NFL Wild Card Preview

Welcome to 2014, COAS readers! 2013 was a busy year here, with a lot of focus on North Central basketball last season, my major project of deciding the best NBA champion of all time, and this fall's combination of working both the big time college and NFL angles. Sunday evening will see me resolving the semifinals and see if the Death to the BCS Playoffs will bring the same title game as the BCS will.

But today, I'm focusing on the start of the NFL playoffs. A lot of people have been complaining about the format of it, with some desiring reseeding of teams, and others seemingly wanting abolition of divisions. I like the playoffs the way they are. Win your division, earn a home game. That simple. We saw Seattle show in the playoffs following the 2010 season that they deserved to be there since they killed the Saints. Some of that may have been a product of home field advantage/the Saints being awful away from the Superdome, but still. Pretty much any of these 12 teams can make it and win in New Jersey in a few weeks. But there are hurdles to overcome.

Like last year, I'm going to pick both a straight up winner and go against the spread. Spread information is pulled from Vegas Insider. No money is being wagered however, and the spread is determined as close to publishing time as possible.


Saturday Games

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

For the first half of the season, almost all the talk around the NFL surrounded the hot start the Chiefs had with Andy Reid at the helm. After that 9-0 start, they've since gone 2-5 and have struggled against good teams. The Colts, meanwhile, had a stretch in the middle of the season where they didn't quite play to potential, but they picked things up as the season drew to a close.

Looking at it, Kansas City should be a tad fresher, since Reid sat most of the key figures last week. Tamba Hali remains questionable for the Chiefs, while at a glance Indy doesn't have anything significant beyond Reggie Wayne having been done for like two months now. I think ultimately what this game comes down to is that the Colts came into Arrowhead, one of the tougher venues to play in, and took care of business. You put them at Lucas Oil? I think we're looking at a pretty similar result.

Prediction: Colts 27, Chiefs 23

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

For those of you who think head coaches don't really matter in the NFL: look at the Saints in the last 3 years. In 2011 the Saints went 13-3 and won the NFC South. This year they're 11-5 and just missed the division title after last year's 7-9 mark. Some of that is an improved defense, but the return of Sean Payton can't be overstated. Meanwhile, the Eagles let Andy Reid go after a long stretch and got arguably the top coaching prize last offseason in Chip Kelly, who has brought a high-tempo attack led by a strong running game and backed up by Nick Foles' solid quarterback play.

New Orleans can't be underestimated; they're a dangerous team. But I think a division title was more important for them than any other team in the league, because now the Saints have to pull a 2010 Packers to get to the Super Bowl. This is probably their best shot, but after a season where they went 3-5 on the road and their best road win was an 8-point victory over the Bears? The odds are not in their favor.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Saints 28

Sunday Games

San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

I think it was just a couple years ago that the Chargers had the #1 offense and #1 defense (by yards, anyway) in the NFL, yet missed the playoffs. This year, they didn't do quite as much damage since a lot of those major pieces are no longer with the team. They also were left for dead with four weeks to go, yet went on a tear that included a win in Denver to steal the last wild card. Cincy, meanwhile, finally got over the hump in the AFC North and won the division, including that big Week 17 win over Baltimore to knock the defending champs out of the playoffs.

These teams met in San Diego a month ago, with the Bengals winning 17-10. Shift the scene to Cincy, where the Bengals have yet to lose a game this season, and I'm not sure the Chargers can pull it off. Too much talent on this Bengal team.

Prediction: Bengals 20, Chargers 17

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (+3)

This was a matchup I was fearing as a Packer fan. The last two years haven't been pretty, as this San Francisco team has had Green Bay's number with 3 straight wins. Yet at the same time, I feel somewhat okay with this matchup this time. Dom Capers' defense has been torched in the last two matchups, first on the ground in last year's division round exit, and in Week 1 this year as Kaepernick went off via the air. The 49ers have more of their weapons on offense available this time, so my fear is that Green Bay will get torched again. If I'm the Niners though, I'd be concerned about Green Bay again. The recent matchups have been closer than a lot of the common opinion has shown. Green Bay still put up 31 points in last year's playoff game and it was somewhat close for a good chunk of the game until bad turnovers happened. Earlier this year, Rodgers and company still put up 28 points and had a shot at the end (albeit a slim one) to steal the game.

The Niners instead have injury problems on the defense this time, and if Carlos Rogers can't go, expect Aaron Rodgers, who by now has shaken off the rust, to open fire via the air. They can also attack on the ground this time, now that Eddie Lacy has used this year to develop into a deadly back, with James Starks being a good change of pace guy. This game has the feel of a shootout with as bad as Green Bay's defense has been this year, and will probably come down to who has the ball last. Hopefully, it'll be Green Bay. Alas, I'm afraid I have to take the favorite to win, but I'm taking the points.

Prediction: 49ers 42, Packers 41

Record So Far
Lucas: 143-113 (11-5 last week)