We did have some interesting developments in the past week though. In the opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, Ole Miss ended up beating TCU in Texas, but in reality, TCU ended up winning on a neutral field. Out of curiosity, I ran a sim of what would have happened had TCU won in the first round, and ultimately... it didn't impact anything. Thus, the final four remains intact.
So as a refresher, the two semifinal matchups will be simulated best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official result. Don Best's handicapping site is being used to make sure injured players don't impact the outcome, and because I actually forgot to check the weather conditions at or near kickoff time on Saturday, weather data for this week is being taken from Weather Underground. All simulations this week are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's see if we get a replicated championship.
3pm Game
Game 1: (1)ALA 51, (4)OSU 25
Game 2: (4)OSU 38, (1)ALA 17
Game 3: (1)ALA 33, (4)OSU 28
So the simulator disagrees with reality. I guess home field advantage had an impact. The Tide had little trouble moving the ball early, with Blake Sims hitting Brian Vogler from two yards out for the opening score. After forcing a punt, Bama moved into Buckeye territory quickly, then had to settle for a 48 yard field goal to make it 10-0. Blake Sims then led an eight play, 60 yard drive capped by a 16 yard touchdown to Amari Cooper. The Buckeyes continued to struggle offensively, and the Tide added a 23 yard field goal with 35 seconds left in the half to make it 20-0. Whatever Urban Meyer said in the locker room at halftime had an impact though; the Buckeyes needed just three plays to go 67 yards for a touchdown, capped by Ezekiel Elliott scoring from 32 yards out on a draw. After forcing a punt, the Buckeyes went back to work, converting four third downs, including a third and 10 from the 12 where Cardale Jones hit Devin Smith in the end zone to make it 20-14. Alabama would get into OSU territory but punted, and Ohio State took advantage of an unnecessary roughness penalty en route to a 13 yard touchdown pass from Jones to Noah Brown to give Ohio State their first lead of the game. Blake Sims hit Christian Jones for a 33 yard gain on the last play of the third quarter, then hit Amari Cooper for 31 on the first play of the fourth to set up a 7 yard touchdown by T.J. Yeldon. The two point conversion attempt failed, but the Tide forced a three and out, got great field position on the punt return, and two plays later, Sims hit Cooper from 27 yards out to make it 33-21. The Buckeyes went right back to work, aided by a 41 yard pass play to Devin Smith to set up a two yard touchdown pass to Elliott to make it 33-28. Alabama went three and out, Ohio State quickly got into Alabama territory, but failed to convert despite four tries from inside the 10, as Jones took a fourth down sack. The Buckeyes still had all three timeouts and got the stop on a third-and-10, but a facemask penalty allowed the Tide to burn most of the clock, and a late Hail Mary by Jones fell incomplete to end the game. Blake Sims completed 22 of his 32 passes for 320 yards and three scores, including two to Amari Cooper, who had 142 yards on nine catches. Cardale Jones had a good day as well, throwing for 297 yards on 24 of 36 attempts, while Ezekiel Elliott had 95 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, plus four catches for 21 yards and another touchdown.
6pm Game
Game 1: (2)FSU 39, (3)ORE 35
Game 2: (3)ORE 35, (2)FSU 25
Game 3: (2)FSU 45, (3)ORE 44
Definitely something about home field advantage/the lack of Jameis Winston collapses. After trading punts, the Seminoles picked up huge chunks of yards on their second drive, needing just five plays to go 89 yards, capped off by Dalvin Cook running it in from 16 yards out. The teams traded punts again, and Oregon converted a couple third downs before falling short, having to settle for a 43 yard field goal. After forcing a punt, the Ducks got good field position and moved 58 yards in seven plays, capped off by Marcus Mariota hitting Dwayne Stanford from 17 yards out to make it 10-7 Oregon. The Seminoles had to punt, and the Ducks got great field position again, this time needing only four plays to go 49 yards, capped off by Mariota hitting Devon Allen for a 20 yard touchdown and a 17-7 lead. The Seminoles took five minutes to march downfield, but had to settle for a 33 yard field goal. With time, Oregon marched again, moving 70 yards in ten plays but taking just 104 seconds to do so, as Royce Freeman punched it in from a yard out to make it 24-10 at halftime. The tables turned after halftime, as an offensive pass interference call stalled Oregon's opening possession, and the Seminoles returned the ensuing punt to the Duck 21. After a 17 yard pass, Winston handed off to Karlos Williams, who ran it in from four yards out. The Ducks had to punt again, and the Seminoles converted a pair of third downs to set up a 20 yard touchdown pass to Ermon Lane to tie the game at 24. Again, Florida State's defense was strong, allowing only a 46 yard field goal. Dalvin Cook responded with a 46 yard burst up the middle late in the third to set up an eight yard touchdown run by Karlos Williams about a minute into the fourth. Oregon had to punt, but Erick Dargan picked off Winston in the red zone, and the Ducks went 76 yards in eight plays, with Freeman picking up 36 on a draw to the end zone to retake the lead. Win ston got picked off again, this time deep in his own territory, and the Ducks needed three plays, capped off by a Freeman touchdown from four yards out to make it 41-31. Cook then had another big run for 71 yards, and Karlos Williams finished it off a couple plays later to pull back to within a field goal. The Ducks managed to get into FSU territory thanks to a Freeman draw, but once they got into the red zone the Seminoles stood firm and forced a 34 yard field goal with 2:09 left. This was enough time for Florida State, who needed less than two minutes to march 85 yards in ten plays, capped off by Winston hitting Cook from nine yards out to make it 45-44. A Mariota Hail Mary fell short, and the Seminoles advance to the title game. Jameis Winston was all right, completing 26 of 39 passes for 347 yards and two scores, but his two fourth quarter picks nearly killed his team. His running backs helped pick up the slack, with Dalvin Cook running for 181 yards on 17 carries, plus 30 yards on three catches for two total touchdowns, including the game-winner. Karlos Williams only had 50 yards on 17 carries, but had three scores. Marcus Mariota only completed 16 of his 31 passes for 235 yards and two scores while Royce Freeman tallied 25 carries for 181 yards and three scores of his own.
To see the updated bracket, click here.
It's tough because I want to believe in the system, but I firmly believe that the best way to decide a champion is on the field. So, while the Death to the BCS Champion deserves recognition, ultimately I will recognize the winner of the real game in Arlington, Texas as the true national champion this season. After all, they did earn it on the field, and my simulating a 16 team field did arrive at the same final four.
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