In reality, Ohio State won the first real championship at the highest level of college football last week. Before them, we had three paper champions: Florida State in 2013 and a pair of Alabama teams in 2011 and 2012. In Death to the BCS action, Alabama won championships in 2012 and 2014, while Oklahoma State took the 2011 title and Stanford won in 2013. There's overlap with one team, but overall, it begged a question to me: which team in the past four years is the best?
To decide this, I'm going back into the simulator, but I'm switching the format around. With eight teams (technically seven, but 2012 Alabama is playing twice), I'm going to do this as a Round Robin type tournament similar to how the Glenbard West Holiday Classic I worked in 2011 went. The paper champions and 2014 Ohio State will play a round robin amongst themselves, while the four Death to the BCS Champions play their own round robin. The winner of each pool will battle it out for the first Death to the BCS Quadrennial Championship.
First, quick set of rules. For the round robin portion, I'm only going to simulate each matchup once, just to make things quick and easy. The championship game, however, will be a best-of-three simulation, with the "clinching" game being the official result. If 2012 Alabama advances in both pools, the championship game will not be played. All games will be "played" at a neutral indoor site to minimize the impact of home field and weather (and make things easier so I don't have to find dates to look up weather for). The team with the best record in each pool of four teams will advance to the title game. In the event of a two-team tie, the head-to-head winner will advance. In the event of a three-team tie (three teams go 2-1 in a pool with a rock-paper-scissors effect), the team with the best point differential in games involving the tied teams will advance. All simulations are once again provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play.
Round 1
Paper Champions Pool
'12 Alabama 23, '11 Alabama 8
2011 Alabama struggled on third downs, converting just four of 18, but 2012 Alabama couldn't manage more than a couple early field goals before AJ McCarron threw and 11 yard touchdown to Amari Cooper to make it 13-0 at the break. '12 Eddie Lacy added a 22 yard touchdown in the fourth quarter following a field goal to make it 23-0. '11 Alabama got on the board with about four minutes left on a McCarron-to-Lacy touchdown from 13 yards out. '11 McCarron threw 43 passes, completing 28 for 293 yards, a touchdown and a pick. '12 McCarron only threw 18 passes, completing 11 for 231 yards and a score. '12 T.J. Yeldon had 82 yards on 14 carries while '12 Lacy had 72 yards and a score on 19 carries.
'14 Ohio State 42, '13 Florida State 25
The Seminoles were able to keep the game reasonably close; Ohio State opened the scoring with the Seminoles answering immediately, but the Buckeyes responded with touchdowns on their next two drives. FSU closed the gap to make it 21-14 at the break, then added another touchdown early in the third quarter. The Noles added a field goal in the third, and Karlos Williams scored early in the fourth and Winston hit Rashad Greene for two to make it a 28-25 game. Cardale Jones went back to work, adding two more touchdowns to reach the final margin. Jones finished 28 of 36 for 383 yards and five touchdowns, while Ezekiel Elliott added 93 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Jameis Winston completed 19 of 31 passes for 279 yards and a score, while Devonta Freeman rushed 17 times for 113 yards.
1. '14 Ohio State (1-0, +17)
2. '12 Alabama (1-0, +15)
3. '11 Alabama (0-1, -15)
4. '13 Florida State (0-1, -17)
Death to the BCS Pool
'12 Alabama 40, '11 Oklahoma State 6
Ah, Brandon Weeden... He moved the ball fairly well on OSU's first possession before Joseph Randle fumbled and the Tide recovered, going on to score a field goal. Weeden moved the Cowboys down in response, got into the red zone, but had to settle for a field goal. Alabama then went 82 yards in nine plays, capped by a 24 yard touchdown run for Eddie Lacy. Weeden got picked deep in his own territory, and Lacy added another score from a yard out. They would add another field goal later to make it a 20-3 halftime lead. AJ McCarron threw a pick on Bama's first possession of the second half, but Weeden threw another one a couple plays later, and Lacy added a third rushing score to pretty much put it away. Lacy ran 24 times for 100 yards and three scores,, while T.J. Yeldon added 128 yards on 17 carries. Weeden ended up throwing 50 passes, completing 27 for 307 yards, but was picked off four times. Justin Blackmon had 11 catches for 151 yards for the Cowboys.
