 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 21, PP2: 7.67, aPP: 20; SAG: 16, ROTH: 14, AMSTS: 11 (LW: 8)
7. Ohio State (6-1, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 18, PP2: 4.83, aPP: 17; SAG: 2, ROTH: 13, AMSTS: 7 (LW: NR)
8. UCF (5-0, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 15, PP2: 5.40, aPP: 15; SAG: 19, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 5 (LW: 9)
9. Washington (6-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 15, PP2: 4.00, aPP: 12; SAG: 7, ROTH: 22, AMSTS: 14 (LW: 5)
10. Miami (Florida) (5-0, At Large)- NCSS: 0, PP1: 14, PP2: 4.60, aPP: 14; SAG: 15, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 8 (LW: 11)
11. NC State (6-1, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 17, PP2: 5.67 aPP: 15; SAG: 20, ROTH: 21, AMSTS: 16 (LW: NR)
12. South Florida (6-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 9, PP2: 1.83, aPP: 9; SAG: 31, ROTH: 33, AMSTS: 23 (LW: 13)
13. North Texas (4-2, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 11, PP2: 3.50, aPP: 7; SAG: 102, ROTH: 79, AMSTS: 43 (LW: 15)
14. Colorado State (5-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 8, PP2: 1.20, aPP: 5; SAG: 59, ROTH: 83, AMSTS: 58 (LW: NR)
15. Appalachian State (4-2, Sun Belt "Champion")-  NCSS: 4, PP1: 6, PP2: 1.25, aPP: 4; SAG: 75, ROTH: 70, AMSTS: 56 (LW: NR)
16. Akron (4-3, MAC "Champion)- NCSS: 6, PP1: 7, PP2: 3.25, aPP: 3; SAG: 106, ROTH: 92, AMSTS: 84 (LW: NR)

Out of the playoffs: Washington State (4), San Diego State (10), Navy (12), Western Michigan (14), Louisiana-Monroe (16)

I want to note, first and foremost, how I define the conference "champion" at this stage. In the final tournament, the winner of the conference championship game gets the automatic bid, or in the case of the Sun Belt, the team with the best record in the conference, though tiebreakers may come into play. Right now those matchups aren't decided, so I go by the best in-conference record. That's why we have some teams with better overall records or better numbers leading to higher seeds being at larges, with the auto bid going further down.

Photo by Brett Carlsen (Getty Images)

With Clemson's loss to Syracuse on Friday though, the top of the food chain was obvious: Alabama is far and away the best team by pretty much every metric (except the Rothman ranking for some reason). Georgia is right there with them, and as the only other 7-0 team, they're the obvious #2 for the time being. TCU jumped a few spots to #3 by being undefeated, having solid Playoff Point numbers, and getting some computer love. Clemson, despite the loss, only slides down to #4 and is our second at large selection. They still have excellent numbers, and with our current ACC "champion" still on the slate, they can work their way back to the auto bid. They still, along with TCU, get a guaranteed second home playoff game in this mock, while Alabama and Georgia don't have to leave their campuses until the title game.

Photo by Dylan Buell (Getty Images)

Next we have our first weird conference "champion" situation. Wisconsin is undefeated on the year, but has only played three conference games, while Ohio State is 4-0 in Big Ten play. You'd have an argument for the Buckeyes moving into the #5 spot, but the fact that Wisconsin is unbeaten gives them the edge for right now. The Buckeyes also have to wait behind USC, who was my only blemished at large team last week. The Trojans vault into the auto bid with both Washington schools losing over the weekend, and their higher playoff point scores give them the edge over Ohio State. Rounding out our first round hosts is Central Florida, which is a bit of a surprise; I was shocked they got as much computer love as they did, but they've no Playoff Point slouches either, which gets them the #8 seed.

Photo by Ross D. Franklin (AP)

The Knights get to host Washington in round one of this mock. The Huskies were the last team in when you consider Miami was automatically in as an unbeaten, edging out Washington State by virtue of common opponent (Washington beat Cal, who just beat Washington State). The Hurricanes follow Washington immediately at #10. Their NCSS looks bad, but weather plays a major role in it being zero, and also kind of why their Playoff Points seem low. It's still enough to get them over NC State, who gets the auto bid out of the ACC, with the computers being the deciding factor. That just leaves the Group of Five champions, led by South Florida out of the American Athletic. They haven't beat anyone of significance yet this season, which is why they end up at #12 instead of higher, where you'd expect an unbeaten.

Photo from UTSA Athletic Department (photographer uncredited)

Then, as usual, we round out the bottom of the bracket and the meat for the top four seeds with Group of Five champions with losses. North Texas had the best Playoff Points scores and, other than the Sagarin ranking, is in good shape with the computers. Colorado State grabs control of the Mountain West after San Diego State got beat and just edges out our new Sun Belt leader in Appalachian State. Finally, after beating Western Michigan yesterday, Akron grabs the lead in the MAC, but with three losses, low Playoff Points scores, and bad computer rankings, gets rewarded with a mock trip to Tuscaloosa to open the playoffs.

Washington State was arguably the first team out of the mix, but there were a few other teams that got a little consideration. Notre Dame is right in the thick of things, and with a game against USC coming up, a win could push them into the picture. Both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are 5-1 and in the mix, but neither one has very good Playoff Point scores to push them in as at larges at this point. Michigan State is also in the thick of the hunt. As early as it still is, these teams all have shots to sneak into the bracket. Or, we could see someone who had some early losses that I'm not even thinking of that run the table late and steal a berth at the end. We'll have to see.

This is the point again where I want to make sure that people understand, because I'm sure if you're a new COAS reader and don't see Penn State there, you think I forgot them. I did not. They are permanently banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs for being a cult that placed football over the welfare of children. I don't care if they go 13-0, they will never see a Death to the BCS Playoff. If you're a cultist reading this and thinking, "That's okay, we'll go win a real national championship and show you, keyboard warrior. JoePa was framed!" fine, think that. It doesn't change the fact that you follow a cult that should have gotten the death penalty but didn't because the NCAA is spineless. But take solace in the fact that you're not alone; Baylor is permanently banned for a similar reason. They're just terrible and not in a position to be good enough to make this simulated tournament.

I'm going to get off my soapbox now. Tomorrow I'll be back with a look at the Week 8 schedule.