2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

The coalition returns for another week of NFL picks against the spread!

We were all pretty bunched together in Week 7, with one game separating each picker, and it has resulted in a three-way tie for second place (because bear in mind, I accidentally had the wrong pick on ESPN back in like Week 2 so I'm behind a game) amongst our group. Adam remains in the lead despite my taking three of our five disputed games last week.

In terms of the hypothetical money line, Adam had a slightly down week last week and is now only up about $200 for the year starting from Week 2. I think I stayed around even for the week, but I'm still down over $1400. The lesson again: gambling is bad.

This week, Adam and I differ on seven games out of the 14. Let's take a look at the slate.



Thursday Night

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Given the state of injuries in New England and the newfound energy in Miami, I'm going to take the points on this one. That much is a lot for such a quick turnaround.

Adam: Patriots. The Pats are coming off a few down weeks, and out of nowhere Miami posts almost 50 points. I don’t see either of those trends continuing. Brady/Gronk get working again and find the end zone at least one time.

Sunday Morning

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Stafford is gonna get killed, and maybe now Jim Caldwell will be added to the list of guys fired coming home from London unless Joe Lombardi was that big a scapegoat.

Adam: Lions. The Lions are not as bad as their record shows. They have had a few games decided by narrow margins.  With KC's secondary and being down Charles, I see the Lions feasting in London.
Lucas note: Look at the stats. The Lions are bad.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Atlanta has come back down to earth, but I'm not sure that the Bucs can cover a touchdown spread. I have no faith in Jameis.

Adam: Falcons. Got to continue to trust Matty Ice. They have had a few off games, but at home against a weak opponent should get them back on the right track.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+1.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Nothing like the terrible Bears defense to awaken a struggling Adrian Peterson and get Teddy Bridgewater going again.

Adam: Vikings. I want to take my Bears… but alas I cannot. Even at home they are dogs to the Vikings.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+0.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Even with Big Ben expected to play, I'm expecting a little rust here. Though I'm just gonna be honest: I'm picking against the Steelers on principle this week in my annual campaign against those god-awful bee uniforms.

Adam: Bengals. Tough choice. But even with Big Ben back, I don’t see him doing much. He will be a little tentative.  And dare I say, may even aggravate it again… Cincy with the road cover.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Well, we may finally get Johnny Football... too bad it's against a really good team.

Adam: Browns. Why am I having such a love affair with such a crappy town? The Browns have been playing way better than even I thought they would. Arizona comes off a harder than it should have been win over Baltimore and now gets a surprise Browns team. Arizona wins, but Cleveland covers.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
Lucas: Titans. Taking the points because disband the AFC South. My goodness.

Adam: Titans. Ummm... Houston we have a problem… Arian Foster is hurt… AGAIN! Quick, find the odds he does not play another game ever. If its 2-1 or better I am taking it.

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (-8.5)
Lucas: 49ers. ...Do we really live in a universe where a Nick Foles-led offense is favored by over a touchdown? The Niners are awful, but this line is too big. I'm taking the points.

Adam: Rams. At home, with Gurley about to overtake Lynch as Beast Mode… holy crap. Gurley has, what, 3 NFL games (first game aside since he was limited in that game) and all of them are for 125+ rushing with more from passing. His fewest yards from scrimmage is 159... Insane. Thank god I drafted him in the 9th rd of my keeper league…

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Giants. I'm not entirely sure how the Saints are favored here. So they beat the Colts. Big whoop! The Colts are bad! I don't get Vegas... 

Adam: Saints. Looks like the Saints may have finally found their stride. An interesting game for sure that will be decided by whose defense can stop the other just one more time. I'll give the points at home and take New Orleans.

San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. HOW ARE THE RAVENS FAVORITES?! These teams aren't even close to even! Come on, Vegas.

Adam: Chargers. I was a little surprised last week when I was talking with a friend about football. He told me the Bolts had only 2 wins and I could not believe him... but sure enough, that is the case. Now that surprises me. San Diego should be a way better team on paper. Rivers/Allen are having an epic season so far. I see that continuing.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders (+1.5)
Lucas: Jets. The Jets defense is better than Oakland's defense and Ryan Fitzpatrick is having something of a renaissance. As long as Brandon Marshall isn't a headcase idiot again, they'll be fine.

Adam: Raiders. Going a little against the grain as compared to the ESPN masses.  Ivory looks like he may be a bit banged up, traveling cross-country and getting a surprise team that beat up on San Diego (see above for my shock on SD season thus far).

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (+6.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I'm taking the points here just because I'm not convinced Seattle is 100 percent there yet. Also, Matt Cassel >>>>>>>>>>>>> Brandon Weeden. 

Adam: Cowboys. Only on the basis that games involving Seattle tend to be low scoring affairs and Dallas should get its first bit of good news all season… Bryant may be back this week.

Lucas note: I'm still not sold that he's ready. Jerry Jones is an idiot.

Sunday Night

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Lucas: Packers. Yes, I'm aware I'm breaking the "Don't bet against Peyton Manning at night" rule, but does it really deserve to be a rule now? He's showing his age, and even though Denver's defense is outstanding, they haven't faced an elite offense yet. Their touchdown rate is unsustainable. 

Adam: Broncos Packers. I think Lucas always says do not bet against Peyton Manning at night… so… ok, scratch that.  Even at night, even with a solid D, even being a home dog, I have to go with Green Bay in this game. Right now Rodgers is way better than Manning.

Lucas note: If we're going to go down breaking this rule, might as well go down together.
 
Monday Night

Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Andrew Luck is going to be like the mouse Rascal caught last week. He's gotta be hurt, but at least he's not in the jaws of a black cat... yet.

Adam: Colts. Generally speaking, I thought all of the lines this week are well set. This game is no exception. I can see this game going either way against this line. At the end of the day, I think Indy will be out to prove it is a better team than they have been to this point. Indy covers but still loses…prediction - Adam Vinatieri missed a 53 yard FG as time expires... Ok, that is a bit of a stretch, but you never know…

Records So Far
Lucas: 48-57 (7-7 last week)
Adam: 57-48 (6-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 48-57 (5-9 last week)
Scott: 48-57 (8-6 last week)