2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Edition

The first November bracket is ready.

As we get more evidence from the college football season, in theory you'd have more of an argument for certain teams to make the postseason. With all the chaos that's gone on, this was probably my toughest bracket to build yet.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their first batch of rankings on Tuesday, and I was pretty impressed. Our top six matched, though not in the same order, and of their Top 25, 12 of their teams were also in the Death to the BCS Playoffs. They ranked some teams higher than teams I had in, but there weren't any teams on their list that I didn't consider to some degree. Their new batch will be out tomorrow, and we can compare that then.

As for selecting the Death to the BCS Playoffs field, the requirements are a little less stringent, since 16 teams make it. All ten conference champions receive the automatic bids, and I fill out the bracket with six at-large teams. To decide the participants and their seeds, I use a lot of math. Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) loosely determines how hard of a schedule outside of their league each team gave itself. This is a minor stat compared to First Degree (PP1) and Second Degree (PP2) Playoff Points, which helps determine how good a team you really are based on who you beat, and who the teams you beat beat. To keep myself from being biased, I also include computer rankings using formulas written by Jeff Sagarin (SAG) and the late David Rothman (ROTH) to balance it out.

Drumroll, please. Let's unveil the updated field if the season ended today.

1. Mississippi State (8-0, SEC "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 42, PP2- 16.3, ROTH- 1, SAG- 5 (LW: 1)  
2. Auburn (7-1, At Large): NCSS- 5, PP1- 38, PP2- 20.4, ROTH- 2, SAG- 1 (LW: 3)  
3. Florida State (8-0, ACC "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 34, PP2- 13.3, ROTH- 9, SAG- 13 (LW: 4) 
4. Oregon (8-1, Pac 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 36, PP2- 14.8, ROTH- 10, SAG- 7 (LW: 6)    
5. Ole Miss (7-2, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 36, PP2- 17.4, ROTH- 3, SAG- 3 (LW: 2) 
6. Alabama (7-1, At Large): NCSS- 4, PP1- 30, PP2- 13.7, ROTH- 4, SAG- 2 (LW: 5)
7. Michigan State (7-1, Big Ten "Champion"): NCSS-4, PP1- 28, PP2- 10.4, ROTH- 13, SAG- 11 (LW: 8) 
8. Notre Dame (7-1, At Large): NCSS- 16, PP1- 28, PP2- 12.0, ROTH- 19, SAG- 16 (LW: 9) 
9. UCLA (7-2, At Large): NCSS- 6, PP1- 33, PP2- 14.1, ROTH- 20, SAG- 24 (LW: NR)
10. Marshall (8-0, Conference USA "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 24, PP2- 6.5, ROTH- 21, SAG- 36 (LW: 7) 
11. Colorado State (8-1, Mountain West "Champion"): NCSS- 5, PP1- 28, PP2- 9.5, ROTH- 34, SAG- 46 (LW- NR)
12. Nebraska (8-1, At Large): NCSS- 4, PP1- 27, PP2- 10.5, ROTH- 18, SAG- 17 (LW: 10)
13. Kansas State (7-1, Big 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 25, PP2- 10.3, ROTH- 6, SAG- 10 (LW: 12)
14. Central Florida (5-3, American Athletic "Champion"): NCSS- 5, PP1- 17, PP2- 9.8, ROTH- 66, SAG- 52 (LW: NR)
15. Toledo (5-3, MAC "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 17, PP2- 9.2, ROTH- 75, SAG- 65 (LW: 15)
16. Georgia Southern (7-2, Sun Belt "Champion"): NCSS- 5, PP1- 13, PP2- 2.0, ROTH- 71, SAG- 72 (LW: 16)

Out of the Playoffs: Arizona (11), Boise State (13), East Carolina (14)

Photo by John Geliebter (USA TODAY Sports)

This was a weird one to put together. Boise State had a bye, which actually allowed Colorado State to overtake them for first place. Let's keep in mind that in order for the Rams to keep this spot in the official tournament, they have to win out and Boise State has to lose at least one more game because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. This one wasn't bad; East Carolina falling out was. With their loss (their first in American Athletic play), there's a five-team log jam at the top of the conference. Running through the numbers, Central Florida has the best PP1 and PP2, and were ranked fairly highly compared anyone else in the tie other than Memphis, but the Tigers didn't have anywhere near the resume to top UCF.

Arizona's loss also bumped them out of an at-large berth despite their 12.8 PP2. I almost knocked Nebraska out as well, despite their 8-1 record. Ohio State has a great argument at 7-1, tied with Michigan State for the Big Ten East lead. Problem is, their one loss is to a Virginia Tech team that really isn't that great, while Nebraska's lone loss is to Michigan State, so they stayed.

Photo by Stephen Dunn (Getty Images)

I have a lot of one-loss teams as good candidates, but I decided to put in a two-loss team: UCLA. The Bruins have tough losses to Oregon and Utah on their resume, but their 33 PP1 is sixth in the FBS, and the computers rank them fairly favorably. I can't keep those kinds of numbers out.

My toughest out: TCU. I feel bad for these guys; their one loss was that collapse against Baylor, and they have decent Playoff Points in both categories and top ten rankings by both computers. Arizona State has 28 PP1 and has a decent argument too, but they have that blowout loss to UCLA. I still have to also keep an eye on LSU; they have two losses and beat Ole Miss, contributing to top ten computer rankings as well. I just don't think they have enough PP1 right now though.

As for seeding, we have three conference champions in the Top Four, and this would be my seedings for the College Football Playoff were I on the committee. Ole Miss still has a good resume despite back-to-back losses, so I have them 5th, with Alabama right behind. I kind of feel bad knocking an undefeated Marshall team down so far, but they don't have the resume the teams above them do. Give the chaos some time though; in an ideal world, I'd like to give every undefeated team at least one home game. On the plus side, there are no first round rematches in sight, something I try to avoid if possible.

That's it for this week. Check back tomorrow when I take a look at the non-conference slate for Week 11.