After Adam went 0-3 on hero picks in Week 5 and lost four of the five disputed games, his lead has narrowed. The group as a whole is pretty well clustered together, with him and defending champion Geoffrey Clark tied atop the leaderboard, while I'm just four games back and my dad is just one behind me (bearing in mind that an entry error on one of my picks a few weeks ago cost me a point on ESPN). The fun note that I saw was that we all swept the late afternoon games on Sunday, which might be a first.
Money-wise, I'm starting to gain some ground again. After being about a grand in the whole from Weeks 2-4, I gained $400 last week to get to about $600 down. Adam, meanwhile, fell just short for the week of breaking even and is now $40 in the hole. Still better than me, obviously, but the gap is narrowing.
After last week's closer semblance of groupthink, Adam and I disagree on an eight games of the 14. You can also view my straight up picks over on UKEndZone. Anyway, with a chance for me to tie or take the lead again, let's get to the spread picks.
Thursday Night
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (+3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. The Saints gave up 39 points and almost six yards per carry to the freaking Eagles. You think Devonta Freeman is going to pass up his chance here?
Adam: Falcons. Until someone can show they can stop and beat Atlanta I think you have to go with them every week. Atlanta is certainly helped by the emergence of a running game as well.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (+2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Buffalo seems overrated, and they've cost me multiple games this year. Meanwhile, the Bengals are on a roll and per my editor Ollie Connolly, Andy Dalton may have figured things out.
Adam: Bengals. Sans McCoy, even at home, like the Falcons, got to go with a hot hand. Dalton is often an over looked QB in the league but with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, he is quite deadly.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Lucas: Bears. I figured Detroit would take a step back, but not like this. It also helps, and I can't believe I'm saying this, to have a certain guy at quarterback.
That's the real PURE JAY, @northsider89.
— Geoffrey Clark (@gfclark89) October 11, 2015
Adam: Lions. In Detroit,
the Lions coming off a disappointing loss to Seattle. I think the Lions are hungry and want to
fight. The Stafford/Johnson combo goes off
for 150 and 2 TD.
Lucas note: You know, assuming we don't see Dan Orlovsky again...
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Throw for 457 yards against a defense like Denver's and we'll talk, Josh. Also, holy crap Gary Barnidge.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Titans. It was clearly time for Joe Philbin to go in Miami, but this team is probably going to remain a dumpster fire until Ryan Tannehill decides to play nice/gets killed by Jon Bois' 400 pound defensive monsters.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Andy Reid now has to rely on Alex Smith, which isn't exactly the best situation to be in. Get well soon, Jamaal.
Adam: Chiefs. I know, I know, no Charles, and the Chiefs secondary is bad/hurt. But look, all Minnesota has is an aging AP. Bridgewater will not be able to take advantage of the soft secondary and I think we see the re-emergence of Kelce this week to make up for the loss of Charles.
Washington Redskins @ New York Jets (-5.5)
Lucas: Jets. New York has had a week to get reoriented to everything except toilet paper, so I think they'll be fine.
Adam: Jets. I don’t see how the Jets don’t win by at least a TD. Ivory is running well, Decker and Marshall are catching well. The Skins have surprised a little this year; actually I hope they do pull it out. I expect a lot of people in a survivor pool to pick the Jets this week. I did not.
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Clearly, both teams can score. Problem is, can the Steelers slow down Carson Palmer and company? I'm not convinced they can, even with correct clock running.
Adam: Steelers. Not sure why. Just feel like the Steelers win on Monday was solid and that Bell is still going to put up the points regardless of who is under center.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+0.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. In a pick 'em, I'll take the team with an actual quarterback over the team with Bryan Hoyett. Yes, I just combined them into a single quarterback, who will still probably be terrible.
Adam: Jaguars. In a true pick ‘em going with the home team here. I think the Jags have a deceptive defense and Bortles is not looking that bad right now. I know he is hurt, but if he can play through it the Jags will take it.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Let's see... Seahawks' season on the ropes, game at home, presumably getting Marshawn Lynch back this week... yeah, I think I'm gonna lay the points.
Adam: Panthers. Other than a few spots, the Seahawks have not looked that great. It is at home, so I give them the win, but I am seeing a back-door cover by Carolina.
San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Lucas: Packers. Green Bay is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in their Acme throwbacks. Even noting that they're changing them up this year, this is one piece of history I refuse to bet against. Also, to the group coming over from England/Ireland including my UKEndZone colleague Thomas Moore: enjoy Lambeau for me!
Adam: Chargers. Apparently I was told by Lucas (see above as I am sure he wrote about it – Packers Homer) that when the Packers play with their throwback jerseys the games are blowouts, so logic tells me to take the Packers. The Chargers have a decent offense when it gets rolling though, so I'll take the points.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I still think the Ravens are better than their 1-4 record suggests. Either way, poor Joe Flacco. Maybe Trestman was the major problem for the Bears last year...
Adam: 49ers. They looked much better against the Giants last Sunday night; almost pulled it out. At home against a under-performing Ravens team, I like their chances.
Sunday Night
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. The Tom Brady Revenge Tour continues against the team that set up the sting operation that exposed Roger Goodell as a tyrant? They can't make this line high enough.
Adam: Colts. Wow, this is hard. Luck coming back from his shoulder and Brady playing better than anyone thought. Colts give 7.5 pts at home… WOW. No one would have said that at the beginning of the season. I think many folks had this as one of the better early season games. Well I like Luck to break out. Colts win straight-up.
Lucas note: So he's ignoring all aspects of recent history (New England has won six in a row, including four straight by 20-plus points) AND Pissed Off Tom Brady? I think this is a mistake, sir...
Monday Night
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Everyone except seemingly Vegas seems to be high on the Giants. This means they're due for a letdown. I look forward to your 300 yard, four touchdown night to mess me up again, Eli.
Adam: Eagles. With Beckham and Randle hurting I just don’t see how the Giants get much of anything done. And knock-knock - where is DeMarco Murray? Oh, there he is… he just showed up last week putting up his best game with 120 yards. Even though it was against the Saints, I don’t see him slowing down now that he is started.
Lucas: 37-40 (9-5 last week)
Adam: 41-36 (6-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 41-36 (9-5 last week)
Scott: 36-41 (8-6 last week)
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