Friday, December 7, 2018

2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Fast Forward

We interrupt preparations for the 2018 Death to the BCS Playoffs with a blast from the past. So... remember when I said I was cancelling the Death to the BCS Playoffs? I lied.

In early October, I was making my occasional rounds on WhatIfSports to check to see if teams were getting updated. And finally... the 2017 college football teams were there.

This has me encouraged for the upcoming 2018 Death to the BCS Playoffs, but while we wait for that, I wanted to make sure I had some content for the interim. And since the 2017 teams are on there... let's go back in time and resolve the 2017 postseason.

The link above takes you to my post about the 2017 bracket and my rationales for picking who I did, so I'm not going to go too much into the field. But I will go through the process of simulating the playoffs. Normally I go on a week by week basis, but since this should have been played months ago I am simulating the entire postseason in one go.

The simulation process, however, is going to remain largely the same. Higher seeds get home field advantage through the first three rounds, with the title game being played in Pasadena. Weather conditions from the specified game times and dates will be taken into account. In the past, I've used Don Best's handicapping website for making sure injured players aren't in these playoff games, but seeing as we're well past that point his site is useless this season. I will likely just go with the default lineups for this postseason, but I'll try to cross check against bowl game box scores to make sure no one who was out for the year ends up impacting the postseason.

All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com, now that they've finally uploaded this year's teams. So, without any further delay, let's start the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

First Round

12pm Games

Photo by Gwinn Davis (The Post and Courier)
@ (1) Clemson 34, (16) Troy 13
The outcome of this one was never in doubt, with Clemson scoring the first ten points, including a touchdown off an early Troy interception, and put it away by the early third quarter. Tavien Feaster had a monster game, rushing for 153 yards and four touchdowns on only 11 carries to help offset a bad game from Kelly Bryant of 9-21 for 120 yards and a pick. Troy's Brandon Silvers wasn't much better, completing 19 of 35 passes for 231 yards and two interceptions.

@ (7) UCF 30, (10) Notre Dame 12
UCF proved it belonged early in this one despite settling for field goals three times in the first half, allowing just five first downs and forcing one turnover to lead 16-0 at the break, and put it away in the third with a touchdown. The Irish would get a couple garbage time touchdowns to prevent the shutout. McKenzie Milton was good for UCF, completing 17 or 27 passes for 224 yards, two touchdowns, and just one pick while rushing for 32 yards, and the Knights had the ball for almost 40 minutes behind 206 combined rushing yards from their other backs. Brandon Wimbush struggled for the Irish, completing just 10 of 26 passes for 157 yards and a pick, plus 66 yards rushing.

3pm Games

@ (2) Georgia 23, (15) Florida Atlantic 16 (OT)
Photo by Justin Fountain (The Red and Black)
The Owls gave Georgia all they could handle in this one, overcoming an early 10-0 deficit to pull within one by halftime, and grabbing the lead midway through the third quarter. But they couldn't add on, and the Bulldogs climbed back in with a pair of fourth quarter field goals to tie the game. The Owls had a chance to win at the end of regulation, but Greg Joseph's 58 yard try was blocked to force an extra session. Georgia needed just five plays to find the end zone, and Florida Atlantic's response died on fourth and four from the six, sending Georgia onto the quarters. Jake Fromm completed just 14 of 27 passes for 144 yards and the game-winning touchdown, Sony Michel ran 15 times for 91 yards and a touchdown, and Nick Chubb picked up 71 yards on 19 carries. Jason Driskel paced FAU with 110 yards on 15 of 25 passing, while Devin Singletary ran for 106 yards and a score.

@ (8) Auburn 30, (9) Miami (FL) 15
The Hurricanes got reverse-Turnover Chain'd in this one, going -3 in turnover differential, but Auburn didn't start its move until the second quarter, taking a 13-7 lead into the break. The Canes made a run in the third quarter, taking down Jarrett Stidham for a safety and notching a field goal on the ensuing drive to pull within one. But the Tigers made their move in the fourth, getting an early touchdown, trading field goals with the Canes, and picking off Malik Rosier after their field goal to go back up eight, and got a touchdown to finish the contest off. Stidham only threw 13 passes, but completed ten for 156 yards and two scores, while Kerryon Johnson added 91 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and T.D. Moultry had a sack and interception on defense. Rosier struggled, going 16-27 for 162 yards and a touchdown but three interceptions.

