Super Bowl XLIX Predictions and Prop Bets

We're almost here! The day that should be a national holiday is upon us, and with it, the biggest game of the year.

Slowly but surely, I've gotten over the Epic Collapse of 2015 that resulted in this matchup in Arizona. It's a matchup a lot of people predicted coming into the year, and was made all the easier by the fact that these two teams were the top seeds in their respective conferences.

So who will win on Sunday: Seattle or New England? And what about the more fun part of Super Bowl Sunday: the prop bets?

Given the significance of the day, I've recruited some help. After giving me a run for my money in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em this season, Adam is back to do prop bets with me. We will have our picks for a variety of bets following our Super Bowl predictions. All bets are taken from a list provided by Bovada. Let's get to it!

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (+2) (+/- 48.5)

Photo by Otto Greule, Jr. (Getty Images)

These two teams in their (more or less) current incarnations met in 2012 at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks won and Richard Sherman yelled "You mad, bro?" at Tom Brady following the victory. Since then, Seattle has won a Super Bowl and the Patriots are back in the big game after losing in the AFC title game back to back years. Really, these two teams are about as evenly matched as you could get. Both teams have strong, balanced offenses led by elite quarterbacks who can put up points in a hurry, and both teams have very good defenses, especially in the back end.

Game Predictions

Lucas: There's no way in hell New England will have the kind of day they did against Indy, largely because the Seahawks are worlds better. On top of that, there's no way Seattle will struggle for 55 minutes like they did against the Packers. That said, even though I'm sure a bunch of Seahawk fans will make the trip to Arizona, they won't have full home field advantage. Ultimately, I think we'll have a defensive struggle, but both offenses will be able to break through a little bit. It's going to come down to who has the ball last. I kind of agonized over this decision, but ultimately, I don't know how the Legion of Boom plans to cover Rob Gronkowski, or if they even can. Gronk comes through on a final drive for the Patriots to deflate (see what I did there?) the hopes of Seahawk fans and finally help give Brady his fourth ring. Patriots 24, Seahawks 23.

Adam: A rather boring looking game. NE has been here before and Seattle is the defending champs, so not much excitement from a “new team to be here” standpoint. That said, I think it could still be a very fun game, not a blowout like last year… Early on I see a back and forth defensive battle.  Ultimately the first team to score a TD will be the winner.  I think that will go to the Wilson – Lynch combo. I must say, at the beginning of the year, I would have probably said I would like Brady over Wilson, but Wilson has really shown me that he can be and is much more than a silly read option QB that I hate…(Tebow/Newton/…). Seahawks 27, Patriots 20.

Records So Far
Lucas: 128-138 (1-1 in Championship Round)
Adam: 126-136 (8-8 in Week 17, no Wild Card picks, 2-2 in Division Round, 1-1 in Championship Round)

Prop Bets

Again, pulling our lines, over/unders and bets from Bovada's website, we're going to pick the following props. These first few are all non-football related and are just fun, then we're going to go into some of the game-related ones (but only a few, as some of the props listed by Bovada are such crapshoots), and then we're going to close with MVP-related props.

To decide a "winner" out of all of this, we're going to pretend we're laying money on each of these props, except I will refer to them as "points". (You know, the whole gambling being of questionable legality combined with the fact that I'm poor). Some of these props (mainly the MVP and multiple touchdown ones) are multiple choice, and you have different choices. Each pick for these will put 100 points on the line. For example, Gronk has 9/1 odds to win MVP, so I would bet 100 points on him to win, and if he does, I get 900 points. With most of the other props, there is a money line. After some discussion with Adam, we decided on the fairest way to score this: we lay 100 points regardless of whether it's on a favorite or on a dog. This way, we're betting the same number of points (with one possible exception on a prop bet to be seen below).