'14 Alabama 35, '13 Stanford 33
T.J. Yeldon opened the scoring with a 16 yard touchdown three minutes into the game. The Cardinal got into scoring range on their next two drives, but had to settle for field goals on each to make it 7-6. Bama answered the second one with Blake Sims hitting Amari Cooper for 36 yards out to make it 14-6. Stanford went three and out, and Bama added another score from Yeldon. Stanford would add a late field goal to make it 21-9 at the break. Stanford got the ball to start the second half and finally got into the end zone with Kevin Hogan hitting Davis Dudchock from two yards out. Stanford's defense then couldn't stop the Tide from marching down to score a touchdown of their own to make it 28-16. Hogan threw another touchdown on the next drive to make it 28-23. Despite a goal to go situation, the Cardinal then had to settle for a chip shot field goal to make it a two point game. Bama then embarked on a six minute drive for a touchdown. The Cardinal answered with another Hogan touchdown pass, then kicked deep with 3:38 left. Amazingly, they forced a punt and moved downfield, but Jordan Williamson missed a 50 yard field goal on 3rd and 2 despite holding a timeout and the Tide held on. Blake Sims completed 19 of 25 passes for 307 yards and a touchdown, while Amari Cooper caught eight passes for 165 yards and that score. Stanford's Kevin Hogan went 22 of 32 for 337 yards and three scores.
1. '12 Alabama (1-0, +34)
2. '14 Alabama (1-0, +2)
3. '13 Stanford (0-1, -2)
4. '11 Oklahoma State (0-1, -34)
Round 2
Paper Champions Pool
'11 Alabama 41, '13 Florida State 17
Florida State started out pretty well, holding the Tide to a short field goal before Winston hit Greene for a nine yard touchdown to take the lead. Trent Richardson punched in a three yard score to make it 10-7 late in the first, but the Seminoles answered back with Winston hitting Christian Green from five yards out to make it 14-10. The Tide would score two more times in the quarter to make it 24-14. Florida State would only manage a field goal the rest of the way. Winston did not have a great game, completing 26 of 41 passes for 280 yards and two scores, but was picked off three times. AJ McCarron completed 17 of 24 passes for 249 yards and three scores, while Trent Richardson logged 27 carries for 167 yards and two touchdowns. Dont'a Hightower sacked Winston once and picked him off twice.
'14 Ohio State 17, '12 Alabama 12
Alabama ended up having to settle for field goals on each of their scoring drives, including an opening chip shot from 23 yards out. Cardale Jones went to work on the Tide secondary however, hitting Devin Smith from six yards out midway through the second quarter for a 7-3 edge. Midway through the third, Jones hit Ezekiel Elliott for a 26 yard catch and run touchdown to make it 14-6. AJ McCarron had a bad game, completing only ten of 22 passes for 159 yards while Eddie Lacy ran 18 times for 110 yards. Meanwhile, Cardale Jones completed 20 of 31 passes for 256 yards and two scores and the Buckeyes sacked McCarron three times.
1. '14 Ohio State (2-0, +22)
2. '12 Alabama (1-1, +10)
3. '11 Alabama (1-1, +9)
4. '13 Florida State (0-2, -41)
'13 Florida State is eliminated from Quadrennial Championship contention.
