Super Bowl LIII Predictions and Prop Bets

I'd say it's the most wonderful time of the year... but as I was starting to prep this Naperville was still facing subzero temperatures and wind chills that can only be described as "stupid cold."

But the biggest game in American sports over the course of a calendar year is upon us once again, and that means Adam and I have work to do!

In what has become another annual tradition, we've continued to make football picks into the postseason, and we expand that come Super Bowl Sunday to include some of the prop bets. We touch on a lot of the in-game stuff, of course, but I also like to dabble in some of the specials.

So below, Adam and I will give our Super Bowl picks, and then we will continue on to the prop bets.

The NFL Is Broken

I feel like there's a general rule with how I decide on topics for Confessions of a Sportscaster. There are the somewhat scheduled posts, either for the Death to the BCS Playoffs, Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, or Game Notes from North Central games. Then there's the unscheduled ones, where something happens and I feel compelled to write about it. It happened in September when the NFL couldn't figure out what the hell roughing the passer is. My most cited one is when Lance Easley and Golden Tate stole a win with their bullcrap (and make sure you see through The Ringer's lies; that play was not even remotely close to 50-50).

But Saints fans might be justified in thinking they got screwed over more than Green Bay did that fateful night in 2012. And Chiefs fans? They could serve as a catalyst for another rule change that's arguably just as important.

2019 NFL Championship Weekend Preview

It was another chaotic week at work, so I’m late getting these on record. But Adam just got me his picks, so we’re back to pick the conference championship games!

Formatting edits have been made to this post after the fact for readability. No changes have been made to the predictions.

2019 NFL Divisional Preview

It was a week full of chaos and a relatively heavy workload. And in Adam's case, being in a state of mourning and/or anger at Cody Parkey, so we're scrambling to get our Divisional Round previews up before kickoff!

We had a so-so Wild Card weekend, with Adam taking a narrow lead overall. But now the stakes are higher as the top two teams from each conference will make their 2018 postseason debuts this weekend.

Once again, below Adam and I will each have a little more in-depth analysis of the games this weekend and our final score picks, which will count as picks both straight up and against the spread.

Let's get to it!

2018 AFC East Preview

The NFL season kicks off in two days! We've almost made it!

I've worked my way around the rest of the country, and now we're down to just the East divisions in both conferences. Given the alternating pattern, we're starting with the AFC East today, which is a little weird still given that the Patriots are the Patriots.

I'm taking the opportunity once again to plug this year's edition of the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest which you can join here. Every Thursday (except for Thanksgiving, where it will get accelerated to the day before) I will be joined by Adam Quinn for our picks against the spread.

Until then, let's preview some more football teams.

Super Bowl LII Predictions and Prop Bets

And so as Super Bowl Sunday approaches, I need to do one final look at an NFL football game for this season. And as has become tradition, Adam will be joining me once again.

He beat me fair and square in the regular season in our Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, but we always do a special for the Super Bowl with some of the prop bets that you can make. We won't be wagering money; instead we're doing this with a point system: bet 100 points to win however many based on lines from Bovada.

Those will follow below. But first, here's how we're both predicting the Super Bowl to go.

2018 NFL Conference Championship Preview

After a decent picking weekend in the Wild Card round, I whiffed pretty badly in the Divisional Round. I went 1-2-1 against the spread and 1-3 straight up. Clearly, I needed to listen to Gregg Easterbrook's continued wisdom about the higher seeds being more successful in the divisional rounds.

And thus Championship Weekend is upon us, as we have our final four teams left. Three of the four quarterbacks still standing are quarterbacks who, before the season, I would have laughed at you for saying made it to this point; the fourth is Tom Brady.

But what happens from here? Let's take a look at each of the conference championship games.

2018 NFL Divisional Preview

Twelve teams entered, and now only eight remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. I've missed out on a quest to hit 11-0 against the spread and straight up. Clearly this is my punishment for correctly guessing the score of Super Bowl XLIII.

