NFL Championship Round Preview

It was a good weekend overall in the NFL playoffs. Despite some controversy with the officiating (some completely unfounded, some other also unfounded as any ire should be directed at the rules committee), it was a great weekend. We also saw tradition continue, as one home favorite lost outright. It wasn't one I figured would happen, which is bad for my record, but good for my fandom. I got three of the four winners right, but finished at .500 for the week against the spread.

Speaking of the spread, that information is being taken from Vegas Insider as close to posting time as possible. Let's preview the games.


NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

First things first: here's a microcosm of my thoughts from late in the Green Bay-Dallas game around the time Dez Bryant made the catch that wasn't.

Holy crap, what a catch by Dez.
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) January 11, 2015

The way that ball popped at the end... I dunno.
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) January 11, 2015

I do doubt they overturn it though.
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) January 11, 2015

Holy crap, McCarthy got away with it!
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) January 11, 2015

By the letter of the rule, the officials got the call right. That said, I don't like the rule. It's tough to find another way to phrase it though that doesn't make it ambiguous and moves where the line has been drawn. I don't know. I wouldn't have had a problem had they let the call stand, but I maintain that they got the call correct, at least according to the (bad) rule. As such, Green Bay gets a chance for revenge from Week 1.

The question now just becomes: how easily can they get that revenge? In Week 1, Green Bay had a rookie center making his first career start and lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga to injury early in the game, which definitely turned the tide. Bulaga is healthy now, and rookie Corey Linsley has improved as the year has gone on. There are two big doubts that I have with this game, however. One is Aaron Rodgers, who is playing with a torn calf muscle. Even at about 70 percent, he's been better than most other quarterbacks in the league, but he's nowhere near as mobile as he usually is, which will be a problem against Seattle's defense. The other issue is on defense. Green Bay is playing pretty well against the pass this year, but against the run... there are some problems. They started well against DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys last week before Murray started to do a little more damage as the game went on. Marshawn Lynch can be a nightmare for the Green Bay run defense and keep Rodgers off the field. As much as I hate to say it... while I think the Packers have a chance going into Seattle, I think the Seahawks will just be too much to overcome.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Packers 16

AFC Championship

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-6.5)

Indy makes the AFC title game for the first time since Peyton Manning left, and of course it ends up being against Brady and the Patriots. Third year quarterback Andrew Luck has thrown a few too many picks, but has done enough to help get his team this far despite a subpar running game. Daniel Herron was pretty good last week, and will need to be again to give the Colts some semblance of balance against New England's defense. I think part of this game will come down to the corners; New England's Brandon Browner and Darelle Revis have been instrumental in New England's continued dominance in the AFC, while Vontae Davis has been a godsend in the Indy secondary. The big question for the Colts defense is whether or not they can contain Rob Gronkowski up the middle. Ultimately, I'm not sure they can. Andrew Luck throws one too many interceptions, Brady and company take advantage, and Darth Hoodie's charges get back to the big game for another crack at trophy number four.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 24

Record So Far
Lucas: 127-135 (2-2 last week)