Death to the BCS Pool
'11 Oklahoma State 30, '13 Stanford 23
Joseph Randle opened the scoring with a 12 yard touchdown run. In response, Stanford's Anthony Wilkerson fumbled and the Cowboys recovered. The very next play, Trent Murphy picked off Brandon Weeden and ran it back 40 yards to tie the game. Stanford added a field goal, Weeden got picked again, and the Cardinal turned it into a Kevin Hogan to Michael Rector 14 yard touchdown and a 17-7 lead. Weeden got on the board on the next drive, hitting Randle from six yards out, then the teams traded field goals before halftime, with Stanford leading 20-17. Oklahoma State scored twice in the third quarter, including a 30 yard touchdown run by Jeremy Smith to make it 30-20. Stanford got a field goal with about five minutes left, then kicked deep. The Cowboys moved the ball, but Justin Blackmon fumbled after a catch and the Cardinal recovered. They managed a first and goal at the eight, but Hogan took two sacks, scrambled for a loss, and missed a desperation heave from 22 yards out. The Cowboys won despite Weeden throwing four picks, though he did have 383 yards and two scores on 25 of 45 passing, including ten completions for 150 yards and a score to Justin Blackmon. Kevin Hogan completed 12 of 19 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown, but was sacked six times.
'12 Alabama 27, '14 Alabama 19
2014 Alabama seemed to have a more balanced attack, but had to settle for field goal attempts, splitting a pair in the first quarter. Meanwhile, they were unable to stop the early 2012 Alabama attack, as in the second quarter, Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon scampered for touchdowns of 63 and 73 yards, respectively to sandwich another missed field goal. Blake Sims hit his Yeldon from 19 yards out late in the half, and '12 Alabama led 14-9 at the break after a missed extra point. '14 Bama added a field goal early in the third to make it, interestingly enough, 14-12 in favor of '12 Alabama. The '12 Tide scored 13 unanswered points with field goals sandwiching a five yard touchdown from McCarron to Amari Cooper. A pick also helped, making a late 53 yard touchdown run by '14 Yeldon was too little, too late. McCarron only threw eight passes, completing five for 58 yards and a score, while '12 Lacy and Yeldon combined for 30 carries, 233 yards, and two touchdowns. '14 Blake Sims completed 22 of 31 passes for 279 yards, a touchdown and a pick, while his Yeldon ran for 149 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Adam Griffith missing field goals of 43 and 44 yards, plus an extra point, didn't help the '14 Tide either.
1. '12 Alabama (2-0, +42)
2. '14 Alabama (1-1, -6)
3. '11 Oklahoma State (1-1, -27)
4. '13 Stanford (0-2, -9)
'13 Stanford is eliminated from Quadrennial Championship contention.
Round 3
Paper Champions Pool
'14 Ohio State 55, '11 Alabama 41
Holy offense. McCarron's second pass of the game was picked off by Vonn Bell, who ran it back 43 yards for the opening touchdown. Bama responded with a touchdown to tie, and the teams traded field goals to make it 10-all early in the second quarter. Ohio State took over from there, with Ezekiel Elliott running for a pair of touchdowns making the difference between each team adding another field goal before halftime. Elliott scored again less than a minute into the third quarter, and Cardale Jones added a pair of touchdown passes to make it 48-13. The Tide mounted a late rally, with Trent Richardson rushing for three straight touchdowns to close the gap to 48-34, but Jones added another touchdown pass with about four and a half minutes left to seal the deal. Elliott finished with 23 carries for 204 yards and three scores, while Jones had 264 yards on 19 of 33 passing with two more touchdowns. Trent Richardson ran 31 times for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while McCarron completed 19 of his 33 passes for 207 yards and two scores, but had two interceptions as well, including that pick-six.
'13 Florida State 25, '12 Alabama 22
Devonta Freeman picked up a 71 yard touchdown run to open the scoring in the first, and not to be outdone, Eddie Lacy ran 61 yards to set up a one yard touchdown by Kenyan Drake to tie the game. Each team added a field goal in the second quarter to make it 10-10 at halftime, and Bama kicked another in the third to make it 13-10. Winston picked up 54 yards on a pass to Kelvin Benjamin to set up an eight yard touchdown pass to Christian Green to make it 17-13. Alabama kicked another field goal to pull within one, forced a three and out, then needed just four plays and 1:38 to score a touchdown, with Yeldon punching it in from a yard out. McCarron failed the two point conversion to make it 22-17 with just under five minutes to go. Winston needed only three, leading a touchdown drive capped off by a 20 yard strike to Rashad Greene. Karlos Williams added the two point conversion to make it 25-22. Alabama had two separate drives to try and answer, but turned it over on downs, forced a stop, and a McCarron Hail Mary fell about 28 yards short. McCarron completed 16 of 24 passes for 231 yards, while Eddie Lacy ran for 98 yards on 20 carries. Winston finished with 282 yards on 18 of 30 passing, while Devonta Freeman ran for 122 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.