I'll tally up the points we're betting and put that, as well as the possible reward, at the bottom of the post rounded to the nearest hundredth of a point (this is based on money, after all). Whoever ends up with higher "winnings" will win. We're finishing with the same number of points bet (forcing me to adjust one of my bets out of fairness), and to a degree, there's an incentive to bet on the underdog since there's a bigger windfall to be had, but since football is a weird sport, it could be anyone's game. Let's see how crazy we are.
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How long will Idina Menzel's rendition of the National Anthem be? (+/- 2:01)
Lucas: Under (-120). She's sung the anthem before, and been able to do it in under two minutes. I'll take the history.
Adam: Over (-120). Eh, this is a coin flip to me, just went over.

Will Idina Menzel forget/omit at least one word of the "official" anthem?
Lucas: Yes (+450). This is more of a value bet than anything else. It's -800 to say "No", and while I would figure she'd get all the words right... "The Star Spangled Banner" is a harder song than you'd think. Take the points.
Adam: Yes (+450). Something tells me this will pay out on a technicality; Jose is not an official word in the anthem.
Lucas note: 

Lucas note: Truth be told, I laughed at that maybe more than I should have. I just wanted an excuse to throw a meme in there.

What will the result of the coin toss be (Heads/Tails)?
Lucas: Heads (-105). The value here is even, and I always take heads, just kind of out of habit. 
Adam: Tails (-105). I like big bu… you get it.

Which coach will the first one mentioned by name after kickoff?
Lucas: Belichick (-140). Given how much the media is fawning over the whole deflated balls thing... of course they're going to mention Darth Hoodie first.
Adam: Belichick (-140). Same as Lucas.

Which coach will be the first one shown on screen after kickoff?
Lucas: Belichick (-140). Same principle here.
Adam: Belichick (-140). Same as Lucas.

What color hoodie will Bill Belichick wear? (Grey, Blue, Red)
Lucas: Blue (+110). I figure it's more likely he wears grey, but blue is the second most likely and it has value. Screw it, I'm taking it.
Adam: Grey (-150). I have no idea, so I just pick the most neutral color.

Will Bill Belichick have a hoodie with or without sleeves?
Lucas: Sleeves cut (-175). There's history here, so I'm siding with it.
Adam: Sleeves cut (-175). It's indoors, right…?

Will Bill Belichick smile on camera between kickoff and the final whistle?
Lucas: No (-200). We're onto the trophy ceremony. Also, there is far more muscle action being used to smile than there is with... I believe the scientific term is, "resting bitch face". Take that, Bill Nye.
Adam: Yes (+150). Picking this becase on the off chance the Pats do win, I think we will see him smile as the coaches come together, or when the Gatorade (red BTW) is dumped.

Will Al Michaels make any gambling references during the game (i.e. point spread, over/under, prop bets, odds on who will win the game)?
Lucas: Yes (+170). How is this the underdog? DO YOU EVEN KNOW AL MICHAELS, VEGAS?! The man is a genius at gambling references.
Adam: Yes (+170). I love gambling.

How many times will "deflated" balls be mentioned between kickoff and the final whistle (+/-3)?
Lucas: Over (-140). This is as much of a slam dunk as you can get. Come on. 
Adam: Over (-140). Um, really… 3…? OVER!

What will Katy Perry be wearing at the start of the halftime show? (Pants, Shorts, Dress/Skirt)
Lucas: Shorts (+225). Skirt/dress is too obvious and I want some value. Also, I'm pretty sure like short shorts are a realistic possibility for Katy Perry.
Adam: Dress/skirt (-175). Doesn’t she always wear a dress.  Besides if she is going to change like 5 times, a dress seems like the likely starting point.

What color will the Gatorade bath be? (Orange, Yellow, Clear/Water, Blue, Red, Green) 
Lucas: Blue (15/2). This is the first "value" pick, where everything promises a strong return on winnings. This is a crapshoot, but I'll take some value with blue.
Adam: Red (15/2). I like fruit punch.

Will it be mentioned during the game that Pete Carroll was the last head coach of the Patriots?
Lucas: Yes (-150). In an era where the media will play up any freaking talking point and milk it for all it's worth? Of course they will.
Adam: Yes (-150). Certainly in the pre-game, but I still like the odds.

