2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Edition

My weekend has officially begun! As my gift to you: bracket time.

Some chaos ensued this weekend, though there wasn't a lot in the college ranks. Even so, I need to update the numbers and check to see who would make the playoffs.

Differing from the College Football Playoff, whose rankings have been somewhat consistent with those on here, the Death to the BCS Playoffs is a 16-team playoff made up of the ten conference champions and filled out with six at-large teams. So how do we decide these teams? With metrics.

To loosely figure out how well teams are scheduling games out of conference, I use Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) as one metric. The higher the number, the "tougher" the schedule was (basically, more road games and/or "Power" conference opponents are good). The more useful self-designed metric I use are First and Second Degree Playoff Points (PP1 and PP2), which shows how good each team was, and how good the teams they beat are. Then, because I don't want to monopolize the rankings myself, I use a pair of margin-of-victory-included computer rankings developed by the late David Rothman (ROTH) and Jeff Sagarin (SAG).

If you want to refer back to last week's rankings, you can view them here. Let's update the numbers.

1. Ohio State (10-1, Big Ten "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 57, PP2- 24.6, ROTH- 16, SAG- 11 (LW: 3)
2. Florida State (11-0, ACC "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 57, PP2- 21.2, ROTH- 10, SAG- 16 (LW: 2) 
3. Alabama (10-1, SEC "Champion"): NCSS- 3, PP1- 53, PP2- 24.7, ROTH- 1, SAG- 1 (LW: 1)  
4. Oregon (10-1, Pac 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 52, PP2- 23.4, ROTH- 5, SAG- 4 (LW: 4)
5. UCLA (9-2, At Large): NCSS- 6, PP1- 58, PP2- 26.3, ROTH- 14, SAG- 15 (LW: 7) 
6. Mississippi State (10-1, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 50, PP2- 21.3, ROTH- 2, SAG- 5 (LW: 5) 
7. Marshall (11-0, Conference USA "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 45, PP2- 13.5, ROTH- 24, SAG- 34 (LW: 8)  
8. Georgia (9-2, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 47, PP2- 23.7, ROTH- 7, SAG- 2 (LW: 9)
9. Baylor (9-1, Big 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 37, PP2- 15.9, ROTH- 4, SAG- 3 (LW: 10)
10. TCU (9-1, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 42, PP2- 18.8, ROTH- 3, SAG- 8 (LW: 11)
11. Boise State (9-2, At Large): NCSS- 6, PP1- 50, PP2- 20.0, ROTH- 38, SAG- 38 (LW: 12)
12. Michigan State (9-2, At Large): NCSS- 4, PP1- 43, PP2- 16.4, ROTH- 18, SAG- 10 (LW: NR)
13. Colorado State (10-1, Mountain West "Champion"): NCSS- 5, PP1- 39, PP2- 12.9, ROTH- 37, SAG- 46 (LW- 13) 
14. Memphis (8-3, American Athletic "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 27, PP2- 9.5, ROTH- 51, SAG- 44 (LW: 14)
15. Northern Illinois (9-2, MAC "Champion"): NCSS- 7, PP1- 28, PP2- 10.8, ROTH- 75, SAG- 80 (LW: 15)
16. Georgia Southern (8-3, Sun Belt "Champion"): NCSS- 7, PP1- 25, PP2- 7.6, ROTH- 83, SAG- 78 (LW: 16) 

Out of the Playoffs: Ole Miss (6)

Photo by Spruce Durden (USA TODAY Sports)

There was very little turnover this week. Only one conference "championship" changed hands, and that happened because Baylor caught up to TCU in games played, and Baylor holds the three-way tiebreaker with TCU and Kansas State. Meanwhile, the only at large team that I decided was eligible to drop was Ole Miss following their third loss, and considering I have seven teams with two losses eligible.

Kansas State has a pretty good argument, but for right now they have the fewest PP1 at 37. This is because they have two games left, while everyone else only has one. KSU's big game is against Baylor in two weeks, so keep that in mind; it will have major implications. That leaves half a dozen 9-2 teams to battle for one spot.

Playoff points and computer rankings are so similar that at this point I'm looking specifically at resumes. I even considered dropping Boise State out of the playoffs too, considering their "best" loss is to a team no longer in the playoffs. However, they beat a Colorado State team that is a conference "champion", and it's the Rams' lone loss. I'll keep them in. Looking at resumes of the other teams, Wisconsin, Missouri and Georgia Tech have bad losses on their resumes that are knocking them out of at-large spots for now, but all three teams are in position to tentatively play for conference titles in a couple weeks.

Photo by Mike Mulholland (MLive.com)

That leaves both Arizona schools and Michigan State. Of the original two loss schools I was looking at, I've already dropped out the leaders in PP1, but the teams left aren't far behind. Looking at overall numbers, I came to one clear conclusion: Michigan State. The Spartans were in the middle in PP1 and trailed in PP2, but had better computer rankings, and both of their losses are to playoff teams. Both Arizona schools have UCLA losses on their resume, but one other loss that doesn't look as "good".

Photo by Chris Russell (Columbus Dispatch)

That filled out the field, but I'm sure a lot of you question my decision at the top. Ohio State as my number one seed?! They're tied for second in the FBS in PP1 with Florida State, and while FSU is undefeated, they've had a lot of struggles. The obvious counterargument there is "Virginia Tech", and it's an argument that continues to gain ground as the year goes on. Ohio State has an equal number of PP1 despite fewer wins (which also translates to its higher PP2), and the computer rankings are all but equal. To me, I'm going with Ohio State beating one playoff team (Michigan State), while Florida State has no such win on its resume. FSU still gets three home games with this setup, however.

SEC people now are probably angry at my dropping Alabama, but that's what you get for playing an FCS team so late in the year. Ohio State and Florida State beat better teams this week. I almost moved Oregon ahead as well, but Alabama has a lead in every single metric, and this is a season-long measure. Plus, that makes for a more fun semifinal if you ask me. UCLA gets a big bump from its big wins and nation-leading PP1, jumping a one-loss team and undefeated Marshall, who because of their unblemished mark gets a home game in the first round.

Baylor and TCU each moved up a slot this week with Ole Miss losing, but they're still hitting the road in the first round. While they have fantastic computer rankings, their Playoff Points totals don't coincide with those rankings. As the SEC continues to fall apart and we get some separation in the Pac-12, whoever wins that conference will likely move up (plus there's that Kansas State-Baylor game looming). Boise State remains ahead of the champion of its conference based on the weird tiebreaker that will be broken next week (they play Utah State, which will break up the three team log jam), and the Broncos currently hold the tiebreaker over Colorado State due to their head to head win. Michigan State falls in just ahead of those conference champions because of their higher Playoff Point numbers and computer rankings.

At this point, one conference championship game has been determined: the ACC title game between Florida State and Georgia Tech will be on Saturday, December 6th at an undetermined time. At a quick glance, I counted a total of three other division titles that have been clinched. The rest will be sorted out on Saturday.

Check back tomorrow morning when I take another belated look at the college schedule (I'll overshoot a MAC game, but one that has no impact on the playoffs) and look at what should be a much better week of non-conference games.