Monday, November 10, 2014

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 11

It's November 10th. Do you know where your team lies?

With another week in the books, more chaos has unfolded and changed the playoff picture. But to what degree did it change? That's what I'm here to find out after putting together the results from the past week.

The Week 11 College Football Playoff Selection Committee wound up agreeing with my Top Four, though the order was switched around a little bit. With some losses, changes are going to be made on a pretty large scale.

Before we get to any looks at the bracket, we need to run the numbers. Most of Week 11's action stayed within conference boundaries, save for a handful of games. Last week saw the first team cross 40 First Degree Playoff Points, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more teams cross that threshold today. We may also see another team cross over the 20 mark on Second Degree Playoff Points. We'll have to see.

In case you need a refresher, or if you're new to the process of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, you can view a summary of how Playoff Points work here. The short of it is, if you're familiar with how the IHSA sets up its field, this system is similar.

Let's run the numbers.


American Athletic
Wins: 3.82 (11th; LW: 10th)
PP1: 10.00 (9th; LW: 10th)
PP2: 6.18 (9th; LW: 9th)

ACC
Wins: 5.50 (T-3rd; LW: T-3rd)
PP1: 20.57 (3rd; LW: 3rd)
PP2: 11.73 (3rd; LW: 2nd)

Big 10
Wins: 5.50 (T-3rd; LW: T-3rd)
PP1: 20.07 (4th; LW: 4th)
PP2: 11.53 (4th; LW: 5th)

Big XII
Wins: 5.30 (5th; LW: 5th)
PP1: 19.30 (5th; LW: 6th)
PP2: 12.24 (2nd; LW: 3rd)

Conference USA
Wins: 4.54 (8th; LW: 8th)
PP1: 13.77 (8th; LW: 8th)
PP2: 7.97 (7th; LW: 8th)

Independents
Wins: 4.75 (7th; LW: 6th)
PP1: 18.00 (6th; LW: 5th)
PP2: 9.62 (6th; LW: 6th)

MAC
Wins: 4.08 (9th; LW: 9th)
PP1: 9.69 (10th; LW: 9th)
PP2: 5.02 (10th; LW: 10th)

Mountain West
Wins: 4.92 (6th; LW: 7th)
PP1: 15.00 (7th; LW: 7th)
PP2: 7.82 (8th; LW: 7th)

Pac 12
Wins: 5.75 (2nd; LW: 2nd)
PP1: 22.33 (2nd; LW: 2nd)
PP2: 11.35 (5th; LW: 4th)

SEC
Wins: 6.07 (1st; LW: 1st)
PP1: 26.21 (1st; LW: 1st)
PP2: 14.10 (1st; LW: 1st)

Sun Belt
Wins: 3.91 (10th; LW: 11th)
PP1: 8.18 (11th; LW: 11th)
PP2: 2.45 (11th; LW: 11th)

Note: While I round all numbers to the nearest hundredth for the purpose of convenience, the Big Ten and ACC have identical win numbers among their members. 


Photo by Chris Graythen
Overall, the SEC remained in first place despite the couple of FCS games limiting their gains this week. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt got out of the Triple Basement and passed the American Athletic Conference in average wins (blame SMU). For the most part, the rankings have remained the same; that tie between the ACC and Big Ten will probably remain until the final week, when we get some ACC-SEC matchups. In terms of overall leaders, six teams have at least 40 PP1; three are from the SEC (Alabama and both Mississippi schools), two are in the Pac 12 (Oregon and UCLA), and Florida State in the ACC. Ten other schools have at least 30 PP1. In terms of PP2, Auburn still leads the nation as the only school with over 20, but several schools are into double figures now. If you want to see how each school stacks up individually, you can view my spreadsheet here.

Photo by Thomas Boyd (The Oregonian)
With the numbers now in front of you, my question is this. Sixteen teams make the Death to the BCS Playoffs: the ten conference champions and six at-large teams. The current conference "champions" are kind of de facto champions used as temporary placeholders, but if the season ended today, those placeholders would get the automatic bids. From there, who else should fill out the bracket? And how should they be seeded? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

I'm going to run these numbers, plus some independent rankings, and come back this afternoon with a decision as to who would make the playoffs if the season ended today. Check back later to find out who!

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