6pm Games

@ (3) Oklahoma 44, (14) Toledo 25
Toledo was in this game in the first half, even holding a couple three point leads in the first quarter and tying the game with just under two minutes to go in the first half, but the Sooners followed up with a field goal at the halftime gun for a 20-17 lead. Oklahoma began to pull away late in the third quarter with a long touchdown run and delivered the dagger about six minutes into the fourth. Baker Mayfield went bonkers with 302 yards and three touchdowns on 17 of 26 passing, while Rodney Anderson ran rampant for 201 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. Terry Swanson paced the rockets with three rushing touchdowns, while Logan Woodside went 25-37 for 323 yards and an interception.

(12) Stanford 34, @ (5) Ohio State 24
Photo by Don Feria (isiphotos.com)
The Cardinal were my last team in, and they showed they belong with a huge upset win in Columbus. The Buckeyes actually seemed to be in the driver's seat early, jumping out to a 13-0 lead just five minutes in thanks in part to a Baron Browning pick-six. But the Cardinal followed this up with 20 unanswered points spanning the first through third quarters, trailing by just a field goal at halftime and taking the lead for good late in the third quarter when K.J. Costello hit Dalton Schultz for a six yard touchdown. The Buckeyes pulled back within four early in the fourth, but Stanford all but put it away by returning the ensuing kickoff 90 yards for a touchdown. Ohio State struck back quickly with a touchdown and two point conversion to make it a three point game again, but Stanford put the game out of reach when Costello found Kaden Smith for a five yard touchdown. Costello completed 17 of 31 passes on the day for 254 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, Kaden Smith caught five of those for 121 yards and that dagger touchdown, and Bryce Love ran 24 times for 132 yards for the Cardinal. J.T. Barrett played fairly well for Ohio State, going 11 of 19 for 197 yards and a score and ran for 61 yards, while J.K. Dobbins ran 17 times for 69 yards and a touchdown.

9pm Games

@ (4) Alabama 20, (13) Boise State 17
Photo by John Raoux (AP)
The Broncos couldn't quite pull off the upset here. The teams traded second quarter field goals, though both teams each missed a second field goal in the frame. Boise State grabbed a third quarter lead with a 15 play, 83 yard drive capped by a four yard strike from Brett Rypien to Sean Modster, and held that lead going into the fourth quarter until the Tide made their move. Jalen Hurts found Calvin Ridley for six yard game tying touchdown with ten and a half to play, then on the very next play from scrimmage, Cedrick Wilson lost a fumble, and two plays later Jalen Hurts scrambled into the end zone to take the lead. But the Broncos weren't done, needing just four plays to tie it back up as Robert Mahone scored from four yards out. But the Broncos left way too much time for Alabama, and Hurts drove them 60 yards in 12 plays to set up what proved to be a 22 yard game winning field goal by Andy Papppanastos. Rypien had a solid game in the losing, going 18-27 for 228 yards and a touchdown, while Alexander Mattison ran 20 times for 107 yards and added three catches for 52 yards. Hurts played well, going 14-22 for 171 yards and a touchdown while also rushing 16 times for 40 yards and another score.

@ (6) Wisconsin 42, (11) USC 35
This one was a barnburner down to the end, with Wisconsin not grabbing a lead until less than five minutes left to play. USC grabbed every lead prior to that, but the Badgers were right on them scoring on the ensuing drive every time. The Badgers forced a key punt after tying the game and grabbed the lead with a seven play, 77 yard drive. The Trojans managed to make it to the red zone, but Wisconsin's defense forced a stop, though USC would get one last chance, failing when Sam Darnold had to scramble out of bounds with the clock at zero. Darnold finished his collegiate career 24 of 31 for 338 yards and two touchdowns, while Ronald Jones II ran 22 times for 134 yards and three scores. Alex Hornibrook led the Badgers with 273 yards on 18 of 30 passing with three touchdowns and two picks, Johnathan Taylor ran for 100 yards on 26 carries, Bradrick Shaw had nine carries for 57 yards and two scores, and Chris James accounted for the other touchdown.

