It was a pretty busy summer for baseball here on COAS, as I spent the spring and summer working on a much more massive Tournament of Champions than I'd attempted in years prior, but it all worked out in the end when after 1,422 games the 2016 Chicago Cubs took home the Championship of Champions. I'm also hoping that the 2017 Cubs can pull off a repeat and give me a bonus title on top of the one from last year.
But before they can do that, and before any playoff games taint the sample, I want to go through the 2017 Major League Baseball season and, as I have done in years past, make my votes for the four most major awards in each league.
Manager of the Year
American League
| Photo by Ron Schwane (Getty Images) |
102-60 (1st in AL Central), 2 wins above COAS Prediction
This was kind of a hard one. You could make an argument for A.J. Hinch of the Astros, who led his team to a super hot start and led a relatively young group to within a game of the Indians for the best record in the American League. It would also be my way of atoning for being the idiot who picked the Astros third in the AL West. Cleveland was expected to be this good, but for me the thing that gives Francona the nod has to be the 22 game win streak the Indians embarked on late in the year. It's the longest winning streak in Major League history unless you count the 1916 New York Giants' 27 game unbeaten streak. It's hard enough to even win 10 games in a row; 22 is insane. That pushes Francona over the top for me. Paul Molitor should also get some down-ballot votes for being the first manager to lead a team from 100-plus losses to a playoff berth in one year.
National League
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| Photo by Dustin Bradford (Getty Images) |
87-75 (3rd in NL West), 7 wins above COAS Prediction
I had them placed right in the division, and wasn't terribly far off in terms of wins, but I didn't expect them to contend for a wild card; they did. This is a team that hasn't been very good for the last few years, but in his first year at the helm, Black led the Rockies to a postseason berth, and that has to count for something. You could make an identical argument for Torey Lovullo of the Diamondbacks for piloting them to the first wild card, or an argument for Dave Roberts for leading his team to a ridiculous start before they fell off a cliff a little bit. I think being a new guy has to count for something, and so to me it's a coin flip between Black and Lovullo, with Black getting the nod for me.
Rookie of the Year
American League
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| Photo from Getty Images (Photographer uncredited) |
155 G, .284/.422/.627, 52 HR, 24 2B, 3 3B, 114 RBI, 128 R, 9 SB.
Now, before you yell at me about how Judge struck out a crap ton of times (true), he also led the American League in walks and finished second in OBP and slugging, in both cases to Mike Trout. His 52 home runs led the American League by a significant margin, and he finished third in total bases behind Jose Abreu and Jose Ramirez. Judge had that second half slump, but adjusted and finished with this excellent line. He's the Rookie of the Year, and it's not close. All rise.
National League
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| Photo by Harry How (Getty Images) |
132 G, .267/.352/.581, 39 HR, 26 2B, 4 3B, 97 RBI, 87 R, 10 SB.
This was a little bit harder of a choice. Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies, over a 50 game sample size, had slightly better numbers, but Bellinger was up for most of the year and never really wavered. He finished just outside the top ten in OPS in the entire National League, sixth in slugging, and second in home runs behind Giancarlo Stanton. His strikeout rate is a little high, but he still got on base at a good clip, and had the value of playing multiple positions. I think the voters will probably go this way as well.
Cy Young Award
American League
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| Photo by Ron Schwane (AP) |
29 G (29 starts), 18-4, 2.25 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 203.2 IP, 36 BB, 265 K, .193 BAA,.556 OPSa.
It's a two horse race between Kluber and Chris Sale of the Red Sox, but it's not a particularly close race. Sale's main edge comes from strikeouts, and he became the first pitcher to top 300 in a season since Pedro Martinez in 1999, but he did it in 11 more innings and three more starts. That means Kluber got more mileage per outing, but while his strikeout rate wasn't as high, he beat out Sale in every other category. If Sale had more complete games and shutouts, it would be closer, but Kluber had three shutouts and two more complete games on top of that; Sale only went the distance once. Kluber gets his second.
National League
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| Photo from Getty Images (Photographer uncredited) |
31 G (31 starts), 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 200.2 IP, 55 BB, 268 K, .178 BAA, .556 OPSa.
This was another two horse race pretty much, and part of me wonders if Kershaw would have won if he hadn't missed any time again. Kershaw still put up the best ERA among qualifiers, but Scherzer allowed 10 fewer hits in 25 more innings. That's insane. It gave him that ridiculous batting average against and OPS against that beat out Kershaw by a fairly significant margin, he also had a slightly better WHIP, and his ERA was only two tenths of a run behind Kershaw. Factor in the better strikeout rate, and it's pretty clear this year's race goes to Scherzer, though Kershaw isn't as far behind as maybe this last paragraph makes it out to be.
Most Valuable Player
American League
| Photo by Eric Christian Smith (AP) |
153 G, .346/.410/.547, 24 HR, 39 2B, 4 3B, 81 RBI, 112 R, 32 SB.
This was a pretty tough race, but I think we can narrow it down to three or four major players: Altuve, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Jose Ramirez of the Indians. Ultimately I think Ramirez is at the bottom of this list partially due to his team, but also factoring in that his numbers aren't as good as the top three. Judge has to get some consideration as well, which is pretty good for a rookie. And then of course, there's Trout, who might get dinged a little bit between missing some time this season as well as missing the playoffs yet again despite walking more than striking out and still putting up some pretty ridiculous numbers. The playoff thing's not a disqualifier, but I feel like you should lead your team to the playoffs, and if you don't, you needed to be far and away the best player in your league, and statistically, he wasn't (though again, injury may have played a role in this). Ultimately I went to a couple tiebreakers: Wins Above Replacement, which according to Baseball Reference leans towards Altuve, and MLB.com's Late/Close splits for batting, situations where Altuve excelled to the tune of .463/.542/.707 splits. Give me the man who has become a unit of measurement.
National League
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| Photo by Chris Humphreys (USA TODAY Sports) |
159 G, .309/.373/.586, 37 HR, 43 2B, 7 3B, 130 RBI, 100 R, 3 SB.
This one was a lot harder. Giancarlo Stanton led the National League in Wins Above Replacement per Baseball Reference, but I imagine a lot of that stems from his hitting 59 homers. Arenado was fourth in WAR in the league (Max Scherzer finished second) and wasn't far behind, largely because of his Gold Glove-caliber defense at third, but he was sixth in offensive WAR again per Baseball Reference. He finished ninth in batting average, fourth in slugging, and sixth in OPS. Yes, Coors Field played a role, but Arenado finished with almost a 50-50 split in homers (19 at home, 18 on the road) which helps offset the fairly large disparity in hitting. But again, when you factor in his defense that has little to do with the ballpark, I think it's fair that the man gets his due, especially in helping lead his team to the postseason. Charlie Blackmon will probably end up taking away some of Arenado's votes, while Stanton is going to get some votes, and so will reigning MVP Kris Bryant, but to me, Arenado has to get the nod.
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