2020 NFL Preview

 

Fear not, Confessions of a Sportscaster is back from hiatus!

The COVID-19 pandemic threw a huge monkey wrench into the world of sports that... I'm still not totally over. I kind of feel bad that I haven't written anything since feeling compelled to address a race issue on North Central's campus, but for a long time there wasn't anything to watch except for old sporting events. Then the NBA and NHL set up some bubbles and got started, which I took in some of.

But now the NFL season is upon us, and by some miracle (and largely timing of everything) the season appears to be going on as planned, with the only difference being a ton of empty stadiums for the time being.

So it's time to get back into the swing of things. With the college football season largely in shambles even though some FBS conferences are playing on as if nothing is happening, this means we won't see a 2020 Death to the BCS Playoffs, though I still have to simulate through the 2019 iteration. I have ideas for a pseudo-Tournament of Champions for the Death to the BCS Playoffs of the past that, time permitting, I may try to undertake. But more importantly... the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest is back for its ninth season as I try to maintain even year magic and retake my crown from Adam.

So with that in mind, I need to power through some NFL previews. Last year I condensed the eight posts, one for each division, down to two. This year I'm cutting it down to one and cutting back because I haven't paid a ton of attention to preseason training camps, and without preseason games or anything, it's hard to get a read on some things. But even so, I'm willing to put my neck out there and make predictions that almost certainly will go wrong.

2019 AFC Preview

We're just two days away from the start of the 100th NFL season, which means I have to finish up my preview series!

Yesterday I tackled the NFC as I condensed everything down for this season into two posts instead of eight. As I've done in years past, I will still do a little bit of a dive into each team along with my prediction for their season. At the end I will reveal my full playoff picture for the AFC.

You also have a couple days to get into the annual Confessions of a Sportscaster Pigskin Pick 'Em contest! Adam and I are renewing this feature for its sixth year (eighth overall going back to the origins of this), so check back here every week for our picks against the spread!

Without further ado or shameless plugging, let's look at the AFC.

2018 AFC East Preview

The NFL season kicks off in two days! We've almost made it!

I've worked my way around the rest of the country, and now we're down to just the East divisions in both conferences. Given the alternating pattern, we're starting with the AFC East today, which is a little weird still given that the Patriots are the Patriots.

I'm taking the opportunity once again to plug this year's edition of the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest which you can join here. Every Thursday (except for Thanksgiving, where it will get accelerated to the day before) I will be joined by Adam Quinn for our picks against the spread.

Until then, let's preview some more football teams.

2017 AFC East Preview

It's taken eight days, but we're finally here. The final division, and the home of our defending champions, gets the final look in my series of division preview posts.

One final time as a shameless plug, I will be picking NFL games against the spread this season, featured in a weekly post with my friend Adam Quinn. It's an open group if you would like to prove yourself as smarter than either of us, which may not be that hard. You can join here.

And so one final time, here's the division preview.

2016 AFC East Preview

Today will mark the halfway point as I work my way around the country previewing the upcoming NFL season.

As a general rule, I tend to get a lot of these picks completely wrong. It's the nature of the predictions business. Some picks are obvious, but every year there's always at least one or two teams that surprise in one direction or the other.

Before I get to the AFC, I want to do another shameless plug for NFL picks. Adam Quinn will be defending his title against me, and we will continue our weekly picks post for the third straight year and my fifth doing at least some on this forum. If you want to pick against us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Here's a look at our next NFL preview.

2015 AFC East Preview

Happy Labor Day! I hope you're enjoying your day off as we approach the start of the 2015 NFL season!

Today is the final day of NFL previewing, since with this I'll have a blurb on all 32 teams. If you want to go more in-depth for previews or see some different takes, my friends over at UKEndZone have done a bigger preview of every division in the past week or so as well. I'm also extending one final invitation to join in on picking games against the spread as part of my ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group. Adam Quinn and I will be back on Thursday with our Week 1 picks, and we'll be competing against my dad and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark this season. This should be fun.

And now, let's get our final division previewed.