I did a decent job picking in the Wild Card round, getting three of the four winners, though underdogs ruled the day in terms of the point spread, leaving me 2-2 in that regard. We'll see what ends up happening this time, as historically the bye favors the home teams to the tune of a nearly 3 in 4 chance of advancing to the conference championship round.

So without further ado, let's look at the matchups for this weekend.

2017 AFC East Preview

It's taken eight days, but we're finally here. The final division, and the home of our defending champions, gets the final look in my series of division preview posts.

One final time as a shameless plug, I will be picking NFL games against the spread this season, featured in a weekly post with my friend Adam Quinn. It's an open group if you would like to prove yourself as smarter than either of us, which may not be that hard. You can join here.

And so one final time, here's the division preview.

Super Bowl LI Predictions and Prop Bets

It's become a true tradition unlike any other: Super Bowl weekend, and Adam and I are scratching gambling itches without spending any money... or at least I am.

I don't remember what last year's results on this were, but two years ago I won pretty much solely based on the Gatorade bath taken by Bill Belichick. Hopefully I won't need that this year to win. Like in prior years, we're going to make our picks for the game and enjoy a few prop bets; many are game-based, but we're also going to do some extra curricular ones because those are fun.

But first, here are our Super Bowl LI predictions.

2017 NFL Conference Championship Preview

We're down to the final four, and elite quarterbacks are the story in the NFL Playoffs.

It's conference championship weekend, and I'm trying to repress memories of what happened the last time my Packers made it this far. Fortunately, it's a different opponent and a different year, where anything can happen. On the other side, a pair of quarterbacks who have run this rodeo before return, as the two of them combined with the recently retired Peyton Manning have been to all but one of the last like 15 Super Bowls. For a league that claims to be all about parity, the AFC seems to run counter to that.

So without further ado, let's look at the two games coming up on Sunday.

2017 NFL Divisional Preview

We're fast approaching another weekend, and the NFL playoffs are in full swing. Just eight teams remain in the quest for the Lombardi Trophy, and the four best teams from this past season are back in action this weekend.

All in all, last weekend was relatively uneventful unless you're one of the idiots who's blowing the whole Giants-On-The-Boat thing out of proportion. Them spending the off day with their families back home or whatever probably wouldn't have changed their defense getting torched by Aaron Rodgers in the final 35 minutes of the game.

So with that out of the way, let's take a look at the four games on tap this weekend.

2016 AFC East Preview

Today will mark the halfway point as I work my way around the country previewing the upcoming NFL season.

As a general rule, I tend to get a lot of these picks completely wrong. It's the nature of the predictions business. Some picks are obvious, but every year there's always at least one or two teams that surprise in one direction or the other.

Before I get to the AFC, I want to do another shameless plug for NFL picks. Adam Quinn will be defending his title against me, and we will continue our weekly picks post for the third straight year and my fifth doing at least some on this forum. If you want to pick against us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Here's a look at our next NFL preview.

The Tyrant Wins Again

So I'm using a Crying Jordan meme as my cover photo for this post. Sue me. A, I think it's funny, and B, it pretty perfectly captures just what's going on in sports today.

The NFL has once again made headlines for a terrible reason as the Deflategate Phoenix rises from the ashes again. The US Court of Appeals reversed last year's ruling nullifying Tom Brady's suspension, and reinstated it effective immediately. A copy of the court's ruling can be found here. The CliffNotes version of it, based on my admittedly limited knowledge of legal mumbo jumbo, is that the NFL's collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Players' Association allows Roger Goodell a wide latitude of judgment power, and that what happened with Brady's arbitration hearing was within the scope of that power.

Again, based on how I understand the CBA and the law, the court appears to have gotten this one right. A court of law just isn't going to overrule the finding of an arbitrator in a labor dispute unless some very shady stuff happened. I think some shady stuff definitely happened in how the hearing was handled, but clearly the bargaining agreement allows Goodell this power.

