NBA Finals Preview

I haven't been the most accurate prognosticator when it comes to the NBA this postseason, though I did pick the Heat to come out of the East, and they get a great matchup with the Spurs coming out of the West. I was way off on my Grizzlies prediction there, but that's just a credit to this Spurs team. They should give the Heat a run for their money.

I heard a fun stat earlier this week saying that since Jordan retired the second time, every Finals series has involved either the Spurs, Lakers, or Heat (the lesson, as always: Stern doesn't believe in parity).

By and large, experience here is a wash, since the Spurs have won 4 titles since 1999 with Tim Duncan leading the way and a great supporting cast beside him. This is probably the most complete team in the league, and definitely more so than the Heat, who counter this with the best player in the league right now.

The old adage remains though that you need 8 or 9 guys to win a title. Both these teams certainly have those qualifying supporting casts, it's just a question of which one steps up more. For the Spurs, my eye is on Kawhi Leonard, since he'll probably be guarding LeBron most of the time. Obviously LeBron will get his, but if Leonard can make him work for it while still contributing, say, 10-15 points offensively, he should be good. For the Heat, I wonder who's guarding Duncan, since even at his age he's putting up really good numbers, but the other question is will Chalmers/Cole be able to contain Tony Parker? Parker won the Finals MVP in 2007 after scoring in bunches (granted, Delonte West was guarding him), so if he's effective like that again, the Heat will have some issues.

Ultimately though I think it comes down to the other members or Miami's Big Three. How hurt is Dwyane Wade? If he can put together a decent enough series with a bum knee, that takes a lot of pressure off LeBron. Chris Bosh is probably just as, if not more important though. He needs to crash the boards and hit his open shots. Individuals can only carry a team so far, you need everyone to step up at this stage.

I do still think the Spurs are the better team, but I'm not sold that they can overcome the best player in the league. Begrudgingly, I'm going with the favorites. Heat in seven.

Whoever wins gets to take part in my next big idea that, in two weeks, is going to rock your world.