Lucas: 1300 points bet to win 2271.67 points.
Adam: 1300 points bet to win 2160.48 points.
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Who will throw more touchdown passes: Tom Brady or Russell Wilson (+0.5)?
Lucas: Brady (-130). Gronk. Spike.
Adam: Wilson (Even). I am flying high on Wilson; he has really impressed me.

Who will have more passing yards: Brady or Wilson (+39.5)?
Lucas: Wilson (-115). The value is the same because of the line, and Wilson is an underrated passer. I think he makes it close.
Adam: Brady (-115). Brady is much more the passing QB to move the ball.

Who will throw the first touchdown: Brady or Wilson?
Lucas: Brady (-165). I have a feeling we'll see Lynch on the goal line before Wilson tries to loft one. I look forward to you hitting Luke Willson uncovered downfield for a 40 yard touchdown to open the scoring, Russ.
Adam: Wilson (+135). See my game comments.

Who will throw the first interception: Brady or Wilson?
Lucas: Wilson (+120). Trying to grab some value before it's too late. Brady is tempting, but lest we forget, Wilson just threw four picks at home against the Packers and New England can force takeaways too.
Adam: Brady (-150). Is neither an option?  I don’t think any INT will happen, but if I have to choose between the two, I go Brady.
Lucas note: I'll play it as a "neither of us get points" if that happens. Seems like the fairest way.

Who will have more rushing yards: LeGarette Blount or Marshawn Lynch (-29.5)?
Lucas: Lynch (-115). Give me my Skittles.
Adam: Lynch (-115). Beast.

Who will have more tackles and assists: Darrelle Revis or Richard Sherman (-0.5)?
Lucas: Revis (-115). Gives me the advantage of the tie, and I also think it's more likely Wilson will try Revis than it is Brady will try Sherman. Also, who knows how healthy Sherman is at this point.
Adam: Revis (-115). Agree with Lucas, but also I don’t see Brady going Sherman’s way too much.

Who will score the first touchdown? 
Lucas: Luke Willson (16/1). Here's our second "value" pick, which is why I went down the list a little bit. Also, it hedges my bet on the first TD pass of the game somewhat.
Adam: Marshawn Lynch (11/2). See game comments.

Will any players score multiple touchdowns?
Lucas: Rob Gronkowski (9/2) and Luke Willson (20/1). I'm taking my chances with the tight ends on the third "value" pick. Gronk is more likely than Willson, obviously, but other than Beast Mode, if anyone is likely to score twice, it's these guys.
Lucas note: Out of fairness to Adam, since I'm picking two players here, I'm only going to bet 50 points on each to even out what we bet and get rid of some of the disparity.
Adam: Marshawn Lynch (3/1). Since I got Lynch with the 1st, I bet he goes for multiple.

Lucas: 800 points bet to win 3343.41 points.
Adam: 800 points bet to win 1412.55 points.
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Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?
Lucas: Rob Gronkowski (9/1). Our third straight "value" pick. Many years, it's an unlikely guy who wins the award because football is a weird sport. Ultimately, I figure since I predicted Seattle won't be able to contain him and he'll grab the game-winning score, he'll fight off Brady and win the award.
Adam: Lynch (5/1). See game and prior prop bet comments.

Who will the MVP mention first in his speech? (Teammates, God, Fans/City, Coach, Family, Owner, None of the above)
Lucas: Teammates (3/2). If we're thinking Gronk for MVP, it'll be his teammates (and something about them getting some action postgame, because Gronk). This would also cover a lot of other guys, especially Marshawn Lynch, since he'd probably end up thanking them before anyone else if he won.
Adam: God (2/1). Amen.

Lucas: 200 points bet to win 1050 points.
Adam: 200 points bet to win 700 points.

Points On the Line
Lucas: 2300 points bet to win 6665.08 points.
Adam: 2300 points bet to win 4323.03 points.