AFC East

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC East

1. New England Patriots
2014: 12-4 (1st), won Super Bowl XLIX
I'm just going to start this preview by saying this: Roger Goodell is a tyrant who must be removed from office. Fortunately for the Patriots, Tom Brady stuck to his guns and a judge saw through the NFL's lies and slander and Brady will play all 16 games. This means certain doom, because if anyone is going to use the last few months to fuel his competitive fire, it's Brady. I see the pretty good ground game of LaGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray providing balance while Brady rains hellfire down upon opposing defenses with a good receiving corps and Gronk being Gronk. Defensively, this unit took a step back after losing Brandon Browner and Darelle Revis in the secondary, though Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler is probably ready to step up, though Bradley Fletcher on the other end concerns me. The rest of the unit is, overall, pretty solid. While this year is the best chance for the rest of the division to try and overthrow New England, there's too much firepower here, and you don't want to mess with a pissed off Brady.
2015 Prediction: 11-5

2. Miami Dolphins
2014: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
Of all the teams in the division best poised to topple New England, I think it has to be Miami. Ryan Tannehill has taken steps forward each of the last few years, but he's overpaid with his new contract. He does have good weapons though with Greg Jennings along to complement Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry. Lamar Miller is also poised for a breakout year, so the Dolphins will be able to put points on the board. Their defense, which was middle of the pack last year, will definitely improve solely with the addition of Ndamukong Suh. I think that alone has them in the conversation for the playoffs and the division title.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Buffalo Bills
2014: 9-7 (2nd), missed playoffs
Injuries abound with this Buffalo team going into the year, but they boast probably the best defense in the division, largely thanks to that defensive line. Their back seven isn't bad either, and they're going to be a thorn in the side of every team they face especially with Rex Ryan in charge. So why do I have them finishing third in the division? They're heavily banged up on offense, including with Lesean McCoy up in the air for Week 1. The receiving corps is very talented with Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin, as well as Charles Clay at tight end. The big question, like with every Rex team, is at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor was named the starter last week over guys like Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel, and Taylor has a total of 35 NFL passes on his resume. I think the inexperience will come back to bite the Bills a little bit.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. New York Jets
2014: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
Ah, the Jets... Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the year under center while Geno Smith recovers from getting punched in the jaw by IK Enemkpali. Both have some decent targets, including getting Brandon Marshall from the Bears in a deal they will love until Marshall decides to be a loudmouth idiot again. The ground game will help a little bit, but the fun part will be on defense. Darelle Revis returned to his original team and, along with Antonio Cromartie, will help lock down opposing passing attacks. The defense overall will be good thanks to new head coach Todd Bowles, but there's still just too much dysfunction here. They'll improve on their 2014 mark, but not by much.
2015 Prediction: 5-11

So with the entire NFL complete (I finished the NFC yesterday), here's your look at the AFC Playoff picture:

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
2. Denver Broncos (12-4)
3. New England Patriots (11-5)
4. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
5. Houston Texans (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Thus complete my NFL predictions for the 2015 season: some of which will be right, others of which will be not even close.

The next couple days, I will go back to college football with a look at results from Week 1 and how they relate to Playoff Points, then on Wednesday I will look at the Week 2 schedule from a non conference standpoint. Finally, on Thursday I will go back to the NFL as Adam and I (and possibly some special guests) bring you our Week 1 NFL picks.

Good luck to your teams this season!

AFC East Preview

We're back from the distractions! With Week 1 of the college football schedule numbers out of the way, I can return to NFL-related posting.

Today we head out to the East Coast and look at the AFC teams out there. It's all but been a one team division since the last expansion, but will there really be any difference this year?

Random aside before we begin: I'm still taking entries for another week in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em competition. Want to pick games against the spread with me and a guest picker on a weekly basis? Follow the link above to join for free!