Quarterfinals

12pm Game

@ (1) Clemson 23, (8) Auburn 21
Photo by Steve Mitchell (USA TODAY Sports)
This was all-offense early, as Travis Etienne wreaked havoc on the game's opening drive to get Clemson on the board just a minute in, but Auburn answered right back when Kerryon Johnson scored from four yards out. Clemson kept the offense going, converting three straight third downs on their next drive en route to a one yard Kelly Bryant to Tee Higgins touchdown pass, but again Auburn answered as Johnson helped set up a two yard plunge for Kamryn Pettway. Then the defenses found their grooves, with Clemson only getting a couple field goals in the second quarter. Auburn grabbed a one point lead to open the third quarter with Jarrett Stidham finding open guys, including Darius Slayton for a 23 yard touchdown, but the visitors missed a field goal on their next drive and squandered a blocked punt early in the fourth quarter. Clemson finally made them pay on their next drive as Christian Groomes hit from 23 yards out for a 23-21 lead. Auburn had a chance to retake the lead late, but Daniel Carlson missed from 55 yards and Clemson was able to run out the clock. Bryant completed 18 of 28 passes for 217 yards and two scores to lead the hosts to the victory while Etienne had 79 yards rushing and a 21 yard touchdown catch. Stidham led Auburn with 217 yards and a touchdown on 12 of 19 passing, while Kerryon Johnson added 108 yards rushing, 62 yards receiving, and a score.

3pm Game

@ (3) Oklahoma 48, (6) Wisconsin 6
Photo by Jae C. Hong (AP)
After surrendering 35 to the Trojans, Wisconsin got lit up on the road here. Baker Mayfield got the Sooners on the board midway through the first quarter on a three yard strike to Marquise Brown, and the rout was on. Mayfield hit Brown again less than a minute into the second quarter, on the very next play Alex Hornibrook was picked off, and six plays later it was 21-0 Sooners when Rodney Anderson punched it in from a yard out. Wisconsin would get a field goal, but it was 28-3 at halftime and Oklahoma didn't let up. Mayfield finished the day 20-25 for 303 yards and three scores, Anderson ran for 127 yards and a touchdown, Abdul Adams ran for two touchdowns, and Marquise Brown caught all three Mayfield touchdown passes. Hornibrook was not good, completing just 13 of 30 passes for 167 yards and three interceptions for Wisconsin.

6pm Game

@ (2) Georgia 27, (7) UCF 10
Photo by Scott Cunningham (Getty Images)
With about ten seconds until halftime this one was looking pretty good for a UCF team that claimed a 2017 national championship. They'd held the Bulldogs to a pair of field goals, returned a Georgia punt 53 yards for a touchdown and Matthew Wright had just made up for a missed 41 yard field goal by nailing a 43 yarder for a 10-6 lead. But Sony Michel took a handoff on the half's final play 80 yards for a touchdown and the game had completely flipped. Georgia made it a two score game quickly in the second half with a nine play, 78 yard drive to open the third quarter with Nick Chubb scoring from 25 yards out, and Michel added an 18 yard touchdown run on the very next drive to reach our final margin. The Knights would punt from just inside Bulldog territory on the next drive, just on their side of midfield on the next one, and turned it over on downs in the red zone late. Michel ran 14 times for 123 yards and those two touchdowns plus a catch for 22 yards, Chubb added 84 yards and his score on the ground, allowing Jake Fromm to only need 13 completions on 21 throws for 160 yards. McKenzie Milton was all right for UCF, completing 17 of 27 passes for 157 yards, but he managed just 21 yards on the ground.

