I was flying high after a phenomenal Week 5... then Week 6 happened. Adam went 4-0 on hero picks because regression to the mean doesn't make any sense and he ended up taking seven of eight disputed games to rebuild a massive lead, then did a mic drop when he emailed me his picks.
There's still a lot of time left, and Adam overcame a larger deficit to make last season interesting, but he had far and away the best week out of anyone in our group to own a huge first place gap.
Money line wise, Adam was in line for more money with his contrarianism, and it earned him a huge payday. After being slightly down last week, he's now up roughly $400 since Week 2, while I lost all my gains from last week, and then some, falling to -$1200. Thankfully, no real money is being bet here other than the $20 I put down on Detroit and Minnesota for Week 1 while I was in Vegas... that was a waste.
The NFL returns to London this week for one of its 14 games, and for the first time will be broadcast only online. For this week though, Adam and I disagree on only five picks. This isn't too bad, actually. Let's take a look at the picks.
Thursday Night
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. San Francisco is better than I thought and the Seahawks have been blowing late leads like crazy. I'm actually surprised this line isn't a point or two closer.
Adam: Seahawks. Seattle is looking down and San Francisco is looking
up, but I see a slippery game developing
here. I think it will be late game
scores that take this one. Giving the
points.
Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. For UKEndZone, I originally picked the Bills straight up then kind of panicked realized the Bills are a mess. They're getting penalized like crazy, they've fallen from one of the best defenses in the NFL to one of the worst, and Rex Ryan is a loon. Taking the points and the upset across the pond.
Adam: Jaguars. I mean they have to show off for their soon
to be fan base… the Jags have been a surprise this year and the Bills a
disappointment. I take the points.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans (+4.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I'm not entirely sure what happened in New Orleans last week, but Atlanta is facing Zach Mettenberger. They'll be fine.
Adam: Falcons. If you can stop the air attack, which I think Tennessee may be able to do, you cannot stop the run. Fire up Freemen in all formats this week. I think I see two bill in his future – 200+ all purpose yards.
Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (-5.5)
Lucas: Browns. Cleveland just went toe to toe with probably the best defense in the NFL and forced overtime. I'll take the points here, even though there's a decent chance Josh McCown is going to get killed by the Rams pass rush.
Adam: Browns. The Browns
hung tight against a solid Denver D last week. It may be asking a lot to go against 2 solid D's in a row, but I do not
like the rams offense... and yes, that is in part
due to Foles.
Lucas note: Here, for your enjoyment sir:
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. When you need overtime and more BS from the NFL about what is/isn't a catch to beat the Bears, I'm not picking you. Also, I hate Golden Tate.
Lucas: Colts. Maybe the first few weeks were all a ruse to get us to sleep on Indy? Either way, this may be the breakout week for Andrew Luck... you know, as long as Chuck Pagano isn't drunk while calling plays again.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I'm assuming the line is this close because we're probably looking at Landry Jones starting at quarterback for the Steelers, but there's still too much talent elsewhere on this roster for the line to be this low.
Adam: Steelers. A chance
at Big Ben back…? Maybe not, but Pitt has dumped Vick for their 3rd
stringer who goes out and passes for 150 and 2 TD last week against a solid Arizona
defense. He gets a much softer secondary
here.
Lucas: Dolphins. All right, I'll back Dan Campbell for another couple weeks, especially against a Texans team that really hasn't beat anyone.
Adam: Texans. Going
against the grain here a little. I think
Miami wins but Houston covers late.
Lucas: Jets. Look, this line scares me. The Jets are clearly good enough that they can compete with New England, so I'm taking the points. I just wouldn't be totally shocked if this turns into a rout.
Adam: Patriots. Ah, last
week I was the weirdo who said the Colts could cover against New England and took the
points. Now, here I am laying the points
with an argulably better team. Crazy. I know the Jets have a solid secondary, but
Gronk and Brady are good enough to break it. With Dion coming from the back field, I see this game getting out of
hand fast. Also I think Ivory has his
first off week of the season (that he actually plays a snap).
Lucas: Redskins. I'm not a fan of this game, and even though Kirk Cousins has gotten picked off a lot, so has Jameis. I'm just gonna take the home team and stop talking about this game.
Adam: Redskins. All Tampa has right now is a middle of the road running game and a weak passing game. Well, the Skins have been quite stout against the run this year and I don’t see Winston starting up any great passing game.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I'm guessing Phillip Rivers will still be recovering from his trip to the 500 Club on Sunday.
@northsider89 wait till he sees the cover charge
— Gregg Easterbrook (@EasterbrookG) October 18, 2015
Adam: Chargers. I am
faiding fast on the Carr-Cooper combo. I
still think that team will put up decent number, but San Diego is just too good. Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Matt Cassel is a much better option than Brandon Weeden, my brief drug-induced infatuation with his first half against the Falcons notwithstanding. But will someone please explain to Jerrah how a broken foot works?
Adam: Giants. This
line is a little low in my opinion. I
know Giants are coming off of a loss, and Dallas changed up QB's. Beckham, though he played, was not as
effective as he could/should have been. I think he played less than 100% and
Philly knew that and took him out. With
a week’s rest, the Giants roll at home.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Obviously, Seattle isn't the same as in years past, but mounting a comeback in one of the toughest environments in the NFL to stay undefeated is a big deal. Coming back home, I think they take care of business. But let's be honest; I'm really only picking the Panthers because I'm owned by a mini panther and I'm trying to score brownie points with Gizmo, who's been more of a momma's boy lately.
Monday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Only a week... or several... late on running away from the Ravens. Better late than never, I guess.
Adam: Cardinals. Until the Ravens show me something more I cannot trust them.
Records So Far
Lucas: 41-50 (4-10 last week)
Adam: 51-40 (10-4 last week)
Geoffrey: 43-48 (2-12 last week)
Scott: 40-51 (4-10 last week)
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