So now, Tom Brady is out for the first four games of the 2016 season, barring an appeal either to the full Appeals Court or an appeal all the way up to the Supreme Court, neither of whom is likely to waste their time on an issue about footballs losing air pressure due to cold, wet weather. On the legal front, it's no surprise, and I'm not going to argue about how the court system got it wrong, because they didn't. This case was never about the evidence itself, it was about the process, which is apparently all good.

That last point is what should scare NFL fans, and more so players. Roger Goodell now has, for all intents and purposes, carte blanche to do whatever the hell he wants on a whim. Many people are thrilled with this decision because of confirmation bias and the NFL's smear campaign that will never go away because the league is too powerful. What is to stop Goodell from destroying another team's season based on misinformation? Per the collective bargaining agreement, nothing.

I touched on this back in September when the original ruling came down, and I want to bring up a similar point today. The agreement currently in place does not expire until 2020, and there are no opt out clauses. We have a few more seasons of this garbage, and there is only one way that we can make sure that this railroading never happens again: the NFL Players' Association needs to go on strike. This is clearly an extreme reaction, but it's one that I'm only half-joking about. I would be bummed to not have football on Sundays. But honestly, I think it's something that needs to be done. The only reason this fiasco is still in the news is because Roger Goodell's ego needed to be stroked. He couldn't handle continued embarrassment at the hands of a player, so he had to make sure that The Shield remained impenetrable, even if it meant going after one of the league's marquee players. How much more would Goodell do if it were a run-of-the-mill offensive lineman? Or a backup linebacker? The only way to make sure that this process is more fair for all involved is to force a change to the CBA, and the only way to do that is with a labor stoppage.

Unfortunately, with money to be made, I doubt the union will take this step, and the fans would riot if it did. This means we are stuck with a buffoon in charge of America's most popular sport, and because money continues to pour in, he's not going anywhere. And it's a damn shame.

2015 AFC East Preview

Happy Labor Day! I hope you're enjoying your day off as we approach the start of the 2015 NFL season!

Today is the final day of NFL previewing, since with this I'll have a blurb on all 32 teams. If you want to go more in-depth for previews or see some different takes, my friends over at UKEndZone have done a bigger preview of every division in the past week or so as well. I'm also extending one final invitation to join in on picking games against the spread as part of my ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group. Adam Quinn and I will be back on Thursday with our Week 1 picks, and we'll be competing against my dad and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark this season. This should be fun.

And now, let's get our final division previewed.

AFC East

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC East

1. New England Patriots
2014: 12-4 (1st), won Super Bowl XLIX
I'm just going to start this preview by saying this: Roger Goodell is a tyrant who must be removed from office. Fortunately for the Patriots, Tom Brady stuck to his guns and a judge saw through the NFL's lies and slander and Brady will play all 16 games. This means certain doom, because if anyone is going to use the last few months to fuel his competitive fire, it's Brady. I see the pretty good ground game of LaGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray providing balance while Brady rains hellfire down upon opposing defenses with a good receiving corps and Gronk being Gronk. Defensively, this unit took a step back after losing Brandon Browner and Darelle Revis in the secondary, though Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler is probably ready to step up, though Bradley Fletcher on the other end concerns me. The rest of the unit is, overall, pretty solid. While this year is the best chance for the rest of the division to try and overthrow New England, there's too much firepower here, and you don't want to mess with a pissed off Brady.
2015 Prediction: 11-5