9pm Game

@ (4) Alabama 27, (12) Stanford 24
Photo by Tony Gutierrez (AP)
Stanford's Cinderella run comes to an end in heartbreaking fashion. The Cardinal actually jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead behind a pair of Bryce Love touchdown runs, but Damien Harris answered the second one with a long touchdown run of his own to cut the Cardinal lead in half, and Bo Scarbrough tied the game midway through the second quarter with a one yard plunge, but Stanford took a 17-14 lead into halftime. They held that lead until late in the third quarter, when Harris broke free again for another long touchdown run. But Stanford answered just over a minute later early in the fourth when K.J. Costello hit Kaden Smith for a 63 yard touchdown and the lead once again. But the Tide made enough plays down the stretch, overcoming an Andy Pappanastos' miss from 50 early in the frame with him tying the game from 29 yards out with just under five minutes to play. The Cardinal were forced to punt about two minutes later, and Alabama just ran down Stanford's throat, moving 75 yards all on the ground and nearly blowing it in the closing seconds when Harris coughed up the ball, but the Tide recovered, setting up a 26 yard game-winner for Pappanastos as time expired. Harris ran 16 times for 203 yards and two scores, Scarbrough had 31 yards rushing and 51 receiving with his rushing touchdown, and Jalen Hurts completed 12 of 17 passes for 254 yards and ran for 15 more (albeit on 19 carries). Costello played fairly well, hitting 15 of 26 passes for 228 yards and a touchdown, while Bryce Love ran 17 times for 120 yards and two scores to lead Stanford.

Semifinals

4pm Game

@ (2) Georgia 31, (3) Oklahoma 26
Photo by Orlin Wagner (AP)
The Bulldogs will get another crack at a national title, but didn't need overtime this time around maybe thanks in part to home field advantage. But early on, it looked like the Sooners would get to go to Southern California as Baker Mayfield ripped apart the Georgia secondary for two touchdown passes in the first seven minutes, and on Georgia's next drive Jake Fromm was picked off. But the Bulldogs made a goal line stand on the ensuing drive and held the Sooners to a field goal on their next opportunity. Then the Bulldogs made their move, with Fromm finding Terry Godwin for 49 yards to set up a four yard strike to Charlie Woerner. Oklahoma tacked on another field goal to effectively make it a two touchdown game and take a 20-7 lead eventually into halftime. But the third quarter was all Georgia, as a Mayfield completion to Marquise Brown was fumbled, the Bulldogs recovered, and Sony Michel rumbled 48 yards for a touchdown to make it a one score game. They took the lead just a few minutes later after forcing a punt on fourth and 15 from their territory when Nick Chubb took one in from 39 yards out. D'Andre Swift kept things up late with a 56 yard run right before the end of the quarter, helping set up a 17 yard strike from Fromm to Akhil Crumpton for a 28-20 lead. Mayfield got a couple big completions on the ensuing drive but had to settle for a field goal. Then Oklahoma's defense came up with a big play, picking off Fromm, but again the Sooners had to settle for three to make it a two point game with about half the final quarter to play. Georgia ran out some of the clock, punted away, then came up with a big turnover on downs deep in Oklahoma territory, allowing for a completely unnecessary last second field goal. Fromm did not have a great day, completing just five of 14 passes for 93 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks while losing five yards on eight carries, but Sony Michel picked him up with 124 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, while Swift added 119 on eight and Chubb finished with 16 for 85. Mayfield was strong in defeat, going 17-28 for 299 yards and two scores while adding 18 yards rushing on 13 carries.