1. '14 Ohio State (3-0, +36)
2. '12 Alabama (1-2, +7)
3. '11 Alabama (1-2, -5)
4. '13 Florida State (1-2, -39)
Death to the BCS Pool
'11 Oklahoma State 31, '14 Alabama 24
Weeden and company struck first, hitting Josh Cooper from four yards out to open the scoring. The teams traded field goals, then Bama tied it with a one yard strike from Blake Sims to Brian Vogler. Weeden moved downfield late in the half and hit Justin Blackmon with a three yard touchdown to make it 17-10 at the break. The Tide struck back early in the second half, with Derrick Henry rumbling for a 52 yard touchdown to retie the game. A few minutes later, Weeden hit Blackmon again to make it 24-17. Late in the quarter, after turning aside Yeldon on a 4th and 1 at the Cowboy 40, Joseph Randle ran 57 yards for a score to make it 31-17. Alabama scored midway through the fourth and picked off Weeden, seemingly turning the tide. Alabama ultimately had 1:52 to go 90 yards and made it all the way to the OSU 15, but Sims' final shot was overthrown. Weeden finally had a good game overall, completing 37 of 54 passes for 385 yards, three scores, and only one pick, while Joseph Randle had 92 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Blake Sims completed 18 of his 26 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns, while Derrick Henry had 101 yards and a score on 16 carries.
'12 Alabama 16, '13 Stanford 3
T.J. Yeldon punched one in from 12 yards out a couple minutes into the game to make it 7-0, and Stanford couldn't get anything going on offense, save a field goal late in the first half. Alabama made one off an early second quarter miss, then blocked a Stanford punt to add another. Alabama closed the scoring with one more field goal midway through the third quarter. It wasn't a great game for Kevin Hogan, who completed 14 of 24 passes for 206 yards, while Tyler Gaffney ran 28 times for 84 yards. Eddie Lacy did a ton of damage for the Tide, picking up 157 yards on 22 carries, while Yeldon carried 15 times for 67 yards and the game's only touchdown.
1. '12 Alabama (3-0, +55)
2. '11 Oklahoma State (2-1, -20)
3. '14 Alabama (1-2, -13)
4. '13 Stanford (0-3, -22)
Championship Game
'12 Alabama vs '14 Ohio State
Game 2: '14 Ohio State 35, '12 Alabama 30
Game 3: '12 Alabama 54, '14 Alabama 31
So despite beating them in pool play, the Buckeyes fall in the title game to the Tide. Eddie Lacy opened the scoring with a 71 yard touchdown run, though the Buckeyes answered fairly quickly, with Curtis Samuel running one in from 30 yards out to tie. Bama would eventually come back with another Lacy touchdown, this one from two yards out. After adding a field goal to make it 17-7, Ezekiel Elliott broke free and ran 85 yards for a touchdown. Alabama then put the game away by scoring 17 unanswered points to end the half up 34-14 thanks to a Yeldon touchdown and McCarron hitting Christian Jones. Yeldon then scampered 63 yards for another score early in the third for the dagger, though both teams would score ten points apiece in the fourth quarter. Eddie Lacy had a monster game, carrying the ball 21 times for 205 yards and two scores, while T.J. Yeldon had 15 for 167 and two more touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott had 18 carries for 166 yards and two scores for Ohio State, while Cardale Jones completed 20 of 31 passes for 317 yards and a score. He was sacked five times, however.
No comments:
Post a Comment