2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Mock Bracket

Last week was the easy bracket. This week, it gets harder.

We lost enough undefeated teams that at the same as the College Football Playoff got to begin discussions, my committee of one got to start looking at setting up the playoff system proposed by Wetzel, Peter and Passan. If you need a refresher, this is a 16-team playoff bracket including the ten conference champions and filled in with six at large teams. These teams are then seeded 1-16, with home court advantage going to the higher seeds in the first three rounds.

So to determine the at large teams and the seedings, I use my NCSS rankings and Playoff Points rankings, the full information for which can be found on my Google Sheet. I then also add in consideration from a pair of computer rankings that include margin of victory: one by Jeff Sagarin, who used to do one of the computer rankings for the BCS, but his BCS one did not consider margin of victory because of "sportsmanship", or so the Cartel claimed; and one by the late David Rothman as compiled by a UCLA faculty member. These factors will combine somewhat organically to form the bracket. So after much self-deliberation, here's what we're looking at for this week's mock.

1. Clemson (9-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 1, PP1: 45, PP2: 16.44, SAG: 2, ROTH: 3. (LW: 1)
2. Alabama (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 42, PP2: 19.50, SAG: 1, ROTH: 3. (LW: 4)
3. Ohio State (9-0, Big 10 "Champion)- NCSS: 6, PP1: 38, PP2: 12.56, SAG: 5, ROTH: 8. (LW: 3)
4. Notre Dame (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 19, PP1: 38, PP2: 16.88. SAG: 7, ROTH: 5. (LW: NR)
5. LSU (7-1, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 35, PP2: 18.57, SAG: 11, ROTH: 6. (LW: 2)
6. Iowa (9-0, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 36, PP2: 12.33, SAG: 16, ROTH: 7. (LW: 6)
7. Michigan State (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 6, PP1: 39, PP2: 14.50, SAG: 22, ROTH: 27. (LW: 5)
8. Oklahoma State (9-0, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 30, PP2: 10.44, SAG: 9, ROTH: 4. (LW: 9)
9. Stanford (8-1, Pac-12 "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 34, PP2: 15.00, SAG: 8, ROTH: 14. (LW: 11)
10. Florida (8-1, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 35, PP2: 13.63. SAG: 12, ROTH: 11. (LW: NR)
11. Baylor (8-0, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 20, PP2: 5.38, SAG: 4, ROTH: 1. (LW: 8)
12. Houston (9-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 23, PP2: 5.56, SAG: 24, ROTH: 18. (LW: 12)
13. Western Kentucky (8-2, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 10, PP1: 27, PP2: 7.50. SAG: 54, ROTH: 51. (LW: NR)
14. Bowling Green (7-2, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 9, PP1: 22, PP2: 7.43. SAG: 44, ROTH: 39. (LW: NR)
15. Arkansas State (6-3, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 20, PP2: 7.17. SAG: 85, ROTH: 74. (LW: NR)
16. San Diego State (6-3, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 17, PP2: 6.50, SAG: 60, ROTH: 80. (LW: 16)

Out of the playoffs: TCU (7), Memphis (10), Toledo (13), Appalachian State (14), Marshall (15)

This one took much more time than last week's edition. I need to note now how I've decided conference championships: they go to the team with the best record in conference through the end of the weekend (hence why Florida is the SEC "champion" despite Alabama being seeded much higher). We also lost three of our conference "champions" due to losses this week in Toledo, Appalachian State and Marshall. For the latter two, that's probably it, though Toledo probably has a chance to sneak back in.

As for seeding, Clemson's win over Florida State just solidified them as the top overall seed with four games to go for them. They haven't clinched a spot yet, but just looking at the schedule, odds are they're in, and have a good shot at the top overall seed. Alabama will have something to say about that though, and despite their one loss, they have an incredible resume that earned them the number two seed. Ohio State remains right behind the two of them, but they have a strong shot of moving up in the seedings with tough matchups against Michigan State and Michigan  in the weeks to come. The four seed goes to a team which, admittedly, I snubbed last week because of the sheer number of undefeateds: Notre Dame. The Irish have just one loss, but it was a narrow one to the top overall seed. They've earned their spot.

Photo by Dustin Satloff (Des Moines Register)

LSU was one of the teams I debated about dropping, but again, their only loss is to the number two seed and they have the metrics to back them up, so they remain in. Undefeated Iowa has fairly similar numbers, so they fall in right behind the Tigers with a very friendly schedule the rest of the way, including an all-but-clear shot at the Big Ten title game. Things are tricky after that, but despite their controversial loss, Michigan State has friendly metrics on my end, though the computers don't like them much. Their wins, however, place them just ahead of Oklahoma State, who knocked TCU out of this week's mock and gets the final first round home game.

Photo by Bob Drevin (isiphotos.com)

It gets a little harder after that, with a couple undefeated teams still unseeded. Stanford's one loss is to a good Northwestern team back in Week 1, while Florida hasn't looked great, but is by my definition the conference champion, so they're in for now. Their higher Playoff Points get them the edge over Baylor, who is a computer darling but has played literally no one, though that changes over the next four weeks. Those computer rankings give them the edge over Houston, who's 9-0 and could have been higher, but the Playoff Points numbers are pretty close. That leaves the other four conference champions in the last four spots. Western Kentucky and Bowling Green, each with two losses, fight for the 13 seed, and for that I gave the extra win for Western Kentucky the edge, because everything else pretty much evens out. Then of the two teams remaining, Arkansas State edges out San Diego State due to their common opponent record (the Red Wolves beat South Alabama, while the Aztecs lost to the Jaguars.

I looked at six total one-loss teams, including TCU and Memphis who dropped out. I think TCU is my toughest choice and first team out, though interestingly Oklahoma would probably be second on that list. Utah is also in the mix, and would probably be right after them. For disclosure: North Carolina was not one of those one-loss teams, as they are ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs due to playing two games against FCS opponents.

Again, please note that this is just a mock, and that this will not be the official Death to the BCS Playoff Bracket unless some weird things happen. It's almost certain that this will change come next week, and there are still a few more mocks left to go. In the meantime though, I will be back tomorrow with a look at the Week 11 schedule.