7pm Game

@ (1) Clemson 15, (4) Alabama 13
Photo by Joe Skipper (AP)
The Crimson Tide get a taste of the own postseason medicine as home field advantage proves to be the difference for Clemson. The Tigers were unable to finish drives, but got a couple first quarter field goals for an early 6-0 lead, but the Tide got back into the game, sandwiching another Clemson field goal with two of their own from Andy Pappanostas. Then in the third quarter, Alabama made its move, marching 83 yards in just eight plays capped by a 14 yard Najeh Harris touchdown run for a 13-9 lead. But Pappanostas missed a 48 yarder early in the fourth that would have pushed the lead to seven, and Clemson went down to pull within one on a Christian Groomes 41 yarder with six and a half to play. The Tide nearly ran out the clock on the ensuing drive, getting into Tiger territory and going for it on fourth and seven from Clemson's 34, but Jalen Hurts' pass to Calvin Ridley was a yard short of the line to gain, giving Clemson a chance to escape with a win. And escape they did, as Kelly Bryant overcame a sack leading to third and 15 to find Travis Etienne for 31 yards, followed shortly after by finding Hunter Renfrow for 13 yards on third and 10 to set up Groomes, who nailed a 49 yarder as time expired to send Clemson to Pasadena and snap Alabama's 14 game Death to the BCS Playoff winning streak. Bryant finished 17 of 27 for 244 yards, with those last 44 being the biggest of his career, but ran 22 times for -12 yards and was sacked six times. Etienne had just 12 yards on nine carries, but his 31 yard reception helped set the table for the win. Jalen Hurts wasn't much better, completing just nine of 19 passes for only 91 yards but ran 11 times for 61 yards, Najeh Harris ran ten times for 50 yards and the game's lone touchdown, and Calvin Ridley caught four passes for 70 yards.

Championship

(1) Clemson 34, (2) Georgia 27
Photo by Matt Walsh (The State)
We may have a new meme as Georgia blew an early 24-0 lead and the Tigers follow up their College Football Playoff championship in 2016 with a Death to the BCS title in 2017. But it wasn't easy, as they had no answers early for Sony Michel, who on Georgia's second play from scrimmage got loose for a 76 yard touchdown. He followed that up on the Bulldogs' next drive with a 46 yard touchdown run on a draw on third and four. Jake Fromm kept up the pressure through the air to help set up D'Andre Swift for a 13 yard touchdown run and a 21-0 lead. Clemson got a break on the next drive as they held Georgia to a field goal, and followed that up with one of their own thanks in part to Travis Etienne breaking free for a 62 yard run to set it up. Christian Groomes would add another for the Tigers on their next drive before halftime to make it 24-6. He added another early in the third quarter off a Fromm interception and a 50 yarder later in the quarter to make it a 12 point game. Early in the fourth Clemson made it a one score game when Kelly Bryant found Ray-Ray McCloud for a nine yard touchdown. After going three and out, Georgia finally stopped the bleeding midway through the quarter and added a field goal to make it an eight point game. Clemson started the ensuing drive near midfield, but turned it over on downs. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they went three and out, and Bryant marched the Tigers 90 yards in just under two minutes to tie the game with just under a minute to play when he hit Deon Cain for a six yard touchdown, and Bryant kept it himself on the two point try. Georgia got aggressive to try and win the game, but James Skalski picked off Jake Fromm and took it back to the Georgia 17, and Tavien Feaster took care of the rest on the next play for the seven point lead. The Bulldogs had a chance late thanks to Fromm finding Mecole Hardman for a 42 yard gain, but his final attempt at the Clemson 17 was just out of Hardman's reach, and the Tigers won the national championship. Bryant completed nine of 17 passes for just 81 yards, but two of those completions went for touchdowns, and Bryant added 17 rushes for 51 yards plus his game-tying two point conversion. Travis Etienne ran 11 times for 128 yards, Tavien Feaster had 10 carries for 73 yards, including the championship-winning touchdown, and James Skalski made the key defensive play with his late interception of Fromm. That pick was one of two for Jake Fromm, who finished the day 14 of 26 for 170 yards, two picks, and -19 yards rushing. Clemson spoiled a 13 carry, 158 yard, two touchdown day on the ground for Sony Michel, while Nick Chubb was held to 43 yards on 18 carries.

To see the final bracket, click here.

Photo by Tom Pennington (Getty Images)
I think this may go down as one of the best years of the Death to the BCS Playoffs. Like most years, it was almost all chalk (just one upset by seeding over the course of the 15 games), but by my count nine of the 15 games were really exciting, with only one game being an absolute laughingstock. I just wish we could have actually seen this play out on the field.

So congratulations to the 2017 Clemson Tigers on your Death to the BCS Championship, and good luck to you as you play for your second straight beginning on December 15th!

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