2. Miami Dolphins
2014: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
Of all the teams in the division best poised to topple New England, I think it has to be Miami. Ryan Tannehill has taken steps forward each of the last few years, but he's overpaid with his new contract. He does have good weapons though with Greg Jennings along to complement Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry. Lamar Miller is also poised for a breakout year, so the Dolphins will be able to put points on the board. Their defense, which was middle of the pack last year, will definitely improve solely with the addition of Ndamukong Suh. I think that alone has them in the conversation for the playoffs and the division title.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Buffalo Bills
2014: 9-7 (2nd), missed playoffs
Injuries abound with this Buffalo team going into the year, but they boast probably the best defense in the division, largely thanks to that defensive line. Their back seven isn't bad either, and they're going to be a thorn in the side of every team they face especially with Rex Ryan in charge. So why do I have them finishing third in the division? They're heavily banged up on offense, including with Lesean McCoy up in the air for Week 1. The receiving corps is very talented with Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin, as well as Charles Clay at tight end. The big question, like with every Rex team, is at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor was named the starter last week over guys like Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel, and Taylor has a total of 35 NFL passes on his resume. I think the inexperience will come back to bite the Bills a little bit.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. New York Jets
2014: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
Ah, the Jets... Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the year under center while Geno Smith recovers from getting punched in the jaw by IK Enemkpali. Both have some decent targets, including getting Brandon Marshall from the Bears in a deal they will love until Marshall decides to be a loudmouth idiot again. The ground game will help a little bit, but the fun part will be on defense. Darelle Revis returned to his original team and, along with Antonio Cromartie, will help lock down opposing passing attacks. The defense overall will be good thanks to new head coach Todd Bowles, but there's still just too much dysfunction here. They'll improve on their 2014 mark, but not by much.
2015 Prediction: 5-11

So with the entire NFL complete (I finished the NFC yesterday), here's your look at the AFC Playoff picture:

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
2. Denver Broncos (12-4)
3. New England Patriots (11-5)
4. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
5. Houston Texans (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Thus complete my NFL predictions for the 2015 season: some of which will be right, others of which will be not even close.

The next couple days, I will go back to college football with a look at results from Week 1 and how they relate to Playoff Points, then on Wednesday I will look at the Week 2 schedule from a non conference standpoint. Finally, on Thursday I will go back to the NFL as Adam and I (and possibly some special guests) bring you our Week 1 NFL picks.

Good luck to your teams this season!

Thoughts From Super Sunday

Photo by Matt Slocum (AP)

Super Sunday delivered once again. We had a great game with some spectacular plays, and a phenomenal finish. Congratulations to the New England Patriots on their fourth quarter comeback and fourth Super Bowl title.

In the midst of all the chaos, I wanted to do a rundown of the best and worst of Super Sunday. I had the day off of work because of the North Central-Wheaton doubleheader on Saturday, though given the giant snowfall we had in Chicago, I wouldn't have made it in anyway. I got to prep for the game, watch it in its entirety, and got to spend the whole day with my wonderful wife and our two cats. So below, here are the best and worst moments from yesterday.

Super Bowl XLIX Predictions and Prop Bets

We're almost here! The day that should be a national holiday is upon us, and with it, the biggest game of the year.

Slowly but surely, I've gotten over the Epic Collapse of 2015 that resulted in this matchup in Arizona. It's a matchup a lot of people predicted coming into the year, and was made all the easier by the fact that these two teams were the top seeds in their respective conferences.

So who will win on Sunday: Seattle or New England? And what about the more fun part of Super Bowl Sunday: the prop bets?

Given the significance of the day, I've recruited some help. After giving me a run for my money in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em this season, Adam is back to do prop bets with me. We will have our picks for a variety of bets following our Super Bowl predictions. All bets are taken from a list provided by Bovada. Let's get to it!

AFC East Preview

We're back from the distractions! With Week 1 of the college football schedule numbers out of the way, I can return to NFL-related posting.

Today we head out to the East Coast and look at the AFC teams out there. It's all but been a one team division since the last expansion, but will there really be any difference this year?

Random aside before we begin: I'm still taking entries for another week in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em competition. Want to pick games against the spread with me and a guest picker on a weekly basis? Follow the link above to join for free!

