2015-16 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

This weekend features the annual Chicago Marriott Naperville Tip Off Tournament, and there's something notable missing... I have yet to preview the NCC men. This year is the first time I've dedicated a full post to each team, which seems fairer than splitting one post between the two. More so, I felt the women's team deserved their fair share of attention, given how connected I was to last year's squad.

This is Year Two of me pulling double duty at Merner Fieldhouse, and this year's men's team is an intriguing prospect. They will have to find a new identity to some degree, but there are good pieces in place for the upcoming campaign. Let's take a look.


North Central Cardinals
2014-15: 18-8 (8-6), 4th in CCIW, Lost in CCIW Semifinal

I didn't necessarily give the men's team quite the respect that they earned last season. They won their first six games of the year and went into the Gauntlet with a 10-1 mark. They started strong, even sneaking their way in the top ten nationally, but fell to then #1 Augustana at home and then that Saturday against Elmhurst, also at home. A blowout loss at North Park left them at 4-3 in the CCIW halfway through, but they picked up a couple huge wins in the second half, including a narrow win over Wheaton at home and an overtime win at Augie. It still came down to the final weekend, however, requiring a clutch performance on Senior Night against North Park just to make the CCIW Tournament. They got it, but couldn't knock off top-seeded Augie a second time. They ended up as one of the first three or four teams out of the NCAA Tournament, though they were a hindsight snub; they recorded road wins against the two teams that made the national championship game in Augie and Wisconsin-Stevens Point. Alas.

This year's edition returns a large chunk of the backcourt from last year's squad, and it all starts with senior Jayme Moten. Moten finished the 2014-15 campaign, NCAA Tournament included, 16th in the nation in three point percentage. There were several games he impacted last season with his Heat Check mode, leading the team in scoring nine times last year and was second on the team in scoring average, which will be needed once again this year. I'd like to see him drive to the basket more, as he's a good free throw shooter as well (81.6 percent last year). Moten won't have to do it all though. He has some good supporting cast members like Erwin Henry (7.5 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting) to help shoulder the scoring load. Joe Kennell was a good point guard as a freshman last year (3.3 points and 2.2 assists per game with only 30 turnovers for the season). He also has another senior leader in swingman Kevin Honn (7.9 points, 4.2 rebounds per game) to help out at both ends, though I'd like to see Honn step up a little more like he did at the end of last season.

Here's the problem for this year's team: their inside presence is a big question mark. The Cardinals lost two of their three best players from last year's squad in forwards Jack Burchett and Charles Rosenberg. Rosenberg developed from a sixth-man type guy on the Sweet 16 and Final Four teams from a few years back to the possible alpha dog in the paint. It's not easy to replace your leading scorer (16.5 points per game) and second-leading rebounder (5.8 per game) as well as your emotional leader... especially when your other ace forward graduated. Jack Burchett was an elite post defender for a long time, but added offense to his repertoire last year (11.2 points per game, third on the team) to go with his rebounding prowess (team-high 7.9 per game). Replacing 39 percent of your scoring and 40 percent of your rebounding is a major cause for concern.

Coach Todd Raridon went to work immediately this offseason and landed a big prize to help offset those losses in St. Charles East graduate Jack Bronec, who inherits the "Big Jack" title from Burchett. He worked his way up from the freshman B team in St. Charles to a starter his senior year for the Saints. He's going to get a baptism by fire this year, to be sure, but he's not going to be expected to be the savior of the program right away. Even so, this Cardinal program has always seemed to built from the inside-out, and Bronec's development is a key to realizing that. They'll have some additional help from sophomore transfer Alex Sorenson. He's 6'8" and was a key contributor for Northern Michigan last season (8.1 points and 4.5 rebounds per game). Coach Raridon seems pretty high on him, and there will be an adjustment period as he learns the system, but these guys could form the foundation for a two-headed monster this year and beyond.

