Once More Unto the Breach

With the conclusion of last night's CCIW games, we've completed one run through the Gauntlet. Due to the double round robin format of regular season play, the eight teams that make up the Gauntlet must run it one more time, traveling to the schools they hosted and welcoming in the teams whose lairs they invaded earlier.

Today, I'm going to look back at my preseason predictions, and then I'm going to run through the standings of each conference and take a look at where NCC stands in each, plus take a look at the second half of conference play and how it bodes for the postseason.


Women's Basketball

Before the season started, I had NCC pegged for a 15-10 campaign that would result in them sneaking into the conference tournament. I say sneaking because once again, the coaches in the CCIW gave this team no respect coming into the year. Of course, I don't think really anyone saw this coming. The Cardinals won their first 13 games, a program record for a start to the season, that included a thrilling double overtime win to clinch the Tip Off Tournament Championship, a comeback from down 19 to win by 12, a five game road trip that included a two game California swing that prompted me to start making noise about a spot in the Top 25, and that was all before CCIW play began.

This team then shocked most of the CCIW, though the conference has been a little wonky so far this season. Of the teams picked to make the tournament, only the top two are sitting in position to make it right now (as seen in the grey column, where ties are broken by the first tiebreaker: head to head wins). I think we're all surprised to see the fall of Illinois Wesleyan, a program that won the national title in 2012. Truth be told, I continue to think Carthage is overrated (partially because they lost pretty much their entire backcourt from last year), but they're right in the thick of the race. I figured Wheaton would be taking the top spot, and they have, seeing as how they are responsible for the lone blemish on North Central's record. What's encouraging about that loss is, after winning their first four games against The System by an average of 40 points, the Cardinals only lost by 14 in their first meeting and playing Wheaton very tough well into the second half. Several other teams in conference have played the Cardinals tough, as NCC had to overcome Wesleyan slowing down the game in the CCIW opener and come back from down nine in the second half against Elmhurst. They survived tough efforts from Augustana and North Park on the road, yet blew out the current third and fourth seeds in the conference in Millikin and Carthage.

The second half of conference play is going to be tougher than the first. Even with a down year, the trip to Wesleyan is always tough (though the Cardinals won there last season), and Millikin and Carthage get home games to try to avenge their blowout losses. The most important game of the second half, however, is Saturday's rematch with Wheaton. The Cardinals need it to eliminate the head to head tiebreaker and go deeper into the tiebreaking list. Barring a collapse, the Cardinals should be seeing at least one extra game this season, and probably more. Let's say the Cardinals split their remaining road games, and win two of three at home in the second half. That's 21-4, with a 10-4 CCIW record. That should get them into the conference tournament and give them a strong shot at an at large bid should they not get the automatic bid. If we're lucky, maybe Merner will get to host the conference tournament.

Men's Basketball

I wasn't super optimistic about the men this season, figuring that they would need a little time to gel. Instead, they went on a tear in their non conference schedule, losing only to #7 Dickinson during a tournament in Pennsylvania. That tear continued into conference play, where the Cardinals won their first three games including a great win against Illinois Wesleyan to open conference play. Since then, the team has faltered, dropping three of their last four, including home losses to the top two teams in the conference, losing their cool in a loss to top ranked Augustana and failed to establish an inside presence in the loss to Elmhurst. This team still has strong potential, as junior transfer Jayme Moten has turned into a nightly Heat Check guy (16.7 PPG while shooting 45.1 percent from three) and the inside duo of Jack Burchett and Charles Rosenberg are still a big threat. Teams have keyed on that though, especially in the Augie and Elmhurst losses.

I don't envy their second half schedule either. They have to go to Wesleyan, Augie and Elmhurst in the second half, though they get a chance to avenge getting blown out by North Park on Senior Night in a few weeks. Ultimately, those road games are going to be the key to determine just how deep of a run the Cardinals will make. They've already exceeded the 13 win prediction I had for them this year, but to really make this season a success, a trip to the conference tournament is key. At 4-3, they're at a crossroads. Since the CCIW shrunk to eight teams when Carroll left in 1992:

• 15 CCIW teams have finished 8-6 in conference, 13 have made the tournament (Wheaton in '94 and Carthage in '05 did not).
• 16 CCIW teams have finished 7-7 in conference, five have made the tournament ('93 Millikin, '95 Augustana, '98 Wheaton, '00 Millikin, '04 Carthage).
• In 2011, Carthage finished 9-5 in conference and missed the tournament (Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan also finished 9-5 and did make it).
• Millikin in 1995 and Wheaton in 2002 finished 6-8 in conference and made the tournament.

Pretty much what we're saying here is that the Cardinals need to go at least 4-3 in the second half. This means they need to take care of business at home in the second half, and if they can steal a road win, even better. Carthage is right on their heels at 3-4 in conference. I think the Cardinals will play well enough in the second half to stay in the tournament, but they're in danger of dropping out of the Top 25, which endangers their shot at the NCAA Tournament.