All right, enough shameless plugs. Let's get to it.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC North

1. New England Patriots
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
As long as Tom Brady remains at quarterback for New England, the Pats will be the favorites in the division. The big question remains about their weapons though. When your best two wideouts are Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, you have to be slightly concerned, especially when Rob Gronkowski is still a question mark in terms of health. On defense, the Pats might finally have their stoppers at cornerback after signing Brandon Browner and picking up Darelle Revis. He may not be what we was four years ago, but Revis should be a big help to a middle-of-the-pack back end from last year.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. New York Jets
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Surprise, surprise: the big thing we heard out of Jets camp is big talk. It's what the Jets are best at. It only makes sense then that they picked up Chris Johnson in the offseason, though whether he can regain his form from his heyday remains to be seen. On the other side of the ball, linebacker Calvin Pace called this defense the best in the NFL. Um... no. There's definitely some good young talent in Dee Milliner and Calvin Pryor in the secondary. I'm not totally sold on the rest though. This isn't a bad team like they were towards the end of the Mark Sanchez era. Geno Smith needs to markedly improve from his rookie campaign though if the Jets want to compete.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Miami Dolphins
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Really, I'm not sure how last year could have gone worse for the 'Fins. They had the huge controversy with Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin; now both men are gone. Mike Wallace struggled in his first year in Miami, and will need to have a better year if the Dolphins want to compete. The defense is all right, and they added a decent safety in Louis Delmas, but the biggest what-if for Miami is Ryan Tannehill. He's been average in his first couple years, and needs to make a leap if they want a shot at the playoffs.
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Buffalo Bills
2013: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
EJ Manuel is in Year Two, and hopefully for the Bills is more prepared this season. He has a fun new toy to work with in first round pick Sammy Watkins. This might mean some serious passing yardage this year, we'll have to see. On defense Jairus Byrd is gone, and now there's something of a void in the middle of the field. The front seven isn't terrible though, depending on how well Mario Williams plays this season. It'll be a rough year I think though, as Manuel continues to go through some growing pains.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'll be back at it tomorrow as we switch conferences and go to arguably the weakest division in football in the NFC East. Also, I get to make fun of Jerry Jones again. Good times.

The Unofficial National Holiday

The biggest single day of sports is the first Sunday in February every year. For a weekend stretch of sports, nothing beats the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament, but the Super Bowl in and of itself is the biggest game all year.

I've put off thoughts about the game to come until just about the last possible minute. If you go by my original prediction, I only got 3 of 11 winners right. On a week by week basis I did much better; I correctly picked 6 of the 10 games correctly. It only makes sense that I predict the Super Bowl.

I foresee this as an offensive battle of epic proportions between two elite quarterbacks. Tom Brady is finally back on the biggest stage where he has excelled throughout his career. He will be somewhat limited offensively with Gronkowski recovering from an ankle sprain, but he still has Welker and Hernandez. Meanwhile Eli Manning has vaulted himself into elite status (while not on the same plane as Brady, but still elite) by making his teammates better. He has excellent receivers in Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham.

The other reason this will be a shootout? The Giants defense is ranked 27th, the Patriots 31st. Personally, I hate those numbers as the main statistic when it comes to measuring defense, so based on scoring allowed, the Patriots were 15th (21.4 PPGA) and the Giants 25th (25 PPGA). Still not great, so it strengthens the argument that we're going to see a shootout.

The toughest part? Predicting the score. I scoured the archives of Facebook to try to find my prediction for Super Bowl XLIII, only to be shot down by lack of status updates from back that far. But I have friends who are witnesses to the fact that I correctly predicted Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 and who will gladly back me up in this claim if asked. (And I'm also pretty sure there's audio evidence from the WONC archives I could dig up too... but I digress.) I did it once, so there's no chance in hell that I'll ever correctly predict the score again. But that won't stop me from predicting.

It'll be a high scoring game, and turnovers/sacks will have an impact, but it also seems like whoever has the ball last will win the game. My official prediction is Giants 34, Patriots 28. I figure New England will score a lot and can come up with some big plays to hold the Giants to field goals, but Eli is deadly late in ball games. Then again, so is Brady, but this game just has a similar feel to Super Bowl XLII... you know, except this year it's the Patriots everyone is doubting, myself included.

Whatever your plans are for the big game, enjoy yourselves, have fun, and be safe. And start crafting proposals for Super Bowl Monday becoming a new national holiday. You know, because no one will want to do anything the day after the big game.