Photo by Steve Johnston (Naperville Sun)

Elsewhere on the roster,the biggest addition comes from a bloodline. Todd Raridon's youngest son, Connor, joins the ranks this year following in the footsteps of his brothers Derek and Mitch. Connor was the driving force behind Neuqua Valley's 27 win team last year, averaging 15.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. He's 6'5" and will need a little time to adjust to the D-III game, but if he can pull off even 70 percent of the numbers Derek put him in his freshman year (21.3 points and 5.6 rebounds in 25 games), I'd consider it a success. Given that Raridon bloodline though, I wouldn't be too surprised if he breaks out big time. Behind him, there is a lot of youth who may not necessarily get a ton of playing time, but they will learn from the upcoming hellfire that is the Cardinals' schedule.

The Tip Off Tournament will be a baptism by fire, as the Cardinals immediately have two tough tests in a pair of Top 25 teams this weekend, then follow that up with a three game road trip. The biggest non-conference test comes on December 9th with the conclusion of a home-and-home set against the defending national champions in Stevens Point. The Cardinals will go to Miami the week before Christmas for a tournament, and get a couple final local tuneups after the holiday, including the Battle of Chicago Avenue at home against Benedictine before making another trip through The Gauntlet. In looking at the conference schedule, there will be a challenge with a pair of three game road trips on the docket, including one to close out the regular season. That sandwiches a five-of-six at Merner however, so it probably balances out.

Speaking of which, the CCIW returns stacked this year. North Central is picked to finish fourth in the preseason voting, which seems relatively fair. Augustana is the preseason favorite to win the CCIW once again, though one other coach went rogue in the voting, so Augie isn't unanimous despite being the almost unanimous preseason #1 in the country. They should be the favorite; they return their entire starting lineup and basically everyone else from last year's team, and Grey Giovanine is one of the best coaches in the country (side note: I'm also excited to restart the Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch when he comes to Merner in early February). Elmhurst got Giovanine's first place vote along with one other to rank second in the voting. I honestly can't blame them; they return almost all of their key contributors from last year's team that grabbed an at large bid to the Dance and won their first round game in triple overtime. Illinois Wesleyan is picked to finish third following their at large bid to the Tournament and winning their first game before getting knocked out by Stevens Point, and they return a lot of the pieces from last year's team as well.

The Cardinals are closer to third place than they are to the team right behind them in North Park, though I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings finally get their first CCIW Tournament berth this year. They were young last year and one win away from making it, but they get their final game of the year at home against NCC which will help if the circumstances are similar to last year. The bottom falls out after that. Wheaton has a couple good seniors in Riley Teuscher and Joel Smith to lead the way, but there's a ton of youth filling out the rest of the roster, and I don't know that they're ready to get back to competing at the highest level. Millikin has a few good seniors and I always want to respect an Aurora Christian alum who was part of the Don Davidson years in head coach Matt Nadelhoffer, but unless a lot of the young guys developed a ton last year, they may have trouble in the top-heavy CCIW. Carthage is a unanimous last place pick in the conference, which is weird given that I think Bosko Djurikovic is a good coach, but I'm not sold on the depth of his team either. Even so, all of these teams are going to be pretty good and the conference will be a two month war. It always is.

Before I get into some final thoughts, here's the CCIW's official preview for North Central.

The NCAA, like on the women's side, also made some rule changes in men's basketball for the upcoming season. There is one in particular that will be a major impact: the shot clock has been reduced from 35 seconds to 30. This is designed to speed up the game, though that shouldn't be too much of an issue at this level with the lack of media timeouts. The other major change of note is the elimination of the five-second rule for players being closely guarded. I saw it counted all the time, but I rarely saw it called last season. Most of the other changes aren't a huge deal to me with the exception of the new postseason experiment that will allow players six fouls instead of the current five.

To sum up: the CCIW is a monster this year, maybe more so than in previous years. The Cardinals are preparing themselves well for that gauntlet though with a tough non-conference schedule. The veterans on this team know what they're getting into and should be fine, but I still worry about the post players this year and the inexperience at that position. They're going to get a quick wakeup call though, and hopefully it will be enough to sneak back into the CCIW Tournament. Unfortunately, I'm just not sure if it's going to happen this year.

2015-16 Prediction: 13-12 (7-7 CCIW)