After an awful two week stretch, I rebounded a little bit, finishing a hair above .500 for the week, which doesn't seem that great, but everyone else had a down week. I've ended up with a lot of "hero" picks, but this week I went 3-0 in those to get back into contention. And to think, as a group we went 1-4 on unanimous picks. Alas.
Either way, I'm now back into the thick of the race four weeks in after taking five of the eight disputed Week 4 games. Adam sent along our current winnings were we betting $100 on each game from Week 2 onward. I got about a four percent return on investment in Week 4, but would still lead me about a grand in the hole, while Adam's rough week ended well enough to keep him just above water at about $67 of profit. I'll try to keep updating this as best as I can on a weekly basis.
This week with four teams on bye, we have 14 games to pick. We finally have some semblance of groupthink a month into the season, as we only disagree on five games, way down from our average of over eight per week. It means Adam's lead is safe for now, but also likely means we won't see much movement in the standings. Let's get to the picks.
Thursday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+2.5)
Lucas: Colts. This one is for my Colts fan supervisor at work whose last day is tomorrow. Good luck in Indy, sir.
Adam: Colts. I don’t know what had happened to the Colts this year. They should have been so much better than they are; Luck has not had any, supposed resurging Andre Johnson has done nothing, they just squeak out a win against Jacksonville… but still I like them better over Houston, even with a returning Foster.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Until someone's defense shows they're capable of slowing Atlanta down, I don't know that I'm betting against them. And I don't see Washington's defense slowing them down.
Adam: Falcons. I know
that the Skins have hung tough against some decent opponents, but I just cannot
see this game even being close. Freeman
will probably not have 3 TDs again, but should do just fine, and I don’t think
Jones will be held for less than 40 yards like last week. Fire up all your Falcons in your fantasy
leagues.
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Rex is insane; you can't get away with relentlessly blitzing quarterbacks like Eli. You can probably get away with relentlessly blitzing Marcus Mariota though.
Adam: Titans. Going a little backwards here. It is looking like the Bills will be down to their 3rd and 4th string RBs which is a huge hit. They get another minus for being on the road. I know the Bills' D is tough, but this is a great test for Mariota and I see him rising to the challenge.
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Lucas: Bears. The odds of a back door cover with Jay Cutler are exponentially higher than they are with Jimmy Clausen. Also, I look forward to Matt Forte getting traded to a contender in the next week or so.
Adam: Bears. Wow, I picked the Bears. Haha. Here is the way I see this game going: Charles tears up the Bears on the ground, the Bears have to resort to throwing the ball and are able to make headway with the Chiefs weak and hurt secondary. Then, Smith and Kelce clean up the pieces late.
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Considering it took a monumental play from Kam Chancellor to help Seattle win last week, I'm not taking them on the road. Still don't think they're all there.
Adam: Seahawks. Cincy does have a good offensive attack, but Hill has not done all that much this year and Seattle will shut that down. Also the Cincy receivers will be shut down by the stellar Seattle secondary. It’s just a matter of if Seattle can move the ball and score.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Lucas: Ravens. If Manziel were starting, I'd probably bet Cleveland. Since Mike Pettine is an idiot, I'm not going there.
Adam: Ravens. A short pause for me to think about for a second... Steve Smith Sr. is out with a back issue. But then you look at the Browns and what do they really have… not a whole lot. I think Forsett has another big game. Maybe it’s his week to join the 3 TD club.
St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Lucas: Packers. Vegas is getting wise about upping the lines at Lambeau... not that it's going to do the Rams any good. I'm sticking to a gambling rule I picked up last year: Don't bet against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.
Adam: Rams. I am invoking the gambling rule: take the points when they are over 10. I know it’s only 9.5, but that is close enough for me when the Rams have a decent D.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Lucas: Saints. Chip Kelly right now:
Lucas note: My editor over at UKEndZone wrote a good piece on the Eagles. Part of it is Bradford, part of it is that awful offensive line.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. If the Jaguars can't beat a 40 year old Matt Hasselbeck, I'm not favorable of them on the road, even against a struggling Jameis Winston.
Adam: Jaguars. Two of the most high powered offenses clash here in an epic battle… ummmm wait… scratch that. A thriller in Florida this week… wait… not even that. Oh who am I kidding, this is going to be the Garbage Bowl. I think the Jags prevail on the basis of their game against Indy last week.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Jim Caldwell and company took the high road after Monday, which is good considering it's not the refs' fault the Lions lost. Detroit's better than their 0-4 record suggests, but they're not taking out the Cardinals.
Adam: Cardinals. Based on the final score of the Seattle/Detroit game last week (blown call aside), I thought more people may pick the Lions getting points at home. Clearly people saw through what really was a sloppy game by Seattle and a lucky game by Detroit.
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys (+9.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Normally I'd take the points here, but look where betting on Brandon Weeden got me last week. Also, he's going up against Tom Brady, and you should never count out Touchdown Tom.
Adam: Patriots. The Cowboys seem to be playing Russian Roulette with every snap of the ball. I envision scene like this taking place on the sideline when a player's number is called… [EDITOR'S NOTE: VIDEO IS NSFW]
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+5.5)
Lucas: Broncos. If the Raiders can only manage 20 points against the Bears... how are they going to fare against that Denver defense?
Adam: Broncos. 39 year old Peyton Manning > 24 year old Derek Carr. On the whole, the Broncos are way better than Oakland. The only question mark with the Broncos is their running game, but it looks like it will not be too long before C.J. Anderson is back up to Ronnie Hillman.
Sunday Night
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-7.5)
Lucas: Giants. Eli and company actually look pretty good this year, and I'd also like to echo one William C. Matthews III.
Monday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers (-3.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Other than the Big Ben injury, I don't see why this line is so high. I doubt the Steelers miss two field goals again.
Adam: Chargers. This game is going to come down to how well Vick plays. I am predicting not any better than he did last Thursday night: A game within 1 score, but not within 4 points.
Records So Far
Lucas: 28-35 (8-7 last week)
Adam: 35-28 (6-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 32-31 (5-10 last week)
Scott: 28-35 (3-12 last week)
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