2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Mock Bracket

I think this past weekend was the sort of weekend Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan had in mind when they penned the masterpiece you see to your left. There was a ton of chaos, and so many games with playoff impact were played that invoked said chaos. It's further proof that the playoff system they envisioned enhanced the regular season rather than dilute it.

If you haven't read this book, I highly recommend it. But their basic premise for an ideal playoff is this: 16 teams, with each conference getting an automatic bid for its champion, and the field being filled by deserving at large squads. I love the premise, and as such have tried to fill a bracket with their methodology for the last few years. Here's the best part about it though: higher seeds host for the first three rounds, so we're playing games in iconic stadiums on campus in front of partisan crowds instead of neutral site stadiums that may end up half empty. As such, the regular season really matters, because the difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed is a second home game.

The tricky part comes in how to fill the field, and then how to seed it. To do that, I use a number of metrics. I begin with a glance at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which is a rough look at how tough of a non-conference slate teams are playing (basically, are they playing road games against Power Five opponents or a bunch of home games against Group of Five teams or FCS opponents). At the end of the day though, results matter. That's where First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjust Playoff Points (aPP) come in: they go beyond just a won-lost record and figure out how good the teams they beat truly are. Finally, to help reduce bias on my part and to give additional data points, I consult computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), a UCLA staff member using the late David Rothman's formula (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all kind of organically combine to build the playoff field.

I'm at the point now where I do a mock bracket every week, at least once I can build it without screwing any undefeated teams out of a spot. With a number of them falling this past week, it may create some at large headaches, but we'll see how it goes!

1. Georgia (8-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 30, PP2: 11.75, aPP: 30; SAG: 4, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1 (LW: 2)
2. Alabama (8-0, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 30, PP2: 9.13, aPP: 30; SAG: 1, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 2 (LW: 1)
3. Notre Dame (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 17, PP1: 31, PP2: 15.43, aPP: 31; SAG: 5, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 4 (LW: 5)
4. Ohio State (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 30, PP2: 12.00, aPP: 29; SAG: 2, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 5 (LW: 8)
5. Clemson (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 34, PP2: 13.71, aPP: 30; SAG: 6, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 8 (LW: 4)
6. Wisconsin (8-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 29, PP2: 10.38, aPP: 29; SAG: 11, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 7 (LW: 6)
7. UCF (7-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 25, PP2: 9.86, aPP: 25; SAG: 15, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 3 (LW: 7)
8. TCU (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 26, PP2: 7.71 aPP: 24; SAG: 13, ROTH: 10, AMSTS: 10 (LW: 3)
9. Miami (Florida) (7-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 0, PP1: 22, PP2: 8.29, aPP: 22; SAG: 18, ROTH: 12, AMSTS: 9 (LW: 9)
10. USC (7-2, Pac 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 28, PP2: 11.29, aPP: 25; SAG: 16, ROTH: 18, AMSTS: 17 (LW: NR)
11. Iowa State (6-2, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 24, PP2: 11.50 aPP: 17; SAG: 19, ROTH: 15, AMSTS: 18 (LW: NR)
12. Oklahoma (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 22, PP2: 8.71, aPP: 20; SAG: 9, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 11 (LW: NR)
13. Boise State (6-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 8, PP1: 27, PP2: 11.50, aPP: 22; SAG: 33, ROTH: 44, AMSTS: 28 (LW: NR)
14. Toledo (7-1, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 16, PP2: 5.71, aPP: 16; SAG: 44, ROTH: 40, AMSTS: 23 (LW: 13)
15. Florida Atlantic (5-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 15, PP2: 6.80, aPP: 8; SAG: 71, ROTH: 69, AMSTS: 43 (LW: NR)
16. Arkansas State (5-2, Sun Belt "Champion")-  NCSS: 6, PP1: 7, PP2: 2.00, aPP: 1; SAG: 74, ROTH: 91, AMSTS: 57 (LW: NR)

Out of the playoffs: NC State (10), Washington State (11), South Florida (12), Marshall (14), Colorado State (15), Appalachian State (16)

Photo by Matt Cashore (USA TODAY Sports)

The first few mocks have had a lot of bloodletting going on, but this one saw a ton of it. Six teams dropping out is a season high so far (though in prior weeks, we've had four and five). Five of the six were automatic bid placeholders who had to drop out, while NC State was an at large that suffered its second loss. Being a two loss team isn't a death knell in and of itself, but it makes you an easier cut. Five of our six at large teams have one loss, the other has none.

