I had a historically bad week last week, with Adam winning eight of our ten disputed games. It propelled him to a phenomenal week and the kind of massive lead I'm used to being on the right side of instead of staring up at. Clearly, something needs to change.
So this week, I debated about going gimmicky like Adam did last year, but I think with three weeks' worth of games, I can manage on my own. I hope.
Adam and I had discussed this in past weeks, but over the past couple weeks he has been going to topbet.com to put in our picks based on the ESPN lines and see what would happen if we were to bet $100 on every game. He wasn't able to find data for Week 1, but has data from each of the past two weeks. Thanks largely to his phenomenal Week 3, he has a 112 percent return on investment, good for an almost $400 profit for the last two weeks. By contrast, I'm sitting on a hypothetical loss of well over $1000. The lesson, as always: gambling is bad.
The byes begin this week with New England and Tennessee off this week, so there are only 15 games this time. For the week, Adam and I disagree on eight of the 15 games. It's been a pretty contrarian first four weeks. Let's get to it.
Thursday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I'm guessing this is an overreaction to Big Ben's knee injury. That's big, but the Steelers still have plenty of weapons (Bell and Brown) and I have no confidence in the Ravens anymore this season. Taking the points and calling for an upset.
Adam: Steelers. I know I always say this, but this line does not seem right. I know Big Ben is out, but Bell is back and the Ravens have not really shown me anything. I mean the Ravens lost on the road to the Raiders. Either the Raiders are that good (yes) or the Ravens are that bad (yes).
Lucas note:
Sunday Morning
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Lucas: Jets. Minimal time zone lag impact since both teams are from the East coast, but the last time we had MORNING FOOTBALL!!!!, we had a game that ended with inept coaching, and Joe Philbin is involved...
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Lucas: Falcons. If it weren't for Pissed Off Tom Brady, Julio Jones might be my MVP through three weeks of the season. Holy crap.
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Lucas: Bills. Beating Washington is one thing. Going into Buffalo and facing that defense... have fun, Eli.
Adam: Giants. I am picking the Giants based purely on the fact that McCoy will probably not play.
Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Raiders. "Hi, I'm Ryan Pace of the Chicago Bears, and EVERYTHING MUST GO! We're now accepting draft picks for all merchandise! But wait! Give us a first round draft pick, and I'll throw in Jay Cutler, FREE!"
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Maybe this is the year Andy Dalton and company take the next step...?
Adam: Bengals. It will be a fun game to watch. And I would go with the over (o/u 44) if you like to bet. Kansas City has a banged up secondary and the Bengals like to throw. I am firing up the Dalton/Green/Eifert combo in my daily leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Indy's going to take advantage of their weak division, but there's no reason they should be favored by almost double digits over anyone right now. Except maybe the Bears, but even then...
Adam: Colts. Man I really want to take the points here, but I think this is going to be a blowout much link the Jags/Pats game last week. Luck should finally have a good week too.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+3.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Maybe the DeMarco Murray injury was a blessing in disguise. I don't know, but I do know facing the Redskins might be a good cure-all.
Adam: Eagles. How is this even a question…
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Lucas: Panthers. So if Cam Newton is "too young" to get a late hit call, does that mean Jared Allen can piledrive Jameis Winston three seconds after he scrambles out of bounds and not get called for it?
Adam: Buccaneers. I feel like going against the crowd on this one. And also I just think this could be a trap game for the Panthers; not sure where that feeling is coming from.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers (-7.5)
Lucas: Browns. Look, I still think Manziel is overrated, but he has a higher ceiling that Josh McCown. Mike Pettine is an idiot. Either way, taking the points.
Adam: Chargers. Put in Money Manziel. I also think we will finally find out how well Gordon can run.
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Teddy Bridgewater ranks near the bottom of the league in net yards per pass attempt. Send him against one of the best defenses in the NFL? Have fun, guys.
Adam: Broncos. The Vikes have been surprising so far, but I think Denver's D, Manning and Co. pull this over just fine. Though it will be interesting to see who gets more touches in the Broncos backfield.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (+9.5)
Lucas: Packers. Something something pissed off Aaron Rodgers, something something 31st-ranked scoring defense.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I mean, the easiest way to get your team moved to Los Angeles would be to burn down your own field...
Adam note: I am surprised as I put in my pick
online to see how lopsided the picks were in favor of AZ. I understand people picking AZ, but not 8 out
of 10.
Sunday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. ...Did I just bet on Brandon Weeden? I must be high.
@northsider89 @OllieUKEZ you're on weeden
— Brandon (@ahamsterman) September 27, 2015
Adam: Saints. Getting
Brees back and at home. Should be a
shoot out and a fun game to watch.
Lucas note: Presumably getting Brees back at home, anyway.
Monday Night
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Lucas: Lions. Taking the points, because I'm still not sold that the Seahawks are firing on all cylinders yet.
Adam: Lions. Megatron and Stafford hook up a few times. A great battle between Sherman and Megatron will ensue. And also Lynch may not be able to go, or if he does will only be limited. I know it is in Seattle, but I don’t see it being a blowout.
Records So Far
Lucas: 20-28 (5-11 last week)
Adam: 29-19 (11-5 last week)
Geoffrey: 27-21 (12-4 last week)
Scott: 25-23 (8-8 last week)
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