2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 8 Mock Bracket

We're still a little over a month away from Championship Saturday, which means I can't fully prepare an actual playoff bracket quite yet. But it's good to get the practice in, and in an alternate universe where this is the actual playoff format, it's good practice for the selection committee. And so, I undertake my third mock of the season.

This is a playoff system outlined in the book pictured to the left, written a few years back by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. The premise of the book is simple: the old BCS system of deciding a national champion was elitist, possibly illegal, and patently unfair. So they came up with a fairer one that enhances the regular season: 16 teams, made up of the 10 conference champions (11 when the book was written), with the rest of the field filled by at large selections. They play with home field advantage for the first three rounds, making the season really mean something, and meaning that my seeding of this tournament needs to be perfect.

To help decide the at large teams and seed the field, I look over scores and try to watch games if I can, but because I can't watch every game, I use several metrics to help me out. To a minor degree I check a team's non conference schedule in the form of Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS). At the end of the day though, I'm more concerned about results, which is why hopefully you read today's Playoff Points rankings, where I look at First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively). That's basically a look at win totals of defeated opponents in a few different ways. You can view a full outline of how that metric works in my season introductory post. Then, to ensure that I eliminate any possible bias I may have, I also check three different computer rankings that factor in margin of victory: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), the late David Rothman's via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors are all kind of organically combined to build out a bracket, which you can view the newest mock of after the jump.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 8

We continue on with our look at the 2017 college football season with a look back at the numbers from Week 8.

You've probably noted by now that by and large, I don't really go into individual results of games. This post takes into focus conference averages of win totals and more of an in depth look into how good teams actually are.

With these numbers in mind, combined with a few others, later today I'll come back with my third Death to the BCS Playoffs mock bracket. But for now, here are the updated Playoff Point numbers. In case you need a reminder of how these work, you can view that here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 7

Overall, it wasn't a great week for the coalition, though I personally can't complain.

For the first time since Week 4 of last year, we had a sweep, as I took all three of the games Adam and I disputed. Unfortunately, I can't be fooled by the ESPN standings; some entry errors on Adam's part early in the year have him with two more wins than the site gives him credit for. Even with that though, he's now one game back of Geoffrey Clark for first place in the group. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here. The most eye-popping stat to me: Geoff is 9-2 in hero picks. That'll usually get you ahead.

Adam is actually back up in Chicago this week, and on Monday we got to carpool home from work and get into general sports yak. Adam said that he was overdue for his bad week, and now that it's come and gone, he hinted that it may be time for one of his weeks of going insane with his picks. He didn't actually go insane though, and groupthink must really have come into play here. We only have two disputed games out of 15 this week, which I'm pretty sure is a record.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 8

We're halfway through the college football regular season now, with just seven weeks left to play. Only six of these weeks will actually involve full slates of games, with Week 14 being Championship Week. I'll get to that when the time comes though.

For now, we're focused on the upcoming schedule for Week 8. With conference play in full swing, there are very few non-conference games on the schedule, but they happen. With four independent teams, there's always going to be at least a few games that fit this banner. And that's before we get to Nick Saban Is A Coward Week, which is coming up in about a month.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at the schedule!

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 7 Mock Bracket

Last week I had just enough room in my first mock bracket of the season to squeeze in every eligible unbeaten team. And then, go figure, a bunch of them fell like flies.

This complicates the Death to the BCS Playoff picture, even though we still have a good month and a half of season left to play. Teams will separate from the pack a little bit more, and hopefully things will become easier, but in the meantime, I need the practice for bracket building.

So here's a refresher on how this works. The ten conference champions, along with six at large selections, will be seeded 1-16, with higher seeds getting home field advantage for three rounds. To pick out the at large teams and seed the field, I use several of my own metrics, focusing a little on Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) and more so on First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively) to help. Then, to help reduce bias, I use computer rankings that factor in margin of victory created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all get kind of organically combined to build the field. The Rothman rankings are up this week, so unlike last week, all three computer rankings will be under consideration.

So without further ado, let's make a mock bracket.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 7

I was waiting for the chaotic week. And go figure: the first week after I start doing mock brackets, all hell breaks loose.

I'll delve into how this affects the Death to the BCS Playoffs later today; I need time to look over the numbers. But we have to get the numbers first, and that's where this comes in.

You can view last week's rankings here. If you need a refresher on how each of the various Playoffs Points scores are calculated, you can view that here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 6

The coalition returns for more NFL picks, and now that we're a little ways into the season, I'm starting to get into the swing of things.

Through the first four weeks, I had made one hero pick and lost it. Last week I made up for it, going hero five times and winning three of them. It propelled me to winning my first week against Adam, taking four of our six disputed games, but Adam still holds a fairly solid lead at this point. However, he's out of first place as Geoffrey Clark took over the top spot with a couple more successful hero picks. He's 9-1 on those picks, and it's why he holds a narrow lead. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here, and our ESPN standings here, though bear in mind that Adam has two more points than ESPN says he does.

We move onto another 14 game week with the set of byes in place. Groupthink prevailed this round, as Adam and I disagree on only three games this time.