Photo by Frederick Breedon (Getty Images)

I ended up making a switch at the very top of the bracket this week. Alabama was off, which allowed Georgia to play catchup. Their PP1's and aPP's are identical, but Georgia has a higher PP2 and two of the three computer rankings have them at number one. The need for a switch was obvious. In the grand scheme of things, the difference between #1 and #2 isn't major; both teams still get three home games, but the path for the #2 seed is a little harder at least based on seeding. Right below them, Notre Dame jumped Clemson to get to #3. The lone Irish loss was to our top team, and they have the highest aPP of all eligible teams, as well as better computer rankings than Ohio State. Originally, I had Clemson slotting in at #4, but the computers like Ohio State better, and the difference in Playoff Points isn't big enough (combined with the fact that Clemson hasn't played a playoff team, while Ohio State lost to the only playoff team they've faced and has a better win). The Buckeyes get the second home game.

Photo by Willie J. Allen, Jr. (AP)

I feel bad bumping Clemson down a spot, but they've got a decent schedule coming up and do have the opportunity to jump back up into that top four. Instead they'll have to settle for a first round home game and going on the road the second weekend. Things drop off a little bit after that, but not a lot as unbeaten Wisconsin and temporary auto bid holder from the Big Ten comes in at #6. The Badgers have a win over a playoff team, something Clemson lacks, but it's a lower seeded playoff team. It's close, but I can't justify dropping Clemson two spots. Central Florida also stands pat, and as one of our last remaining unbeatens, they've earned a home playoff game. They have better numbers now than our final host team in the first round: TCU, who drops five spots after losing to Iowa State. The Horned Frogs still boast a couple top ten computer rankings, and their Playoff Points numbers are favorable. Their drop isn't a playoff killer.

Photo by Rodney White (Des Moines Register)

This does leave me with a bit of a conundrum, however. Undefeated Miami would have to go to Fort Worth for the first round of the playoffs, but TCU's numbers are flat out better than Miami's (though some of that is no fault of the Hurricanes, given their early season cancellation against Arkansas State due to the weather). Their undefeated record nonetheless slots them in ahead of USC, who returns after a one week hiatus with control of the Pac 12 following Washington State's loss. USC is actually tied with Stanford atop the conference but gets the nod thanks to the head to head win. Their numbers are extremely strong overall and gives them an intriguing Round One matchup at UCF. Iowa State slots in at #11, making their first ever appearance in a Death to the BCS mock bracket after causing all sorts of chaos in the Big 12. There's actually a four way tie atop the conference, but Iowa State holds the tiebreaker with a 2-0 record against teams in the tie, and their numbers are actually pretty favorable. They get the head to head victory nod over our #12 seed and final at large berth in Oklahoma. The Sooners have been on the outside looking in for weeks, but their numbers are the best out of the remaining one loss at large candidates. The fact that they beat Ohio State in Week 2 also has to count for something.

Photo by Chris Nicoll (USA TODAY Sports)

That leaves our remaining conference champions rounding out the rest of the field. Boise State makes a leap in to grab the Mountain West lead. Their best win is over San Diego State, which is a good win, but don't have a ton else to write home about, so they slot in at #13. Their numbers are better than Toledo's though, which drops the Rockets down a spot to #14. The last two spots go to newcomers. Florida Atlantic makes an appearance with control of Conference USA as the only team without a league loss to this point. Despite a third loss on their resume, they are better than 5-2 Arkansas State, our Sun Belt leader who took the title away from Appalachian State not because the Mountaineers lost a league game but because they lost to a bad Massachusetts team, and the metrics favor the Red Wolves. That said, the Red Wolves are still easily the worst team in the field.

As I mentioned earlier, NC State got the boot as an at large, but they weren't the first team out. Washington and Washington State both got some strong consideration for that last at large berth, but Washington State also has two losses, and Washington's resume isn't as good as Washington State's despite one fewer loss. Memphis also got a look, and they were also right in the thick of it, but they lack the signature win Oklahoma has. Oklahoma State also got some outside consideration.

That's it for another tumultuous week of college football. Part of me hopes that next week will be a lot cleaner and I won't have to swap as many teams in and out of the bracket. But at the same time I hope there is chaos, because chaos is fun and it presents an interesting challenge. Tomorrow I'll have a look at the Week 10 schedule, then next Monday I'll return with a look at Playoff Points and have another mock bracket!