Super Bowl Predictions and Prop Bets

Disclaimer: These bets are being used for the purposes of competition on ESPN.com's Super Pick 'Em. No money is being wagered for the purposes of this competition. You know, the whole "gambling being illegal" thing.

I was looking for something to do in conjunction with my Super Bowl prediction this year, and happened to notice on ESPN's website that they are hosting a game to pick some of the fun prop bets they've picked out, and I figured why not. Those will be featured below (after the jump), but I do want to focus on the most important part of the weekend: the Super Bowl itself. The line for this week's game comes from footballlocks.com.

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
With a neutral site game, you can fully get what Vegas expects out of a matchup between two teams, since home field generally gives you 3 points to play with. I think the line sounds about right in the grand scheme of things, even if you go by some books that have the line at 4.

I really like the intrigue this matchup brings, and it goes beyond the already kind of worn out "HarBowl" moniker that this game has been given. The Niners were an elite defensive team that could out-physical most teams but had a question mark at quarterback in Alex Smith, but that question was definitively answered when Smith suffered a concussion and Colin Kaepernick Tom Brady'd Smith and the Niners have turned into probably the most complete team coming into the playoffs. On paper, the Niners are the better team. But that's what makes sports fun: games aren't played on paper.

The Ravens looked going into January like they'd be a fairly early out since they struggled to close out the regular season and didn't seem to have the momentum that most recent Super Bowl champs have had. Then Ray Lewis announced his retirement effective at the end of the season, and it gave the Ravens a little something extra to play for, like #Chuckstrong did in Indy for much of the year. When you combine that and his rejuvenation for this final run with the kind of tear Joe Flacco is on, this team is dangerous. San Francisco has shown they can be thrown on when the game is competitive. Aaron Rodgers did it for a while in the divisional round, and Matt Ryan did it in the first half of the conference title game. Niners fans would be delusional to think the Ravens can't move the ball through the air.

That's what makes this matchup so interesting. When you combine all these factors, it seems like we're bound for another game decided on the final possession. When it comes down to the winner, I have to go with the better team, but that emotional factor will likely allow Baltimore to at least cover the spread here.

Prediction:49ers 24, Ravens 21

Record So Far
6-4 straight up (1-1 last round)
139-126-1 against the spread (1-0-1 last round, 5-4-1 playoffs)

Now for my prop bets. If you want to pick against me and see how you fare, you can join my Pick 'Em group here. I was able to get Nathaniel in on this as well, and you can see his picks here. Some of the prop bets offered involve the final result of the game, so for reference, I pick the Niners to win but the Ravens to cover, and the official over/under is at 47.5, which I'm under on.

• What will be the length of the National anthem sung by Alicia Keys? (+/- 113.5 seconds)
• Lucas: Over. Come on, a lot of pop stars hold some of those later notes for a ridiculously long time. I just trust Alicia Keys will probably at least know the words.
• What will be the result of the coin toss?
• Lucas: Tails. Someone else pick heads and sign up for a chance at a free pizza if you get this right on the condition that we share. Which is for the best, seeing as I'm kind of on a diet.
• Which team will receive the opening kickoff? 
• Lucas: Ravens. Just a hunch. Baltimore will get to call, and I could easily see Jim Harbaugh deferring the kickoff if they win. I guess I could see John doing the same thing, but I just think it's more likely they would end up with the ball to start.
• Will either team have a double digit lead in the 1st Quarter?
• Lucas: No. He said so.
• Will both Ray Rice (BAL) and Frank Gore (SF) rush for 50+ Yards in the 1st Half?
• Lucas: Yes. I think both teams will try to establish the run early, and both these guys, even against really good defenses, could break some big runs at some point.
• Will a Touchdown be scored in every Quarter?
• Lucas: Yes. If I'm wrong, I'm betting it will be the first quarter that doesn't have any. But I feel like these offenses can put up a decent amount of points.
• Which side will record a higher total: Total number of points scored or the jersey number of the person who scores the first touchdown (+0.5)?
• Lucas: Total points scored. So basically, a running back or Michael Crabtree scores first. Or Kaepernick on a scramble. Or something like that. Fun prop bet to have, probably my favorite.
• Will Beyonce perform the song "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)" during the Halftime show?
• Lucas: Yes. Should change this prop bet to "Will you watch the Halftime show?" in which case I would say no. Given the popularity of "Single Ladies" even now (based on hearing it on The Mix on a regular-ish basis), I'd bet she does. Not that I care.
• Which player will score the first TD of the Super Bowl: One of a trio of players (Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Torrey Smith) or any other player?
• Lucas: Any other player. Based on the prior prop bet, this means I'm pulling for either LeRon McClain or Michael Crabtree. Or Kaepernick.
• What will be the result of the first coach's challenge: Call upheld or Reversed/No challenge?
• Lucas: Reverse/no challenge. As smart as these brothers are, they probably know how to use those red flags. I mean, they aren't like Mike McCarthy who only learned about the challenge system like last week.
• Which player will be named Super Bowl MVP: One of a trio of players (Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Ray Lewis) or any other player?
• Lucas: One of the trio. Barring a defensive touchdown by someone other than Ray Lewis, the most likely people to have the greatest impact on the game are the quarterbacks. I'm probably playing it safe here, but I'll take it.
• Which QB will record more Touchdowns in the game: Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick (+0.5)?
• Lucas: Joe Flacco. Yeah, Kaepernick can run, but I figure Gore will punch one in and Flacco probably throws for 3 scores. Just a hunch.
• Will WR Randy Moss (SF) score a Touchdown in the game?
• Lucas: No. He'll probably have a decent day, but I think I put more trust in the other skill guys for San Francisco. Even you, Vernon Davis.
• Which side will record a higher total in the game: Joe Flacco completed passes or 49er points (-0.5)?
• Lucas: Flacco completions. Since you can throw on the Niners, I figure he completes enough to get to about that 25 mark. And if anyone is likely to open a bigger lead, I'd probably put money on the Niners, which would force Flacco to throw the ball.
• Will there be a lead change in the 2nd Half?
• Lucas: Yes. This is probably going to be a tight game in the second half, so I would expect there to be one. I wouldn't be shocked if there isn't though.
• What will be the length of the longest TD play in the game (+/- 49.5 yards)?
• Lucas: Under. As good as these defenses are, I don't see a defensive breakdown. Unless one of these teams signed Rahim Moore and I didn't notice it.
• Will there be a Defensive or Special teams TD scored in the game?
• Lucas: No. If there is, that team likely wins, but I'm not sure I see it happening, even with these great defenses.
• Will any points be scored in the last 2 minutes of 4th quarter?
• Lucas: Yes. This tight a game, it almost seems preordained to happen.