NFL Wild Card Preview

Happy 2015! I hope your 2014 was full of wonderful moments and memories, and that your 2015 will have more of the same!

With the NFL playoffs fast approaching, I want to run through all of the upcoming games this weekend. Much like last year, a lot of people are up in arms about the format of the playoffs, especially that a team with a losing record gets to host a playoff game. I'll say what I said last year: Win your division, get a home game. If you didn't do well enough to win your division, focus on that, not on the supposed "injustices" of the system.

Each game is accompanied by a line from Vegas Insider, which will be taken as close to posting time as possible. This means another 11 games of picking against the spread, something I did not do well in 2014. I did, however, do enough to beat Adam in the Pigskin Pick 'Em. Going in, I needed to tie him to hang on, and it didn't look good after the noon games. Then the Packers got Matthew Stafford to intentionally ground a pass and the Cardinals gave the 49ers a good game and I was able to hang on by a game. The sanctity of COAS is secure for another year.

Let's look at this weekend's slate.



Saturday Games

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

This is the main game people are complaining about with regards to the playoff system. I still think the whining is pointless; this is only the second time that a team with a losing record has made the postseason. Plus, the last time this happened, that team won its playoff game! Sure, maybe home field played a factor, but this is the NFL. Take care of business in the regular season, or shut up. As for the game itself, I kind of feel bad for Arizona. They started out strong this season, riding a great defense and the arm of Carson Palmer to a 9-1 start. Then Palmer went down, and the team did all right with Drew Stanton under center... and then he got hurt, forcing Ryan Lindley into the lineup. Not helping is the lack of a solid run game. They can keep games fairly close with their defense, and they'll need to in this one. Carolina has been getting better as the season has gone on, and Cam Newton is recovering from his car accident a few weeks back. With Jonathan Stewart re-emerging as the go-to back and Kelvin Benjamin providing something of a threat at wide receiver, the Panthers should have a slight edge here. Maybe not a touchdown's worth, but still. I don't trust Ryan Lindley to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Panthers 17, Cardinals 13

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

One of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL gets a playoff date. The Ravens actually came close to missing out on the playoffs for the second straight year, but mounted a second half comeback last week against Cleveland to sneak in. I feel like this team is a far cry from where they were two years ago when they won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, this Steelers team exceeded my expectations, riding the legs of Le'Veon Bell and the speed of Antonio Brown to the AFC North title. The home team won the two matchups between these foes during the regular season, though the matchup in Pittsburgh was the more recent of the two. The Ravens are a little more banged up on defense at this point, but Bell is doubtful as of posting time for this game, a big blow to the Steelers. That means they'll have to rely on Roethlisberger-to-Brown, which in the grand scheme of things, isn't a bad thing. Give me the home team laying the points.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Ravens 16

Sunday Games

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)

The Colts took advantage of those four games against the Titans and Jaguars en route to another AFC South title, and get the third AFC North team to make the tournament. The lack of a prime time slot is good for the Bengals, as historically, Andy Dalton (save the Week 16 game against Denver) has not been good then. Daytime has worked out fairly well for him though. A.J. Green is questionable as of posting time, and his presence is important for the Bengals, especially with the Colts secondary. It's even more important when you consider that the Colts won their regular season matchup 27-0. While I doubt the result will be exactly the same, it has to have some merit here, especially in Indy. That, and I trust Andrew Luck more than I trust Andy Dalton.

Prediction: Colts 28, Bengals 24

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

The Lions got an incredible break on Tuesday when the thug Ndamukong Suh inexplicably won his appeal with the NFL to overturn his one-game suspension for stepping on Aaron Rodgers. I maintain that this thug needs to be banned from the NFL for life for... well, being a thug (Random aside: you know this has to be the case when my dad, who is very easy-going and doesn't seem to hate a lot of people, tells me he hates Suh for being a "classless thug"). Anyway, his presence alone is a big help for the top run defense in the NFL, but how good are they really? The supposedly vaunted unit is coming off their worst performance of the season after allowing Green Bay to pick up 152 yards on the ground last week, including Eddie Lacy being the first guy this season to break 100 yards against this group. The Lions' punishment for doing so? Getting to face DeMarco Murray and one of the best offensive lines in football. Tony Romo had an excellent year for the Cowboys as well, and I have a hard time seeing the Lions containing them without committing penalty after penalty. Meanwhile, this is a Lions offense that has struggled compared to recent years. Calvin Johnson is healthy and definitely a threat, but their run game really hasn't gotten going despite promise of bringing balance to their attack. Ultimately though, I look at this game as Murray running roughshod over the Lions (and hopefully runs over Suh at some point). Should make for a fun division game this way.

Prediction: Cowboys 35, Lions 20

Record So Far
Lucas: 124-132 (8-8 last week)