Sunday, June 10, 2012

Turn Up the Heat, Crank Up the Thunder

It certainly wasn't how we all thought it would happen. But one of the most expected Finals matchups coming into the playoffs ended up happening.

I had a chance to watch decent chunks of a lot of the conference finals games these past couple weeks. And really, these series were both really entertaining, albeit possibly tainted by officials. That being said, I'm convinced the two best teams will battle it out in the Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder
These guys have learned well from the years of San Antonio's success. This is a team that knows how to play team basketball, and they have a lot of firepower. We're seeing Kevin Durant grow up before our eyes. This team has run through a veritable gauntlet on its way to the Finals after sweeping through Dallas (who, to be fair, was nowhere near championship level after winning it all last year), taking care of business against the Lakers (with Durant out-clutching Kobe) and surviving those early losses to the Spurs before taking over.

It's hard not to love this team. Kevin Durant reminds me a lot of our own superstar here in Chicago in his humility but dominance on the court. Russell Westbrook can be a little bit of a Teen Wolf at times, which is a problem, but I think he's handled everything well this postseason. And it's hard not to love a guy like James Harden, who is willing to come off the bench because it helps the team. Beyond that, the role players here are going to have to bring it. Kendrick Perkins isn't much on offense, but he needs to figure out how to take advantage of the likes of Joel Anthony down low. And Thabo Sefolosha will have his hands full on defense (most likely on Wade).

I think the Thunder can do it, but that supporting cast needs to continue to step up. Having home court advantage helps too.

Miami Heat
I would probably be in the group of people a lot of folks (read: Heat "fans") who think I'm a "hater". I don't like LeBron James because of his perceived arrogance on the court, and I hate Dwayne Wade for his crybaby antics and dirty play (the regular flopping and I'm still not happy about that flagrant-that-wasn't against Indiana). They play more like individuals sometimes than as a team unit, and throw off the dynamic of what basketball is supposed to be about.

Having said that... Miami has been as resilient a squad as any this postseason, other than Boston, who they just eliminated. They survived the loss of Chris Bosh to hang on and get this far, and they've also survived Wade not playing very well overall. He's had some good games, but he's also had some lousy games. The biggest reason for this? The guy everyone loves to hate: LeBron.

It's seemed like since the Heat went down 2-1 to Indy in the semis, something snapped in LeBron. In the 10 games since, here's his lines (points-rebounds-assists):
  • 40-18-9
  • 30-10-8
  • 28-6-7
  • 32-13-3
  • 34-10-7
  • 34-8-5
  • 29-6-3
  • 30-13-2
  • 45-15-5
  • 31-12-2
For those of you scoring at home, that's 33.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 5.1 APG. I've bolded that pair of 40 point games for a reason; the first was his Game 4 against Indy, and the second was Game 6 against Boston. Those games were the only times the Heat have trailed in a series this postseason. When his team has needed him the most, he's been there. You can say what you want about the lack of 4th quarter chops, but I call these numbers clutch and MVP-caliber. He's raised his game to another level. You'll notice his assists are down from the regular season (4.9 to 3.9 total over the whole playoffs), but his points are going up.

Look at his expression from the past couple of games. He's bringing it all. Some people thought that 48 point game against Detroit in 2007 was his coming out party, though since then we've seen some major postseason meltdowns. This year it's different. This year's Miami team scares me. Wade has not been great and Bosh is still recovering a little bit from his strained abdomen, but LeBron has put the team on his back. But the role players are getting it done too. Mario Chalmers is building on his success from last postseason, and Shane Battier is hitting the open shots while playing good defense. That's what you need your team to do: let the superstars do their work, but you need your role players to step up and make a difference. These guys are doing that this year.

Make no mistake: the Finals will not end in Miami. This series will go back to Oklahoma City for at least one extra game, and I wouldn't be surprised it there are two. I think home court advantage (all OKC as they haven't lost at Chesapeake Arena) and the role players (advantage OKC as well) will play a factor. But most importantly: it's the superstars. The Finals make or break a superstar's legacy. Durant is not even in his prime yet, so his legend is not yet written. LeBron is 0-2 in the Finals so far, but he has a chance to raise his game and make a difference and earn himself a ring. He's earned his way this far. Whichever superstar outshines the other will lead his team to victory.

The Bulls fan in me wants it to be Durant and the Thunder. But if LeBron saddles the load and leads the Heat up the mountain, I hope the jokes stop. They will from me. 2012 is either his coming out party or his resignation back to the Barkley-Malone suite of stars who couldn't win it all. Either way, this will be a Finals to remember.

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