2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 4

The good news is that I had my best week of the season to date.

The bad news is that I'm still in last place.

We're onto another week of NFL picks against the spread. Whether it was random variance or Adam happened to be distracted by working in Detroit or wherever, I took three of our four disputed games from last week. It's got me back within one game of him while my dad remains in first place.

Things get a little complicated beginning this week as the bye weeks begin, so there will be fewer than 16 games for the next couple months. It'll make the math a little more complicated, but hopefully not too bad.

If you want to see a breakdown of everyone's picks based on consensus or lack thereof, you can view this breakdown spreadsheet. For this week, groupthink prevails again as Adam and I disagree on only three games out of the 15 being played. Let's get to the picks.

Thursday Night

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) 
Lucas: Bengals. When you need overtime to beat the freaking Browns, I'm not picking you. Cincy continues its turnaround.
Adam: Bengals. A decent Thursday night game all things considered. Miami only just survived the Browns last week. I like Cincy with A.J. Green and Co. by at least a touchdown.

Sunday Morning

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) 
Lucas: Colts. I love Sunday morning football. I just feel bad for the 32 loyal Jaguars fans that only get seven home games every year because their owner may or may not be secretly plotting to relocate them overseas. Semi-related note, really NFL UK? The best you could do for pregame entertainment was a guy who wrote a song glorifying rape?
Adam: Colts. Looks like Luck, despite the shoulder, is starting to click this season. And Holy TY Hilton.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Considering Atlanta's defense is about seven levels below Minnesota's, Kelvin Benjamin should get at least one catch this week. That should be more than enough to cover the spread.
Adam: Falcons. Going with the hot team right now. I know the Carolina defense is better than the New Orleans defense, but Ryan and his committee of backs looked the part. Plus the Panthers are not quite there yet this year.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I need to stop picking against the Patriots. Though I love Rex Ryan for jumping in on Julian Edelman's press conference to ask if he was playing quarterback.

Adam: Bills. Please please please let me see Edelman as QB. Haha.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Lions.

Adam: Lions. Bears a dog at home... how... why...

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (-8.5)
Lucas: Browns. Yes, Cleveland is awful, but more than a touchdown for Washington? Give me the points.
Adam: Browns. Giving the Brownies cred for last week against the Fins. Plus an 8.5 line is pretty high...

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
Lucas: Titans. J.J. Watt is hurt again, so I'm going to take the points and a possible back door cover. Get well soon, good sir.
Adam: Titans. RIP J.J. Watt 2016 Season.

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I may have underestimated Baltimore. I still think they're not as good as their record says, but at home against a West Coast team, I'll lay the points.
Adam: Raiders. Not sure why, just like Oakland in this spot. Should still be a close, competitive game.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets (+3.5) 
Lucas: Seahawks. Part of me wants to take the points, but when your quarterback throws six interceptions...
Adam: Seahawks. Decker may be out this week, leaving the Seahawks' secondary to double Marshall.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Lucas: Broncos. A majority of the Denver market may actually watch this one, seeing as Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots are calling the game instead of Jim Nantz and more so Phil Simms...
Adam: Broncos. Despite not having Manning and starting a QB who has never started before, the Broncos are still looking the part.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I can't believe I'm this high on the Cowboys this late in the season. Credit Dak Prescott for being legit.
Adam: Cowboys. How is this only a 2.5 point spread? Elliot and Preston will be going nuts this week.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5)
Lucas: Rams. I'm sorry, did I slip into an alternate universe where the Cardinals are 3-0, beat up on the Pats in Week 1 and not get beat up by the Bills last week? Why are they favored by this much?

Adam: Rams. Tough choice of do I take the points or the clearly better offense? I am taking the points at 8.5; that’s a bit high. Plus the Rams looked better last week.

New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5)
Lucas: Saints. I debated about making an "arrow to the knee" joke here, but decided against it given Manti Te'o's Achilles tear, Joey Bosa's hamstring injury lingering... this team is the walking wounded.
Adam: Saints. A little surprise San Diego is favored by more than a FG. Brees and Fleener seem to have found it and I would not want to play with the Chargers right now; it seems like someone gets hurt on each play.
Lucas note: ...the hell with it.

Sunday Night

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) 
Lucas: Steelers. BAH GAWD, THAT'S LE'VEON BELL'S MUSIC!

Adam: Steelers. What we need here is more cow Bell – nuf said.
Lucas note:

Monday Night

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) 
Lucas: Vikings. I look forward to a hefty helping of Manning Face this week.

Adam: Vikings. Very impressive so far this season and the Minnesota defense is very good this year. At home, I’ll give a few extra points.

Records Last Week
Lucas: 20-28 (9-7 last week)
Adam: 21-27 (7-9 last week)
Scott: 25-23 (7-9 last week)
Grant: 23-25 (9-7 last week)
Logan: 22-26 (6-10 last week)