All right, enough shameless plugs. Let's get to it.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC North

1. New England Patriots
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
As long as Tom Brady remains at quarterback for New England, the Pats will be the favorites in the division. The big question remains about their weapons though. When your best two wideouts are Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, you have to be slightly concerned, especially when Rob Gronkowski is still a question mark in terms of health. On defense, the Pats might finally have their stoppers at cornerback after signing Brandon Browner and picking up Darelle Revis. He may not be what we was four years ago, but Revis should be a big help to a middle-of-the-pack back end from last year.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. New York Jets
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Surprise, surprise: the big thing we heard out of Jets camp is big talk. It's what the Jets are best at. It only makes sense then that they picked up Chris Johnson in the offseason, though whether he can regain his form from his heyday remains to be seen. On the other side of the ball, linebacker Calvin Pace called this defense the best in the NFL. Um... no. There's definitely some good young talent in Dee Milliner and Calvin Pryor in the secondary. I'm not totally sold on the rest though. This isn't a bad team like they were towards the end of the Mark Sanchez era. Geno Smith needs to markedly improve from his rookie campaign though if the Jets want to compete.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Miami Dolphins
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Really, I'm not sure how last year could have gone worse for the 'Fins. They had the huge controversy with Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin; now both men are gone. Mike Wallace struggled in his first year in Miami, and will need to have a better year if the Dolphins want to compete. The defense is all right, and they added a decent safety in Louis Delmas, but the biggest what-if for Miami is Ryan Tannehill. He's been average in his first couple years, and needs to make a leap if they want a shot at the playoffs.
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Buffalo Bills
2013: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
EJ Manuel is in Year Two, and hopefully for the Bills is more prepared this season. He has a fun new toy to work with in first round pick Sammy Watkins. This might mean some serious passing yardage this year, we'll have to see. On defense Jairus Byrd is gone, and now there's something of a void in the middle of the field. The front seven isn't terrible though, depending on how well Mario Williams plays this season. It'll be a rough year I think though, as Manuel continues to go through some growing pains.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'll be back at it tomorrow as we switch conferences and go to arguably the weakest division in football in the NFC East. Also, I get to make fun of Jerry Jones again. Good times.

AFC East Preview

Another day, another NFL preview, even though we're only into the second day of it. It's a football week, what can I say?

So today we swap conferences but stay out east for the AFC. This has been a division that's undergone a lot of turmoil both in terms of personnel moves and legal ramifications. And injuries. It's been an interesting lead-up to the season out here. Without further ado, here's how I think these guys finish out 2013.

Common opponents: AFC North, NFC South

1. New England Patriots
Last year: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
I don't even know where to begin with these guys. First you lose Wes Welker in free agency (to Denver of all places), then Gronk ends up needing more surgery, and then the whole situation with Aaron Hernandez that I've actively tried to avoid. That leaves Tom Brady with the possibility of Gronk (assuming he isn't "Yo soy fiesta'ing" his way into a broken cheekbone after drinking shots of tequila and jumping headfirst into a 4-foot pool of Jello or something), Danny Amendola If He Stays Healthy (credit Bill Simmons), and Julian Edelman as his top receivers. His running game is pretty good though with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, and this is Brady we're talking about. If this were any other division though, I think we'd be talking about a major collapse.
2013 Prediction: 9-7

2. Miami Dolphins
Last year: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Look, I'm not entirely sold on Ryan Tannehill either. But he has some good weapons (Mike Wallace, rookie Lamar Miller) and it's only Tannehill's second year in the league. As long as he doesn't end up looking like Blaine Gabbert, he'll be fine. Defensively, I'm not 100% sold on their secondary, but their front seven doesn't look too bad. I think it's too early to think playoffs for these guys though.
2013 Prediction: 7-9

3. Buffalo Bills
Last year: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
CJ Spiller is CJ Spiller and he's going to put up plenty of yards. This isn't the issue. The issue continues to be the man taking snaps under center. Early in the 2011 season we all thought Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to be a good quarterback and help the Bills back to respectability. He fizzled, and their management decided to bring in... EJ Manuel with a first round pick! My friend and former WONC colleague Trevor, as the one Bills fan I know, was less than thrilled about this and took his frustrations to Twitter (here's a microcosm of the night. Really it was all around entertaining though.) But with Manuel a question mark, we're looking at Jeff Tuel as the Week 1 starter! On the other side of the ball, Jairus Byrd remains a good safety and the biggest question for me is whether or not Mario Williams can rebound. Trevor, I know you said 4-12 is generous, so I'm going to, at least for the next 5 seconds, pretend to be like Andrew Carnegie or something.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

