NFL Divisional Round Preview

The quest to improve my picking resume for the 2014 season has failed. It's now impossible for me to finish above .500 for the year including the playoffs after an off week last week.

While I correctly picked three out of the four winners, in terms of spreads, one team covered that I expected not to, and another had to scrap out a late touchdown to win, forget about covering. This week, the "top four" teams in the NFL all get to host games.

Included with each game once again will be a line provided by Vegas Insider, taken as close to posting time as possible. If nothing else, maybe I can salvage a few games and make myself look like I kind of knew what I was talking about in 2014.


Saturday Games

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-7)

There always seems to be one game every year in this round where a home favorite winds up losing outright, and this might be it. I keep talking about how Tom Brady and the Patriots are pretty much unbeatable at home, especially late in the year, but Baltimore has proved to be the exception to the rule. This is their fourth postseason meeting the last six years, with the Ravens winning two of the first three, including the most recent meeting en route to Baltimore's Super Bowl victory. Baltimore has survived to be one of the final eight teams in 2014 despite losing Ray Rice for the season, and Justin Forsett has been more than adequate as the replacement. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is back to being a good postseason quarterback after a year hiatus, taking advantage of Steve Smith's defection from Carolina to pair him up with Torrey Smith, who is the best in the NFL at drawing pass interference penalties on downfield passes. They will need a lot of that against a decent pass defense in New England led by Darelle Revis and Brandon Browner, but the bigger concern is if the Ravens can contain New England's aerial attack. They've had trouble with good passing attacks this year, so Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil need to get after Brady to have a chance. This will be close, so I'm taking the points, but I'm also picking the home team to advance.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Ravens 27

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-11)

Clearly, Russell Wilson's 24-2* record at home in his career (playoffs included) has an impact on the Vegas hotshots. Eleven is a ton of points, but let's consider the situation. These two teams already met once, back in Carolina in Week 8 when both teams were struggling. Since then, both teams have improved. Jonathan Stewart has emerged for Carolina as a great ground threat (he ran for 123 yards and a touchdown last week), and Cam Newton is getting healthier. Carolina's run defense has also improved, and that will be the key to stopping Seattle, since Marshawn Lynch is a freak of nature. I think we're in for a defensive struggle, so I'm taking the points, but there's no way Carolina takes out Seattle at CenturyLink.

*I'm not still bitter or anything.

Prediction: Seahawks 20, Panthers 13

Sunday Games

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (-6)

This is the other game that could see a home favorite lose outright. Quick note on the Dallas-Detroit game: Yes, the Cowboys should have been penalized on that one 3rd-and-1 play where Anthony Hitchens held Brandon Pettigrew. That said, Jim Caldwell was way too conservative and should have gone for it on 4th-and-1. Whether it would have made a difference, we can't ever be sure. Either way, Detroit had chances and couldn't take advantage. Also, they got to have their thug play, so they need to quit whining. Anyway... I'll avoid the Ice Bowl comparisons because that was a long time ago. Things have changed. Dallas has avoided the 8-8 specter of recent years with the legs of DeMarco Murray, but Murray has logged over 400 carries in 17 games this season. At some point, you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank since we don't see backs carry the ball that many times in a season. Dallas needs him to move the ball to control the clock, but he's going up against a Green Bay defense that has improved as the season has gone on. Tony Romo can sling the ball around a little bit, but he needs to continue to play smart like he has the entire 2014 season. Turnovers will put an iffy defense out on the field, and that will not bode well for the Cowboys. Ultimately, this will be a good game, but at some point, the Dallas defense will bite on a Lacy run fake, the Packers' offensive line will keep a clean pocket, Jordy Nelson will make a beautiful double move on somebody in the Dallas secondary, and that Aaron Rodgers guy will loft a rainbow right into his waiting arms are he waltzes untouched into the end zone. Dagger.

Prediction: Packers 28, Cowboys 21

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-7)

This Colts team went into Denver at the beginning of the season and gave Peyton Manning a game before ultimately losing to the Broncos 31-24. Denver has started to look different in recent weeks, however. C.J. Anderson has emerged as a major piece of the Denver offense as Peyton Manning came back down to earth from his ridiculous 2013 season. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck slung the ball around a ton this season and led the NFL with 40 touchdowns. He might have a tougher time of that this week, as the Broncos actually have one of the better pass defenses in the league, and the Colts have virtually no run game to speak of unless Boom Herron can get a little something going. Ultimately, I think the balance Denver has becomes too much and we get another Brady-Manning duel, just as God and nature intended.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Colts 19

Record So Far
Lucas: 125-133 (1-3 last week)