2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Mock Bracket

My Cyber Monday gift to you isn't much... but hopefully one final mock bracket was on your list.

I've been saying for several weeks that the mock brackets are getting harder and harder to make... but that's before I start crunching the numbers. The last couple of weeks, especially last week's, weren't too bad. This one makes me a little nervous going in though, because we're going to have to start considering two-loss teams in some of the at large spots.

As a quick refresher if you're new to this concept created by the authors of the book depicted to the left, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are a 16 team playoff made up of all ten conference champions and filled with six at large spots. Where I come in is with the selection criteria. I kind of organically fill and seed the field by combining my NCSS and Playoff Points rankings and combine those with computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin and a UCLA faculty member using the publicly available formula created by the late David Rothman.

So with that, here's a look at the final mock bracket before I do one for real.

1. Clemson (12-0, ACC Champion)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 67, PP2: 23.25, SAG: 4, ROTH: 3 (LW: 1)
2. Alabama (11-1, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 71, PP2: 29.73, SAG: 1, ROTH: 2. (LW: 2)
3. Michigan State (11-1, At Large)- NCSS: 6, PP1: 73, PP2: 29.91, SAG: 11, ROTH: 9. (LW: 3)
4. Iowa (12-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 57, PP2: 20.58, SAG: 14, ROTH: 7. (LW: 4)
5. Oklahoma (11-1, Big 12 Champion)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 72, PP2: 24.09, SAG: 2, ROTH: 1 (LW: 5)
6. Ohio State (11-1, At Large)- NCSS: 6, PP1: 63, PP2: 23.09, SAG: 3, ROTH: 5. (LW: 7)
7. Stanford (10-2, Pac-12 "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 59, PP2: 29.80, SAG: 8, ROTH: 12. (LW: 11)
8. Notre Dame (10-2, At Large)- NCSS: 26, PP1: 55, PP2: 21.30. SAG: 10, ROTH: 10. (LW: 6)
9. Florida State (10-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 53, PP2: 20.50, SAG: 6, ROTH: 14 (LW: NR)
10. Florida (10-2, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 54, PP2: 23.10. SAG: 20, ROTH: 15. (LW: 8)
11. TCU (10-2, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 42, PP2: 15.60, SAG: 7, ROTH: 6 (LW: NR)
12. Houston (11-1, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 50, PP2: 17.27, SAG: 29, ROTH: 18 (LW: NR)
13. Western Kentucky (10-2, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 10, PP1: 50, PP2: 11.22. SAG: 44, ROTH: 47. (LW: 13)
14. Bowling Green (9-3, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 9, PP1: 41, PP2: 15.78. SAG: 45, ROTH: 39. (LW: 14)
15. San Diego State (9-3, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 35, PP2: 13.33, SAG: 54, ROTH: 76. (LW: 15)
16. Arkansas State (8-3, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 31, PP2: 12.00. SAG: 77, ROTH: 67. (LW: 16)

Out of the playoffs: Baylor (9), Oklahoma State (10), Navy (12)

I only had to bump one conference champion this week, as Navy lost, so they're out of the mix. I did swap the SEC title over to Alabama even though they're tied, but Alabama is better by every metric, so they get the temporary title until they likely take it officially this coming weekend.

Photo by Gerald Herbert (AP)

For another week, I'm looking at these top two teams once again, and Alabama continues to have the math advantage in every category save one: Clemson is undefeated. That has to mean something, so the Tigers remain atop the playoff field. Alabama will have to settle for the third home game, which I'm sure they're fine with in the grand scheme of things. They edge out Michigan State, who has slightly better Playoff Points in both categories, but the computers like Alabama better. The Tide also have the better loss (Ole Miss as opposed to Nebraska), so Michigan State would have to travel to Tuscaloosa for the semifinals. The numbers for Michigan State are significantly better than they are for undefeated Iowa, who is the temporary placeholder for the conference title. The Hawkeyes will keep the second home game once again, but with the Spartans and Hawkeyes playing for the conference title next week, that will change.

Photo by Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)

This is the advantage for Oklahoma, so before Sooner fans jump off the wagon to strangle me for screwing them out of a second home game, bear with me. Once again, that undefeated regular season has to mean something, even if it means the Sooners would have to travel to Iowa for their second round game under this mock. However, there's one significant game left. If Iowa wins, we're probably looking at Iowa being the #3 seed and Oklahoma probably moves up to #4 while the Spartans drop. If Michigan State wins next weekend, Iowa will fall out of the top four while Oklahoma moves up to their spot. See, Oklahoma fans? Relax. All is well. You're going to get a second home game as the Big XII champs barring something weird happening.

Photo by Tim Fuller (USA TODAY Sports)

Meanwhile, Ohio State finishes the regular season with just one loss, and they're in the thick of the national race. While they wouldn't make a four team playoff, they're in as the #6 seed. Stanford got the huge last second win over Notre Dame and that catapults them a ways up to the #7 seed. The Irish, meanwhile, suffer their second loss, but their stats are good enough where they aren't going to drop out of the playoff picture entirely. They get the last home game.

Photo by Phelam M. Ebenhack (AP)

They match up with a newcomer to the 2015 bracket: Florida State. The Seminoles really weren't in the conversation until today when I had to start looking at two loss teams. Florida State just picked up a huge win against the SEC East winner in Florida, did so on the road, and have solid computer rankings. That head to head win puts them ahead of the Gators. Two loss Baylor nearly stayed in, but they fall due to a head to head loss: TCU. The Horned Frogs have slightly lower computer rankings (but still top 10) and have higher Playoff Points, so they get the final at large berth. Those computer rankings give them a narrow edge over Houston, who returns after a one week absence by pounding Navy to knock them out and earn a berth in the AAC title game. A one-loss Cougar team probably deserves better, but we'll look into that a little more next week once the Big 12 schedule is complete and also depending on what happens in the SEC title game.

The 13 seed was a subject of a little more debate for me this time around. I'm sticking with the Hilltoppers at 13 due to a better win (the 3 point victory over Louisiana Tech) and the fact that they have a better record and higher PP1. PP2 and the computer rankings lean more towards Bowling Green, but it's close, so I'll stick to my guns. Bowling Green has better metrics across the board than San Diego State, who stays in at the 15 seed while Arkansas State remains at the 16 seed for now.

Photo by Tony Gutierrez (AP)

My toughest out at this point would probably be Oklahoma State, who the computers still love, as well as Baylor, but the Bears still have one more game left. A win might be enough to get them back in, but it would depend on what happens to teams like Florida. If the Gators get killed, I could probably be convinced to put Baylor back in. It's tough for the Big 12, though they at least still get two teams into the field. Navy is a bit of a tough out as well, but a win over a bad Army team, even though it would get them to 10-2, is probably not enough for me. After that, I think my toughest out is Northwestern, who had a phenomenal year and hopefully will get a New Years bowl game as a reward... you know, as long as they don't get fleeced in the process even though they probably will because bowl executives are corrupt.

That will do it for my final mock bracket. Tomorrow, I will do my final NCSS ranking of the season (where there are only a couple conferences to cover), and I'll touch on the conference title games. Check back again next week though when the dust will settle and I unveil the official 2015 Death to the BCS Playoff bracket!