COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 11

We're up and at it again!

After consistently good weeks, I finally stumbled in Week 10 action. Yet somehow, I still ended up with a better record than Adam. It was another close split in disputed games, with me ending up taking four of the seven and extending my lead to 13 games with seven weeks to go. Obviously, that's not safe, since Adam could theoretically take a couple games off the top here and there and steal the season win in Week 17. Can he get the comeback started this week? Before we find out, Adam tells me he has a new strategy for the week:

"This is opposite week.  I am going to state my pick, explain my pick, but actually go the opposite way.  If I had done that all season, I would be killing it right now.  For example, Thursday night, I like Miami to cover.  I will explain why, but I will actually pick the Bills on ESPN."

To be fair, he did do an entire series of picks based solely on cheerleaders and went 8-5 doing so. Can't hurt to try something else.

We only have four byes this week, so there are 14 games to choose from. Adam and I disagree on a whopping ten of them. I'm curious to see how his strategy this week works. If it does, he could narrow that 13 game gap quite a bit.

Thursday Night

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-5.5)
Lucas: Bills. Pretty sure Joe Philbin is still trying to pick up the pieces of Cortland Finnegan.

Adam: Dolphins Bills. I like Miami in this spot, playing well and at home. The whole team seems to be gelling together very nicely.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
Lucas: Panthers. The Falcons aren't sacking Cam Newton nine times. Hell, they'll be lucky to get to him twice.
Adam: Panthers Falcons. I have said it before and I will say it again: the lines sometime surprise me.  Or maybe I am just holding out hope that Carolina, like my Bears, is not better on paper that it is on the field. But 1.5 seems low for a the Panthers at home.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I resisted the urge to rub the annihilation at Lambeau Field Sunday night in people's faces, because it was just embarrassing. Now that we're starting a new week? I'm rubbing in my favorite stat from 2014. And I'm not apologizing.

Adam: Bears Vikings  Bears. Coming back home after an absolute embarrassment up at arch rival Green Bay. But I think they bounce back in a big way… once Trestman has a chance to look at the tapes he should be able to whip this team back into shape… *shakes head in disappointment*… *changes pick back to Bears* …never mind.
Lucas note:

Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Lucas: Saints. Will someone please tell Jimmy Graham you can't push off on a guy to establish position? Not that it'll matter this week.

Adam: Saints Bengals. Saints at home and against a banged up and disappointing Bengals team. At least the Bengals are coming off a bye; that may help.

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Lucas: Texans. Taking the points just in case J.J. Watt returns to ridiculousness again.
Adam: Texans Browns. Maybe this will be the week that Fitzpatrick and Andre Johnson light it up… or maybe this is the week Gordon comes back… I like my chances with the Texans.

Denver Broncos @ St. Louis Rams (+9.5)
Lucas: Broncos. The Rams have been pretty competitive all year. Problem is, they haven't faced anyone the caliber of Peyton Manning yet.
Adam: Rams Broncos. I actually think this is a pretty hard game to pick. The Rams have a solid D that could gum up Manning's passing, I mean look what they have done with some other solid teams.  With this line and the Rams D, I am taking the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs (-0.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Seattle looked great last week against the Giants, but first, it was the Giants, and second, it was at home. This week they have to travel so they're two hours ahead of their body clocks. That factor, combined with playing in the raucous environment of Arrowhead, makes me pick KC, even though I'm a little surprised by this line.
Adam: Chiefs Seahawks. Pretty much a toss-up. Seattle showed what it could do last weekend when Lynch gets into beast mode. But KC also has Charles who can go crazy just as easily. I like KC at home.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (+4.5)
Lucas: 49ers. When I first started writing this week's post, I accidentally put the "San Francisco Giants". Though let's be honest, Madison Bumgarner would be a good quarterback... you know, as long as he stays the hell away from Rex Ryan.

Adam: 49ers Giants. Giants held close to the Seahawks last weekend, but not well enough; Eli is just not that good. And when you throw in about 15 straight drops again from his receivers it just does not work.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-6.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Question, Bears fans: If you had to choose between these two tandems and only these two tandems... Lovie/McCown or Trestman/Cutler?
Adam. Redskins Buccaneers. The Bucs should be getting Martin back this week, which means one of my predictions from last week, Rainey, will not get much work. But overall, I think Washington is a much better team now that RG3 is back under center.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-10.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I know, I know... it's the Raiders. But the Chargers don't deserve to be double digit favorites over anybody right now.
Adam: Raiders Chargers. Take the points (which in reversi land actually means lay the points).

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
Lucas: Lions. This is going to be a good, old-fashioned defensive battle we don't see much of anymore. That said, I'm picking Detroit because Matthew Stafford > Drew Stanton. 
Adam: Cardinals Lions. I know that Palmer is out this week (or is it the rest of the season?)... regardless he is not playing today.  I would look for backup Stanton to target 1st year WR Brown a ton.  Prediction - 10-150-2. 
Adam note: Bold, I know. Anyway, I gave 2 predations last week, missed on both, so that puts me at 3.5-6.5.
Lucas note: Solid prediction going with the starting quarterback/rookie wideout tandem going forward, seeing as Palmer tore his ACL. Question, though. Since it's Opposite Week... if you get this right, do you actually get it wrong...?

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I really can't shake the feeling that Mark Sanchez is going to do some damage here, and Aaron Rodgers probably isn't going to throw for six touchdowns in a half again.
Adam: Eagles Packers. I hate the Packers.
Lucas note: ...I can't resist.

Sunday Night

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Normally I'd bet on the Colts at home, but not with Tom Brady destroying everyone. Especially not when I'm getting a couple points.
Adam: Patriots Colts. Wow, I think we could see 700+ yds and 8 TDs through the air combined between these two QBs. What this really comes down to is who do I think will win. I like Brady and Gronk more than Luck and Hilton.

Monday Night

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans (+5.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I have to assume losing to the freaking Jets was something of a fluke. 
Adam: Steelers Titans. Any chance they could flip-flop this game with the Sunday night game?  Or reallyany other game.  While I think the Titans stay in sight, I don’t think they will be able to move the ball against the Steelers D.

Records So Far
Lucas: 81-64 (6-7 last week)
Adam: 68-77 (5-8 last week)