4. New York Jets
Last year: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
So here we have a team that got gashed on the ground last year but was good against the pass, then instead of keeping their best defensive player (Revis Island) traded him away (in fairness, he was coming back from injury). Then in an effort to erase the laughter surrounding the circus franchise, they traded the source of the circus to whom they never gave a chance to salvage things, and now based on Sanchez possibly being hurt and Geno Smith being not very good, Greg McElroy might be your Week 1 starter. You know what? Just for posterity's sake:

2013 Prediction: 4-12
Come back Friday for the NFC South Preview! Tomorrow I'll be looking at how well college football team's set up their Week 1 schedules.

AFC East Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.

It's Monday morning, I still have a few days before my 4 day weekend, and there are still 7 more divisions left to tackle as we approach this final week of the preseason. Let's keep getting the East Coast out of the way by tackling the AFC East today.

AFC East
Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC West

1. New England Patriots
2011 Record: 13-3, lost Super Bowl XLVI

10 years ago if you had asked me who the best quarterback in the NFL was, after 12-year-old me told you Brett Favre was amazing, I would have gotten serious and probably told you Peyton Manning was tops, not really being aware of who Tom Brady was. Within the next couple years it seemed pretty obvious Brady had supplanted Manning despite his gaudier numbers just because Brady put up good numbers and his team won. Today Brady has considerable weapons at his disposal with Wes Welker grabbing just about everything thrown his way and that scary tight end combo (see how scary Gronk is?!) to throw hundreds of passes to. If last year is any indication, the Pats will give up a good chunk of yardage every week, but their offense should more than be able to make up for the points given up. I also figure (as my friend Nathaniel does in the link above) that Darth Hoodie's defense won't get quite as many takeaways as last year.

2. Buffalo Bills
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

This is a tough division to pick after New England winning it and making it back to the playoffs. Buffalo showed a lot of promise at the start of last season before falling way back down to Earth. They did spend money this offseason to lure Mario Williams to help anchor the defensive line. I still feel that opponents can gain some yardage against this defense, the offense should be in pretty good shape with Ryan Fitzpatrick adjusting following his long-term deal and guys like Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson (assuming he keeps his head on straight) helping him out. They won't make the playoffs I don't think, but they're continuing to move in the right direction.

3. New York Jets
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

This team's window is closed. While most teams will have some disagreements and maybe some scuffles during training camp, ESPN seemed fixated on multiple fights in practice amongst the Jets. They have some good skill players on offense like Shonn Greene and Santonio Holmes (assuming he can keep his head on straight), but Mark Sanchez is not a good quarterback. At best, he's an average one who can manage a game, and while I like Tim Tebow, he's can't make most of the throws an NFL quarterback needs to. This defense can still do some damage but they are a far cry from what they were 2 or 3 years ago.

4. Miami Dolphins
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

The Dolphins might be taking a step in the right direction. Starting a rookie quarterback is a bit of a gamble, but they're prepared to send Ryan Tannehill out to battle the AFC East schedule. It's a fairly forgiving schedule for him without too many tough out-of-division opponents, but he doesn't have a lot of weapons on offense (though he'll have time to find them being protected by Jake Long and company). Defense raises huge question marks though, as I think teams can both run and pass on these guys. You're probably looking at an early draft pick, especially if the on-court antics of Dwayne Wade infect the locker room. Heck, it's already spread out to the West Coast among non-humans.

Click to enlarge. From California Highway Patrol Computer Aided Dispatch, 8/19/12

Tomorrow we'll go down and attack the NFC South as we make our way around the country . We're a quarter of the way there!